2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumLatest Huffpost/Pollster New York chart showing Hillary steady and Bernie sinking.
http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2016-new-york-presidential-democratic-primary#!mindate=2016-01-01&estimate=custom
Looking good for a big win in NY for Madam Nominee!
bettyellen
(47,209 posts)onehandle
(51,122 posts)CAG
(1,820 posts)GeorgiaPeanuts
(2,353 posts)DCBob
(24,689 posts)GeorgiaPeanuts
(2,353 posts)Have done more than one NY poll?
Only Emerson and it jumped 30points.
Comparing different pollsters is not a good idea, they use differing methodologies and different demographic distributions
DCBob
(24,689 posts)They have been following this model ever since the primaries process started last year.
GeorgiaPeanuts
(2,353 posts)Huffington post just presents the available data
DCBob
(24,689 posts)I suspect I will be correct.
Cheers!
azurnoir
(45,850 posts)DCBob
(24,689 posts)azurnoir
(45,850 posts)DCBob
(24,689 posts)azurnoir
(45,850 posts)DCBob
(24,689 posts)Its an option to build graphs based on dates and other choices. Try it you might like it.
azurnoir
(45,850 posts)all anyone has to do is click the link
DCBob
(24,689 posts)You need to check it out yourself. Clearly you are not aware of how it works.
riversedge
(70,482 posts)OilemFirchen
(7,143 posts)workinclasszero
(28,270 posts)Check that big downward sinking Sanders line!
DCBob
(24,689 posts)Lets see the trend when the next polls come out.. I suspect you will be correct.
RoccoR5955
(12,471 posts)Than call me Captain James Kirk!
DCBob
(24,689 posts)RoccoR5955
(12,471 posts)In my dictionary, to surge means to increase suddenly and powerfully, typically during an otherwise stable or quiescent period.
Clinton is NOT surging.
fun n serious
(4,451 posts)Many of Bernie Sanders donors are asking for a refund. Lol..
livetohike
(22,172 posts)Lucinda
(31,170 posts)workinclasszero
(28,270 posts)Seems like a good time for a little violin music.
IamMab
(1,359 posts)People finally paid attention to the man behind the curtain.
JudyM
(29,294 posts)Bernie was being kind by not calling him an idiot. The fed doesn't have authority to break up the banks but the interviewer kept acting and asking as if it did.
IamMab
(1,359 posts)JudyM
(29,294 posts)Folks here prefer intelligent substance to empty snark.
IamMab
(1,359 posts)JudyM
(29,294 posts)IamMab
(1,359 posts)Welcome to DU!
Thinkingabout
(30,058 posts)Sanders still does not have a viable plan on how to break up the banks. Sanders did come across as one able to answer questions a president will need to answer. Actually I felt sorry for Sanders, it was too much for Sandees.
riversedge
(70,482 posts)SidDithers
(44,228 posts)Sid
hrmjustin
(71,265 posts)DCBob
(24,689 posts)We shall see.
Surya Gayatri
(15,445 posts)magical thyme
(14,881 posts)March 29 was Quinniapac
April 1 was YouGov
April 7 was Fox & Emerson.
They are using different polling methods, sizes, audiences, etc.
For example:
Emerson 3/14-16 Clinton 71; Sanders 23
Emerson 4/6-7 Clinton 56; Sanders 38
So in ~3 weeks Clinton is down 15; Sanders up 15
Quinniapac 5/28-6/1/15 Clinton 55; Sanders 15
Quinniapac 3/22-29 Clinton 54; Sanders 42
So in 10 months, and with other candidates dropping out, Clinton is up 1 and Sanders is up 27
Fox and YouGov apparently haven't polled NY since before May of last year, if at all.
DCBob
(24,689 posts)Hundreds of posts from the Bernie clan.. "BERNIE BLOWING HILLARY OUT IN NEW YORK... YUUUUGE!!
magical thyme
(14,881 posts)March 29 Quinniapac, April 1 YouGov, April 7 Fox & Emerson.
In the meantime, I don't see anybody posting about his dramatic rise in the Emerson poll, which timing-wise is probably the most meaningful simply because the prior poll is recent enough to reflect when he started campaigning in NY.
So I guess I'll do it here: BERNIE SURGING IN NY.....YUUUUUGE!
DCBob
(24,689 posts)Sure the data is limited but that's no reason to ignore it.
magical thyme
(14,881 posts)I cannot believe I'm actually agreeing with Buzzclick
I can't even begin to imagine what that means for the world....
