The awesome news from Nate about the Senate
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/First there is the forecast about the Senate as a whole. 52.6 seats for us, 47.5 for them (we can assume rounding is why we have an extra 1/10 of a seat). If you had offered us a one seat loss or a no seat loss at the beginning of this election most of us would have leaped for joy at the thought. But, as Ginsu says, there's more. We have over 95% chances of seeing Warren elected, Brown reelected, over 90% chance Allen losing (again), and over 85% chances of Baldwin (first gay) , Murphy (big upgrade from Lieberman) winning and McCaskle (Akin losing) winning.
We could come out of this election with a better Senate than we have now. Let me repeat that, we could, and probably will, come out with a better Senate than we had coming in. Warren will be a vast improvement over Brown. Murphy will be a vast improvement over Lieberman. Baldwin will be a vast improvement of Kohl. King will be a decent improvement over Snowe. Add in some long shots and it could be even better. Kyl replaced by a Democrat (admittedly a very conservative one), Nelson replaced by Kerrey, Ensign replaced by a Democrat. In return, we have likely lost Tester and Conrad to GOP seats.
This is nothing short of amazing news.
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But the issue about someone's birthplace determining their eligibility to be President is wrong and should be changed for the good of all. 
1. Carmona is still the underdog to beat Flake. I've been rooting for Carmona for a while as some may know, but he's still down a point or two in the average of the polls, and Nate still shows him losing. What Carmona needs is for a larger than expected Latino vote to put him over the top. If the regular polls are underestimating that, he can win.
2. Jon Tester is also an underdog and also appears to be a point or two down, and Obama is also polling well below where he did in 2008 in Montana. Nate Silver currently shows Tester losing. Still, it's not over yet.
3. It looks like the Texas seat was never in play, unfortunately. Lloyd Bentsen will remain the last Democratic Senator from Texas for now. I was hoping that the Democratic nominee would be that cute young guy that ran for the nomination earlier this year. He seemed much more enthusiastic. 
4. I'm still a bit annoyed at Kent Conrad for retiring. If he hadn't retired this year the North Dakota Senate seat would still be safe. I felt his decision to retire was premature. I wish he had waited until the next cycle. Heitkamp has made up some ground lately, but as with the previous seats, Nate Silver shows her losing at the moment.
5. It looks like it may be tough for Berkley to win the Ensign/Heller seat. The race is close, but she will need a good number from Obama to get enough crossover support to win. Nate shows her losing right now, but Jon Ralston says it could be a long night before we know for sure.
6. The odds look very good for Warren, pretty solid for McCaskill and decent for Baldwin. Baldwin is the one I am perhaps most nervous about of these 3.
7. The question mark is also still there over the Lugar/Mourdock seat in Indiana. Nate's model still shows Mourdock winning, but it doesn't include the 2 recent internal Democratic and Republican polls. The Dem poll shows Donnelly (+7) and the Rep poll shows Donnelly & Mourdock Tied. We haven't really seen much Independent polling out of Indiana since the rape comments. Will there be enough women in Indiana willing to abandon Mourdock? That would be nice to see.
