Wed Oct 24, 2012, 02:25 PM

Intrade shenanigans from last night are starting to recede

At one point last night, Obama's price on intrade was down to 52% due to market manipulation by big-money Romney supporters.

It is back up to 57% today and has been rising all day.

All the improving poll numbers for Obama have caused the money on the President to come rolling back in. And these folks are going to make a lot of money because of the shenanigans the Romney folks played yesterday.

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8 replies	Author	Time	Post
Intrade shenanigans from last night are starting to recede (Original post)	scheming daemons	Oct 2012	OP
Wish I had been in at 52 rather than 62, but still expect to do very well.	HERVEPA	Oct 2012	#1
Proving, yet again, that "big money" is insufficiently taxed.	aquart	Oct 2012	#2
65% tax sounds good to me.	MrYikes	Oct 2012	#3
Intrade is a very illiquid, self-selecting market that does not	geek tragedy	Oct 2012	#4
I am not sure why anyone pays	daa	Oct 2012	#5
Guess it's time to put the "market is self-correcting" thing to the test.	Chichiri	Oct 2012	#6
Maybe Trump will dump $5 million into Intrade	RomneyLies	Oct 2012	#7
Intrade is an outlier compared to other betting sites	gravity	Oct 2012	#8

Response to scheming daemons (Original post)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 02:27 PM

HERVEPA (2,606 posts)

1. Wish I had been in at 52 rather than 62, but still expect to do very well.

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Response to scheming daemons (Original post)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 02:31 PM

aquart (67,538 posts)

2. Proving, yet again, that "big money" is insufficiently taxed.

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Response to scheming daemons (Original post)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 02:33 PM

MrYikes (671 posts)

3. 65% tax sounds good to me.

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Response to scheming daemons (Original post)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 02:43 PM

geek tragedy (25,662 posts)

4. Intrade is a very illiquid, self-selecting market that does not

capture anywhere close to the best synthesis of publicly available data.

It's very much a lagging indicator.

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Response to scheming daemons (Original post)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 03:19 PM

daa (2,543 posts)

5. I am not sure why anyone pays

any attention to intrade, they are invariably wrong, kind of meaningless.

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Response to scheming daemons (Original post)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 03:22 PM

Chichiri (2,987 posts)

6. Guess it's time to put the "market is self-correcting" thing to the test.

If we assume that the $$ for Operation Fuck Up Intrade ran out yesterday, then the market should be back to where it was -- low 60s -- within a day or two. If it works, then they can point to some anecdotal evidence that the free market (pbu$) works.

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Response to scheming daemons (Original post)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 03:23 PM

RomneyLies (3,333 posts)

7. Maybe Trump will dump $5 million into Intrade

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Response to scheming daemons (Original post)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 03:25 PM

gravity (4,157 posts)

8. Intrade is an outlier compared to other betting sites

Other casinos and betting sites in Europe have the odds of Obama winning between 65 -70%.

http://www.oddschecker.com/specials/politics-and-election/us-presidential-election/winner

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