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Nate Silver has Obama up (Original Post) courseofhistory Oct 2012 OP
Yes! nt aaaaaa5a Oct 2012 #1
Wow. Getting almost back to September levels! Alekei_Firebird Oct 2012 #2
Yippie skippy Thekaspervote Oct 2012 #3
And I think courseofhistory Oct 2012 #4
Great! Now I can relax. mary195149 Oct 2012 #5
No relaxing... Aviation Pro Oct 2012 #7
Actually, the way it's described is if your opponent is drowning,.... Spitfire of ATJ Oct 2012 #11
...for each hand. n/t agracie Oct 2012 #21
Actually a bag of rocks would be eaiser. Left Coast2020 Oct 2012 #23
...depends on the bag... Spitfire of ATJ Oct 2012 #25
Good stuff Presidentcokedupfratboy Oct 2012 #6
Just watched him tell Charlie Rose tonight that littlemissmartypants Oct 2012 #8
Great. Lex Oct 2012 #9
Wisconsin, Ohio, New Hampshire, Nevada, GallopingGhost Oct 2012 #10
Man I hope my state doesn't mess this up. AllyCat Oct 2012 #22
He recently tweeted that good Ohio polls mzmolly Oct 2012 #12
The Quinnipiac poll should push him to 80% then! Alekei_Firebird Oct 2012 #14
Unless he factored that mzmolly Oct 2012 #15
Maybe, but the poll's not supposed to be released until 7am Wed Alekei_Firebird Oct 2012 #16
No, I just checked TroyD Oct 2012 #17
Wow! mzmolly Oct 2012 #18
Nate Silver Update: 12:15 AM ET on Oct. 31 TroyD Oct 2012 #13
After Charlie Rose's grilling, this is sweet. SleeplessinSoCal Oct 2012 #19
This will piss off Joe Doucheborough Larkspur Oct 2012 #20
Obama will break 80% tomorrow due to the Quinnipiac poll, I bet Marsala Oct 2012 #24

mary195149

(379 posts)
5. Great! Now I can relax.
Wed Oct 31, 2012, 12:51 AM
Oct 2012

Need constant assurance because it is difficult to hear all the spin throughout the day and wonder if Romney will win with all his lies.

6. Good stuff
Wed Oct 31, 2012, 12:52 AM
Oct 2012

Sure hope it comes to be true.


"I said this train...
Dreams will not be thwarted
This train...
Faith will be rewarded" -- Bruce Springsteen

GallopingGhost

(2,404 posts)
10. Wisconsin, Ohio, New Hampshire, Nevada,
Wed Oct 31, 2012, 01:18 AM
Oct 2012

Likely Obama!

Colorado, Iowa, Virginia, Lean Obama!

And Florida back to toss-up!

AllyCat

(15,990 posts)
22. Man I hope my state doesn't mess this up.
Wed Oct 31, 2012, 03:00 AM
Oct 2012

I've voted already, pounding pavement tomorrow and Saturday. Possibly some phone calls later this week (my least favorite kind of volunteering). I just got my report from the Obama campaign about how much I have donated this election (I've never given this much before). Doing my part. Come on Wisco...lets make up for June and the miserable, horrible Scott Walker.

Four more years for President Obama!

mzmolly

(50,952 posts)
12. He recently tweeted that good Ohio polls
Wed Oct 31, 2012, 01:19 AM
Oct 2012

were very instrumental in the bump.

Nate Silver ?@fivethirtyeight (18m ago)

Obama up to 77% in tonight's 538 forecast (from 73%). He got decent polls in OH; model super sensitive to those. http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com

Alekei_Firebird

(320 posts)
16. Maybe, but the poll's not supposed to be released until 7am Wed
Wed Oct 31, 2012, 01:27 AM
Oct 2012

And the Mercury leaked it after his tweet, I think.

Maybe he factored it in. It'd be great if he didn't, but it doesn't matter a whole lot at this point. Just thought it'd be great to see Obama get up into the 80s again.

Obama will probably drop to the mid-70s soon, thanks to a conveniently timed Rasmussen or Gravis poll.

TroyD

(4,551 posts)
17. No, I just checked
Wed Oct 31, 2012, 01:32 AM
Oct 2012

Nate put the SurveyUSA (+3) OHIO poll for Obama into the model, but the new Quinnipiac poll to come out this morning is not in Nate's model yet. Obama is already at 78% in OHIO tonight, so maybe he will hit 80% in Nate's model tomorrow when he includes the new Quinnipiac poll.

TroyD

(4,551 posts)
13. Nate Silver Update: 12:15 AM ET on Oct. 31
Wed Oct 31, 2012, 01:20 AM
Oct 2012

Chance of Winning

Obama = 77.4%

Romney = 22.6%

----

Electoral Vote

Obama = 299.0

Romney = 239.0

----

Popular Vote

Obama = 50.4%

Romney = 48.5%

----

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/

SleeplessinSoCal

(8,950 posts)
19. After Charlie Rose's grilling, this is sweet.
Wed Oct 31, 2012, 02:16 AM
Oct 2012

Corporate Charlie can't hide his disdain for anything NOT corporate.

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