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[GeorgiaPeanuts]

This message was self-deleted by its author (GeorgiaPeanuts) on Tue Apr 19, 2016, 10:24 PM. When the original post in a discussion thread is self-deleted, the entire discussion thread is automatically locked so new replies cannot be posted.

[sasmath]

1. Wow

[redstateblues]

2. Tad Devine disagrees. He knows it's not happening

[GeorgiaPeanuts]

4. Nah Tad Devine was doing the expectations setting circuit

The idea is to tell the media a story that makes reality more impressive

[brooklynite]

21. Or maybe, Tad Devine was protecting his own reputation?

Oren's want to be blamed for the boss's faux pas?

[JackRiddler]

22. What, now it's a faux pas for a candidate to say he will win?

Your own post below (#3) refutes that.

[brooklynite]

25. No, it's a faux pas to immediately pull the rug out from under the boss...

[brooklynite]

7. Tad threw Bernie under the bus almost immediately...

"I think he's said we're going to win every State we've been in..." (on Hardball).

[dchill]

32. Yeah, you might want to check those new first time registration numbers.

Get ready to be bummed.

[brooklynite]

3. When was the last time you heard a candidate say "We will lose here next Tuesday"?

[OhZone]

5. LOLOLOLOLOL suuuuure LOLOLOLOL nt

[RandySF]

6. This is it

I bet he drops out next Wednesday

[morningfog]

9. His drop out has been predicted as "next week" for months now.

It's like you are all waiting for Godot.

[NanceGreggs]

27. No, we're just waiting ...

... for Bernie to look at the numbers and admit that he's already lost.

If he thought he had a prayer of pulling off a win in NY, he wouldn't be flying to Italy for a ten-minute "speech" - he'd be on-the-ground in NY, making sure he got every last possible vote out of the state to ensure that his "win" was YUGE!!!.

It's been over for Bernie for a while now. When he finally acknowledges that fact is up to him - and his campaign manager, who continues to collect big bucks based on the "we can still win this thing" fairytale.

[morningfog]

29. Keep waiting!

Over 7 million people have voted for him. He's within 214 pledged delegates of the Clinton machine.

A lot can happen two months. We need Bernie to stay in to sweep up the ashes if it all blows to hell. He has the support, the message and those who contribute to him a quite satisfied with how he has spent the money, they keep giving it.

[NanceGreggs]

36. Yeah, his contribtutors ...

... just keep "giving it" - as though those delegate numbers are going to magically change.

[morningfog]

38. You know what's crazy? They have changed!

Not by magic, but by votes. From a 325 lead, Hillary is now 214 ahead.

More magic ahead.

[NanceGreggs]

39. And BS still can't overcome her lead.

He's running out of primary states to win in - he's running out of delegates to secure.

This primary process is not infinite. Eventually, there are no more contests, no more voters, no more delegates.

There is NO path to victory for Bernie - unless huge swaths of HRC supporters in the remaining primary states suddenly abandon her and vote for Bernie.

Now, just how probable do you think that is?

[morningfog]

41. 1,647 pledged delegates left.

Bernie needs 931.

The calendar is interesting in that the biggest single delegate hual day left is June 7, the last day (other than DC-20 a week later). That means he wouldn't mathematically run out of days until the last day.

If he breaks even or loses tight from now until Jube 7, he can go into the last day needed 56-60 per cent. That's still tough as hell and not likely. But a shit ton can and will happen in two months. Two months is an eternity in a presidential race. Two months ago, only Iowa and NH had voted.

we're going the distance.

[NanceGreggs]

42. If you want to believe ...

... that Bernie is going to surpass Hillary in votes/delegates in the remaining contests, you are free to do so.

But eventually, reality kicks-in for everyone.

[morningfog]

43. This has nothing to do with belief.

Strange choice of words. No I don't "believe" that will happen, nor would be "belief" change anything. I doubt it will happen. I have written that repeatedly. But he isn't dropping out and he won't be mathematically eliminated in the pledged delegate race until June 7, if he ever is.

And I'll support him in the primary until the primary it over.

[NanceGreggs]

44. "And I'll support him in the primary ...

... until the primary is over."

That's wonderful. Just be aware that the primary is over when one candidate can't overcome the other's numbers.

[morningfog]

47. It's over when one candidate concedes.

[NanceGreggs]

48. It's over when one candidate ...

... acknowledges that they have no possibility of overtaking the vote/delegate numbers of their opponent.

The numbers are the numbers. Whether Bernie "concedes" or not is of no consequence.

[morningfog]

58. That is not true. But, it seems to help you to repeat it.

Have another go!

[SoLeftIAmRight]

54. you are one of the funny ones

it will be over in the summer

see you in philly

[Schema Thing]

62. why are you advocating for Oligarchy?

[SoLeftIAmRight]

46. i will take that bet - really - put you money where your mouth is

waiting ...

[2banon]

8. I kinda think you missed the part where he says "If the turnout is high, we win"

Hi compadre,


found this the comment section:

What Sanders said is *if* "the turnout is high, we will win, if the turnout is low we will lose".