DCBob
(24,689 posts)The trends show Hillary is stable at 50+ and Bernie has peaked and is probably sinking.
magical thyme
(14,881 posts)you have to look at individual pollsters over time, or an average of the same group of pollsters over time.
Sorry, but this simply doesn't show anything significant at all. As a lab tech who monitored real trends in quality control for a few dozen different reagents that were tested on a daily basis for years, I can assure you this does not in any way, shape or form qualify as a trend. Not. Even. Close.
If you showed surveys from a single pollster repeated over time, then you might see a trend. But YOU CANNOT SHOW A TREND WITH ONE SURVEY EACH FROM DIFFERENT POLLSTERS. It simply doesn't work that way.
DCBob
(24,689 posts)Its standard procedure.
Buzz Clik
(38,437 posts)The only trends that matter are the two weeks or so leading up to the vote -- April 1 on. No one is going to spend the money necessary for polling twice in that period (New York might be the exception), so look at the reliability of the polls from previous performances. Emerson, YouGov, and Qunnipiac are the ringers at this moment.
Sanders could easily cut the lead in half or even reduce it to one third of current. We'll know more one week from today.
Important to note is that this is a fully closed primary with the date for registration changes having past over a month ago. That is a very, very bad omen for Sanders. A 6+ point loss is quite likely.
magical thyme
(14,881 posts)just as trying to compare results from 4 different polling organizations is meaningless.
As I just wrote in my post above this, the only one that is at all meaningful is the Emerson, since there is an Emerson poll from 3 weeks ago to compare it to. That shows Bernie trending up starting right about when he started campaigning in NY.
magical thyme
(14,881 posts)Closed primaries with registration last October favors Clinton.
Same day voting favors Sanders, but probably not as much as above favors Clinton.
Large presence of college students favors Sanders.
Wall Street favors Clinton.
Victims of Wall Street favors Sanders.
And so on.
The bottom line is that, as with everywhere, for Sanders it continues to be an upward climb.
Buzz Clik
(38,437 posts)magical thyme
(14,881 posts)Now THAT will be YUUUUGE!
karynnj
(59,511 posts)Just add more smoothing and take the whole times series rather than truncating the beginning.
Quite different:
http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2016-new-york-presidential-democratic-primary#!smoothing=more&estimate=custom
In fact, there are not all that many polls.
DCBob
(24,689 posts)You have to view the image then copy the image address then post that in the message text.
karynnj
(59,511 posts)DCBob
(24,689 posts)DemocratSinceBirth
(99,719 posts)After all as we have been reminded, ad nauseam and ad infinitum, he's the Prodigal Son returning.
DCBob
(24,689 posts)The Bernie bunch are really getting nervous. This could be the end.
Buzz Clik
(38,437 posts)karynnj
(59,511 posts)Otherwise the series is Sanders gaining ground. Not to mention, one of those polls - Emerson had an earlier poll that was so much of an outlier that DCBob's choice of smoothing as well as this one completely ignored it. The other is the first Fox News poll.
The fact is that there has not been a lot of polling yet.
DCBob
(24,689 posts)Bernie hadn't even announced then.
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,719 posts)I left NYC in 1970 as a kid. If I returned to NYC tomorrow I would be lost.
karynnj
(59,511 posts)which was when he was first polled because there was talk he was running - He informally announced he was running on April 30, 2015.
It doesn't look much different if you cut out that March data point.
What you can say is that HRc has been in the low to mid 50s the entire time. The early Emerson poll is clearly an outlier. It is also clear that Sanders has risen to the high 30s/low 40s. The real question will be with the contest actually in NY can he gain the needed 10 - 12 points to tie her. Very few non partisan people have suggested he can. It would be a major upset if he tied or beat her.
DCBob
(24,689 posts)I think they way I did it is the most logical and has the most relevance to reality.
karynnj
(59,511 posts)You are smoothing 7 data points for each -- one of which gets thrown out. It would be better just to plot the 14 points - without lines. There really is not that much data.
I told you what I would conclude from that data:
1) Clinton has polled in a very narrow range in all polls in the last year -- ignoring the one outlier. That is in the low to mid 50s.
2) Bernie has risen to be in the high 30s/low 40s.
3) In most primaries - this year or past years, there is often greater movement in the last weeks.
4) Few people covering NY think that Bernie can suddenly gain the 10 to 12 points needed to tie Clinton.
Given the precision of the estimate, the strange performance of Emerson, I do not think there is yet enough information to speak of Bernie falling. It is possible, but the difference is within the confidence intervals for the polls. (That there are 2 is better than 1, but you can't make a strong statistical case for it.)
