My Dad Made a Good Point

[Doctor Jack]

We were talking about the election this evening and I said we only have a few days left and Nate Silver has an estimate that Obama has about a 75% chance of winning. So in the next few days, Romney would have to reverse Obama's momentum up and then completely overcome Obama's lead, in order to win the election. My dad then added, the "undecided" voters this late in the election usually don't end up voting. That is something that I have heard many times before, so really there are only a very, very small number of swing voters that are actually going to end up voting at this point. That would mean that in order for Romney to make up the deficit in the polls, he would have to strip off people that are currently polling for Obama. The problem, a huge number of Obama supporters have already voted. So in order for Romney to win, he has to stop Obama's momentum, and make up the deficit in voters with a fairly small number of voters that right now say they are going to vote for Obama, while not losing any of his soft support at the same time. He has just over a week to steal obama supporters, that are in the small group of Obama people that haven't voted yet, and use them to some how get to his strongest position of any point in the election.

That has to be an uphill climb that is virtually impossible. If you think about it like that, Romney's 25% chance of winning at 538 is probably way too high. Maybe these other sources that have Obama at 90+ chance of winning are closer to reality.

[amuse bouche]

1. I agree with your dad

Plus the undecideds have no passion about a candidate. It is very easy for them to just not bother

[justiceischeap]

2. I think some undecided's call themselves that but really, they're non-voters

It's embarrassing to admit you don't vote, especially in what's considered a crucial election.

[sandyshoes17]

3. I agree

I think alot of these undecided are non voters. I know alot of people who talk alot about politics and don't vote, so I can only imagine people that are undecided just don't understand politics, and it's best they don't vote.

[abumbyanyothername]

4. it's

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[Kteachums]

5. This is music to my ears!

I really need to hear this for real; "Obama wins"! I am a cancer patient, single mother with a daughter in college, teach school (planning on retiring this coming June). I am nervously hoping and praying for my President to win.

[Caretha]

6. Excellent point!

Your Dad is one smart feller.

[grantcart]

7. Nate had an earlier article months ago showing that undecideds usually break for the incumbent.

If they don't have a reason to vote for change these folks will tend to keep that which they know.

Your basic point is what Silver is saying about Ohio. Where there is a wealth of polling in a state there is no previous situation where it swung more than a point or two, but not 5 or 6