[ProudToBeLiberal]

10. Click on the video clip in the link. He says he will win a major victory without any preconditions.

nt

[tralala]

14. Maybe he means a moral or symbolic victory

[oasis]

11. MAJOR pie in the sky prediction.

I believe in this guy too.

[sadoldgirl]

13. If she wins by 53-56% in her own "home state"

what does that tell you?

Considering how he won in VT, that's not
very convincing now, is it?!!

[brooklynite]

19. It tells me Sanders won't get enough delegates to catch up.

[bigwillq]

15. If Sanders wins NY, it will be a major victory for his campaign

It just might be a game changer.

I do think Ms. Clinton will win NY but if Bernie did win, it would be major.

[Betty Karlson]

52. Registration of new (mostly young) voters suggests that he WILL win.

And no amount of Debbie-ing will change that.

[Demnorth]

56. I can tell from

the context that you're a Sanders supporter, but I can't for the life of me figure out what "Debbie-ing" is? Would you mind explaining the origin?

[demwing]

60. Refers to Debbie Wasserman Schultz

an her rigging the primary in favor of Clinton

[Demnorth]

64. Oh yes,

thank you, the Chair of the party. I had heard of her, but didn't make the connection.

[Tarc]

16. If Sanders cracks 45%, that would be a "major victory"

[GeorgiaPeanuts]

17. Will you say that if he achieves that election day?

Sienna poll has 52%-42%

[Godhumor]

18. Which would put him off his delegate target by around 40-50 delegates

There are no moral victories left. Bernie needs delegates, lots of them, and he needs them fast. Losing NY by ten percent might be considered a better than expected performance, but it also effectively closes every possible path for Bernie except the extremely unlikely massive blowout in California strategy.

Bernie doesn't need to keep it close--he needs a convincing win to have any realistic shot left.

[brooklynite]

20. Zephyr Teachout got noticed for doing better than expected against Cuomo...

She still lost.

[artislife]

24. She may limp to a nomination win

but she do so on a major losing streak. Her chances in November look dire.

[NuclearDem]

30. Clinton delegate lead before NC/FL/OH/IL/MO: +206

Clinton delegate lead before NY: +216

She went through Bernie's "favorable map" and came out further ahead in delegates than she did going in.

[RepubliCON-Watch]

33. That's not true.

She was projected to win in every one of those states you listed. Virtually 3 solid Clinton wins and 2 ties followed by a long winning streak. Looks like Bernie is doing okay up to this point.

[NuclearDem]

35. So, Clinton has "3 solid wins" and "2 ties"

and still comes out ahead after five Sanders landslides and two other Sanders victories.

Which sort of reinforces the point I was making; Sanders is blowing through states and barely making a dent, which he can't sustain in the long run.

[RepubliCON-Watch]

37. I don't know about barely making a dent...

It seems as though he should still be down 250+ in the delegate count if he wasn't making a dent. And assuming Bernie pulls off NY and wins the vast majority of the remaining states, that delegate lead can go away rather quickly. If Hillary can add 100 delegates, then Bernie can do the same thing. Might be on 4/26 or on 6/7, but either way it's going to cut REAL close. Fun times ahead!

[artislife]

49. And lose in the GE. nt

[Tarc]

26. Probably not, no. I was just being polite. :)

a 10 point loss in NY would put his needed winning margin in the rest at 59%.

[ecstatic]

23. Keep those donations coming (suckers!)!

[senz]

45. I'll keep donating as long as he's running

because he stands for everything I, too, believe in.

What does your candidate stand for? The 1%? Or maybe just her ego?

[artislife]

50. They think Bernie supporters are suckers

but h supporters should read "What's the matter with Kansas" to figure out what they are actually supporting.

[senz]

51. They think anyone with a heart, soul and conscience is a sucker.

I'm not sure they'd even care about Thomas Frank's book. They seem to think issues are boring.

It's great not being them.

[artislife]

53. True!

[ThePhilosopher04]

57. Gladly. I think I'll pitch in another 27. Thanks for reminding me. #FeelTheBern

[NuclearDem]

28. Did you expect him to get up in front of the crowd and say "eh, it's a toss up"?

The polling must be so good that he can afford to go to a whole other continent for 48 hours.

[CoffeeCat]

55. Hillary is going to a whole other state for 48 hours

Hillary has two fundraisers in California with George Clooney, one on Friday night, one on Saturday night.

I actually think it's bizarre that she is not staying and campaigning. But I suppose those fundraisers were organized and scheduled long ago.

They'll both be out of New York state the weekend before this big election on Tuesday.

[KingFlorez]

31. No candidate is ever going to say anything to the contrary

[Kalidurga]

34. Thank you Bernie usually understates his chances

I expect a double digit win.

[Skink]

40. This debate is gonna rock

So Hillary tell us about those wall street speaking events. Give us a little sample. We are all ears.

[Starry Messenger]

59. He'll make an awesome President of Park Slope.

[BainsBane]

61. Right, that's why he's leaving the country.

Bookmarking for Tuesday night.

Looks like (from the rec count) that even his supporters are having trouble buying this sort of thing time and time again, given that he loses so many races he boasts about winning.

[MineralMan]

63. I predict that we'll know who won on Wednesday morning.

That's the only prediction that's sure to come true.

See you on the 20th.

[Renew Deal]

65. .