2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumNate Silver has Obama up
299 EV
77.4% Chance of winning
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/
Updated 12:15 AM ET on Oct. 31
aaaaaa5a
(4,667 posts)Alekei_Firebird
(320 posts)Thekaspervote
(32,491 posts)Thanks for sharing!! Can't WAIT to never hear of mittens and queen anneever ever again
courseofhistory
(801 posts)it will only get better after Mitten's multiple fiascos today!
mary195149
(379 posts)Need constant assurance because it is difficult to hear all the spin throughout the day and wonder if Romney will win with all his lies.
Aviation Pro
(12,018 posts)...until the win is in.
You never let your opponent see one sliver of daylight.
Spitfire of ATJ
(32,723 posts).....toss him an anvil....
agracie
(950 posts)Left Coast2020
(2,397 posts)Spitfire of ATJ
(32,723 posts)Presidentcokedupfratboy
(1,054 posts)Sure hope it comes to be true.
"I said this train...
Dreams will not be thwarted
This train...
Faith will be rewarded" -- Bruce Springsteen
littlemissmartypants
(22,332 posts)Obama is the winner based on his data.
Lex
(34,108 posts)Man I wish this thing was over.
GallopingGhost
(2,404 posts)Likely Obama!
Colorado, Iowa, Virginia, Lean Obama!
And Florida back to toss-up!
AllyCat
(15,990 posts)I've voted already, pounding pavement tomorrow and Saturday. Possibly some phone calls later this week (my least favorite kind of volunteering). I just got my report from the Obama campaign about how much I have donated this election (I've never given this much before). Doing my part. Come on Wisco...lets make up for June and the miserable, horrible Scott Walker.
Four more years for President Obama!
mzmolly
(50,952 posts)were very instrumental in the bump.
Obama up to 77% in tonight's 538 forecast (from 73%). He got decent polls in OH; model super sensitive to those. http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com
Alekei_Firebird
(320 posts)mzmolly
(50,952 posts)in, already?
Alekei_Firebird
(320 posts)And the Mercury leaked it after his tweet, I think.
Maybe he factored it in. It'd be great if he didn't, but it doesn't matter a whole lot at this point. Just thought it'd be great to see Obama get up into the 80s again.
Obama will probably drop to the mid-70s soon, thanks to a conveniently timed Rasmussen or Gravis poll.
TroyD
(4,551 posts)Nate put the SurveyUSA (+3) OHIO poll for Obama into the model, but the new Quinnipiac poll to come out this morning is not in Nate's model yet. Obama is already at 78% in OHIO tonight, so maybe he will hit 80% in Nate's model tomorrow when he includes the new Quinnipiac poll.
Thanks for checking.
I just discovered where you could find that info. Good to know!
TroyD
(4,551 posts)Chance of Winning
Obama = 77.4%
Romney = 22.6%
----
Electoral Vote
Obama = 299.0
Romney = 239.0
----
Popular Vote
Obama = 50.4%
Romney = 48.5%
----
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/
SleeplessinSoCal
(8,950 posts)Corporate Charlie can't hide his disdain for anything NOT corporate.
Larkspur
(12,804 posts)I'll have to take a peak at his show in the morning.
Marsala
(2,090 posts)Things are looking better and better!