The Nate Silver Backlash by Ezra Klein

[octoberlib]

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/ezra-klein/wp/2012/10/30/the-nate-silver-backlash/


....SNIP....Then there’s the backlash from more traditional media figures. Some of the arguments here have been downright weird, as when Politico’s Josh Gerstein wrote, “Isn’t the basic problem with the Nate Silver prediction in question, and the critique, that it puts a percentage on a one-off event?” Or when Politico’s Jonathan Martin wrote, “Avert your gaze, liberals: Nate Silver admits he’s simply averaging public polls and there is no secret sauce.” Or when Politico’s Dylan Byers wrote, “So should Mitt Romney win on Nov. 6, it’s difficult to see how people can continue to put faith in the predictions of someone who has never given that candidate anything higher than a 41 percent chance of winning.” Come to think of it, a lot of the odder critiques of Silvers have been coming out of Politico. But that makes a kind of sense. Silver’s work poses a threat to more traditional — and, in particular, to more excitable — forms of political punditry and horserace journalism.


More recently, we in the media — and particularly we in the media at Politico — have tried to grab an edge in the race for web traffic by hyping our election stories far beyond their actual importance. The latest gaffe is always a possible turning point, the momentum is always swinging wildly, the race is endlessly up in the air. It thus presents a bit of a problem for us if our readers then turn to sites like Silvers and find that none of this actually appears to be true and a clear-eyed look at the data shows a fairly stable race over long periods of time.
My guess is Silver and his successors will win this one, if only because, for all the very real shortcomings of models, election forecasters have better incentives than homepage editors.

[Orangepeel]

1. I watched the movie "Moneyball" last night.

There is a scene in the movie where a bunch of old baseball scouts are talking about the strengths and weaknesses of players and how their years of experience are better than the numbers that Johan Hill's character is using. It reminded me of the political pundits talking about Silver.

[Bigleaf]

2. Great read. Thanks!