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Wed Oct 31, 2012, 12:45 AM

Nate Silver has Obama up

299 EV
77.4% Chance of winning

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/
Updated 12:15 AM ET on Oct. 31

25 replies, 3907 views

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Arrow 25 replies Author Time Post
Reply Nate Silver has Obama up (Original post)
courseofhistory Oct 2012 OP
aaaaaa5a Oct 2012 #1
Alekei_Firebird Oct 2012 #2
Thekaspervote Oct 2012 #3
courseofhistory Oct 2012 #4
mary195149 Oct 2012 #5
Aviation Pro Oct 2012 #7
Spitfire of ATJ Oct 2012 #11
agracie Oct 2012 #21
Left Coast2020 Oct 2012 #23
Spitfire of ATJ Oct 2012 #25
Presidentcokedupfratboy Oct 2012 #6
littlemissmartypants Oct 2012 #8
Lex Oct 2012 #9
GallopingGhost Oct 2012 #10
AllyCat Oct 2012 #22
mzmolly Oct 2012 #12
Alekei_Firebird Oct 2012 #14
mzmolly Oct 2012 #15
Alekei_Firebird Oct 2012 #16
TroyD Oct 2012 #17
mzmolly Oct 2012 #18
TroyD Oct 2012 #13
SleeplessinSoCal Oct 2012 #19
Larkspur Oct 2012 #20
Marsala Oct 2012 #24

Response to courseofhistory (Original post)

Wed Oct 31, 2012, 12:46 AM

1. Yes! nt


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Response to courseofhistory (Original post)

Wed Oct 31, 2012, 12:46 AM

2. Wow. Getting almost back to September levels!

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Response to courseofhistory (Original post)

Wed Oct 31, 2012, 12:49 AM

3. Yippie skippy

Thanks for sharing!! Can't WAIT to never hear of mittens and queen anneever ever again

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Response to courseofhistory (Original post)

Wed Oct 31, 2012, 12:51 AM

4. And I think

it will only get better after Mitten's multiple fiascos today!

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Response to courseofhistory (Original post)

Wed Oct 31, 2012, 12:51 AM

5. Great! Now I can relax.

Need constant assurance because it is difficult to hear all the spin throughout the day and wonder if Romney will win with all his lies.

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Response to mary195149 (Reply #5)

Wed Oct 31, 2012, 12:55 AM

7. No relaxing...

...until the win is in.

You never let your opponent see one sliver of daylight.

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Response to Aviation Pro (Reply #7)

Wed Oct 31, 2012, 01:18 AM

11. Actually, the way it's described is if your opponent is drowning,....

.....toss him an anvil....

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Response to Spitfire of ATJ (Reply #11)

Wed Oct 31, 2012, 02:21 AM

21. ...for each hand. n/t

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Response to Spitfire of ATJ (Reply #11)

Wed Oct 31, 2012, 03:16 AM

23. Actually a bag of rocks would be eaiser.

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Response to Left Coast2020 (Reply #23)

Wed Oct 31, 2012, 04:31 AM

25. ...depends on the bag...

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Response to courseofhistory (Original post)

Wed Oct 31, 2012, 12:52 AM

6. Good stuff

Sure hope it comes to be true.


"I said this train...
Dreams will not be thwarted
This train...
Faith will be rewarded" -- Bruce Springsteen

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Response to courseofhistory (Original post)

Wed Oct 31, 2012, 01:00 AM

8. Just watched him tell Charlie Rose tonight that

Obama is the winner based on his data.

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Response to courseofhistory (Original post)

Wed Oct 31, 2012, 01:00 AM

9. Great.

Man I wish this thing was over.

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Response to courseofhistory (Original post)

Wed Oct 31, 2012, 01:18 AM

10. Wisconsin, Ohio, New Hampshire, Nevada,

Likely Obama!

Colorado, Iowa, Virginia, Lean Obama!

And Florida back to toss-up!

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Response to GallopingGhost (Reply #10)

Wed Oct 31, 2012, 03:00 AM

22. Man I hope my state doesn't mess this up.

I've voted already, pounding pavement tomorrow and Saturday. Possibly some phone calls later this week (my least favorite kind of volunteering). I just got my report from the Obama campaign about how much I have donated this election (I've never given this much before). Doing my part. Come on Wisco...lets make up for June and the miserable, horrible Scott Walker.

Four more years for President Obama!

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Response to courseofhistory (Original post)

Wed Oct 31, 2012, 01:19 AM

12. He recently tweeted that good Ohio polls

were very instrumental in the bump.

Nate Silver ‏@fivethirtyeight (18m ago)

Obama up to 77% in tonight's 538 forecast (from 73%). He got decent polls in OH; model super sensitive to those. http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com

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Response to mzmolly (Reply #12)

Wed Oct 31, 2012, 01:20 AM

14. The Quinnipiac poll should push him to 80% then!

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Response to Alekei_Firebird (Reply #14)

Wed Oct 31, 2012, 01:21 AM

15. Unless he factored that

in, already?

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Response to mzmolly (Reply #15)

Wed Oct 31, 2012, 01:27 AM

16. Maybe, but the poll's not supposed to be released until 7am Wed

And the Mercury leaked it after his tweet, I think.

Maybe he factored it in. It'd be great if he didn't, but it doesn't matter a whole lot at this point. Just thought it'd be great to see Obama get up into the 80s again.

Obama will probably drop to the mid-70s soon, thanks to a conveniently timed Rasmussen or Gravis poll.

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Response to mzmolly (Reply #15)

Wed Oct 31, 2012, 01:32 AM

17. No, I just checked

Nate put the SurveyUSA (+3) OHIO poll for Obama into the model, but the new Quinnipiac poll to come out this morning is not in Nate's model yet. Obama is already at 78% in OHIO tonight, so maybe he will hit 80% in Nate's model tomorrow when he includes the new Quinnipiac poll.

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Response to TroyD (Reply #17)

Wed Oct 31, 2012, 01:42 AM

18. Wow!



Thanks for checking.

I just discovered where you could find that info. Good to know!

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Response to courseofhistory (Original post)

Wed Oct 31, 2012, 01:20 AM

13. Nate Silver Update: 12:15 AM ET on Oct. 31

Chance of Winning

Obama = 77.4%

Romney = 22.6%

----

Electoral Vote

Obama = 299.0

Romney = 239.0

----

Popular Vote

Obama = 50.4%

Romney = 48.5%

----

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/

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Response to courseofhistory (Original post)

Wed Oct 31, 2012, 02:16 AM

19. After Charlie Rose's grilling, this is sweet.

Corporate Charlie can't hide his disdain for anything NOT corporate.

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Response to courseofhistory (Original post)

Wed Oct 31, 2012, 02:16 AM

20. This will piss off Joe Doucheborough

I'll have to take a peak at his show in the morning.

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Response to courseofhistory (Original post)

Wed Oct 31, 2012, 03:53 AM

24. Obama will break 80% tomorrow due to the Quinnipiac poll, I bet

Things are looking better and better!

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