DCBob
(24,689 posts)It's just a trend of data points bit I think its real. There will be new polls coming out soon that will help clarify what is going on.
Thinkingabout
(30,058 posts)DCBob
(24,689 posts)Aint gonna happen.
Thinkingabout
(30,058 posts)DCBob
(24,689 posts)Thinkingabout
(30,058 posts)@
chillfactor
(7,595 posts)RoccoR5955
(12,471 posts)and these polls this year have been consistently off, don't you?
I take them with a grain of salt, because I have faith that the carpetbagger shall lose!
DCBob
(24,689 posts)BTW, the only polls that have been off have been the caucuses and the open primaries. NY is a closed primary. All of the previous closed primaries had accurate polling.
RoccoR5955
(12,471 posts)I still know New Yorkers, and I say that the polls are off.
DCBob
(24,689 posts)DemocratSinceBirth
(99,719 posts)DCBob
(24,689 posts)Why did Bernie abandon New York and move to lovely "clean" Vermont?
Armstead
(47,803 posts)I know know there must be something sinister for anyone to have a preference for trees and mountains and fresh air and human scale of life in tutal New England.
What evil motive did he have?
DCBob
(24,689 posts)Armstead
(47,803 posts)Last edited Sun Apr 10, 2016, 10:25 PM - Edit history (1)
A guy who almost gets his skull cracked to protest segregated housing isn't likely to object to living in the vicinity of AAs.
I live in rural New England and a lot of people move here for many reasons. Ultimately most do because they prefer the human scale of life andthe better physical environment and the ability to breathe, figuratively and literally.
I find your statement to be either very uninformed, reverse bigoted or cynically political.
RoccoR5955
(12,471 posts)I guess you have never been there. There comes a time when you have to get out of the congested city, or you go crazy! The place can literally drive you nuts. I know, because I moved out of NYC myself!
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,719 posts)RoccoR5955
(12,471 posts)Raised in Queens? What part? My grandmother lived in Laurelton.
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,719 posts)But I moved to FL when I was eleven thus making my NY ties somewhat tenuous. My dad owned a luncheonette in Redfern and then a candy store in Jamaica.
My aunt lived on Lincoln Road in Brooklyn and my grandfather lived in Brighton beach.
RoccoR5955
(12,471 posts)Rego Park and Forest Hills are far more better off areas than where I lived. I lived in Canarsie, Brownsville, and Flatbush. I moved to Midwood, then Bensonhurst, then out to New Paltz. I was 25 by then. I just couldn't stand being a strap-hanger on those cattle cars they call subways during rush hour. I would eventually leave about 1/2 hour early and take the train back to Coney Island so I could at least have a seat.
Now the Mid-Hudson bridge traffic is getting to me. Well at least I only have 13 months more of it before I retire. But if Drumpf or some other RepubliCLOWN gets in office, I'm done, I'll move to Europe. I can get an EU passport as an Italian, because my grandfather was an Italian. The Italian government considers me an Italian citizen. I just have to get a load of paperwork to them. I am working on getting it, just in case.
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,719 posts)My parents were far from well off... They operated a candy store and luncheonette together. My pops had a ninth grade education but my mom was good with money so she ensured we lived in a nice neighborhood.
RoccoR5955
(12,471 posts)My dad didn't even have a High School education. We lived in the projects. We were one of about a dozen white families in the projects when I grew up. That's probably another reason why I had to get out of there.
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,719 posts)Google Redfern Projects.
riversedge
(70,482 posts)Surya Gayatri
(15,445 posts)Beacool
(30,254 posts)Last edited Sun Apr 10, 2016, 08:49 PM - Edit history (1)
I know that Sanders and his campaign want to push that meme, but it's not based on the reality on the ground.
DCBob
(24,689 posts)and less diverse states with open voting. New York is of course a diverse state with a closed primary.. not a good scenario for Bernie.
SharonClark
(10,014 posts)anotherproletariat
(1,446 posts)their support based on his apparent lack of substance.
DCBob
(24,689 posts)and has impact.
RoccoR5955
(12,471 posts)And they did a good job of hitting him with questions that I don't think that ANY candidate could answer.
I wonder what Clinton's answers would have been, had they asked her similar questions, and how they would have played it.
riversedge
(70,482 posts)Marr
(20,317 posts)No need to work at all. Hillary can just slide right into her first victory in... what is it, eight states now? Yep-- just take the next two weeks off! This one's in the bag!