ARG poll of Ohio: Obama 49% (+2) Romney 47% (-1) Early Vote +11 Obama

[WI_DEM]

(Even ARG, one of the few polls to have Romney up in Ohio, is now putting Obama ahead):

Interview dates: October 23-25, 2012

Sample size: 600 likely voters

Margin of error: ± 4 percentage points, 95% of the time

Question wording and responses:

If the general election were being held today between Barack Obama for president and Joe Biden for vice president, the Democrats, and Mitt Romney for president and Paul Ryan for vice president, the Republicans, for whom would you vote - Obama and Biden or Romney and Ryan (names rotated), or someone else?

Ohio
Obama Romney Other Undecided

Likely voters 49% 47% 1% 3%

Democrats (43%) 87% 9% 1% 3%
Republicans (34%) 10% 88% - 2%
Independents (23%) 36% 57% 2% 5%

Men (47%) 43% 54% 1% 2%
Women (53%) 54% 41% 1% 4%

18 to 49 (52%) 52% 44% 1% 3%
50 and older (48%) 46% 50% 1% 3%

White (84%) 44% 52% 1% 4%
African American (11%) 93% 4% - 3%

Early voter (28%) 55% 44% 1% -
Election day (72%) 47% 48% 1% 4%

Oct 5-8 47% 48% 1% 4%


http://americanresearchgroup.com/pres2012/OH12-3.html

[leftyohiolib]

1. 2 more votes for potus from ohio

[NewsCenter28]

2. Boom!

0bama wins Ohio, he wins the election baby! Awesome numbers today. Wow!! Thanks for posting WIDem. I am feeling much better today than yesterday!

[Maximumnegro]

3. Early votes by 11%? Doubt it

The lowest so far has been SurveyUSA with 16%, with PPP, NBC, etc etc. consistently show much higher.

[WI_DEM]

4. yes, that is much lower than the CNN poll which shows +26

[TexasCPA]

5. Early voters have a very high MOE

600*28%=168 sample size. 7.56% MOE.