Obama is running up margins bigger than Kerry in '04 in almost every state...

[Drunken Irishman]

And we're to believe the national popular vote gap is actually bigger than the one Kerry saw eight years ago? It's impossible. Even if you factor in population shifts between 2004 and 2012, it still doesn't add up. Even if you want to include the South, which heavily favors Romney, it still doesn't add up. Obama is out-polling Kerry's final results in Texas, Georgia, Florida, Virginia and North Carolina ... the five largest southern states.

Even in bluer states, like California, Obama is doing seven points better than Kerry did in 2004. He's doing better in Colorado, New Mexico, Iowa and Ohio (four states Kerry lost) and has bigger margins than Kerry in Minnesota, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Michigan - four states Kerry won, but not by huge margins.

While national votes matter ... they're still voted on at the local level. People in Ohio are voting in the national popular vote. For these numbers to work, for Romney to outperform Bush by a point or more, he would need to run up his margins in states he's either losing or barely winning. The fact Obama leads New York by 30 points and Kerry won it by 'only' 18 points tells me everything I need to know about these national polls.

They make no sense. They don't add up. Obama isn't winning New York by 12 points more than Kerry eight years ago and actually doing worse in the popular vote than he did. Obama isn't winning Ohio and losing the popular vote by a larger margin than Kerry in '04.

It just isn't happening.

[RomneyLies]

1. Obama is lagging behind Kerry DRAMATICALLY in the South

He's being pummeled by 32 points in the South.

He leads all other geographic regions handsomely.

Romney could well lose huge in the Electoral College and still win the national popular vote by one or two percent due to how badly Obama is doing in the South.

[ProSense]

4. Romney and the media could

"He's being pummeled by 32 points in the South."

...be in for a surprise if they believe that BS, which is all based on their assumptions about the white vote. There are parts of the South in which Mitt drastically underperformed in the Republican primary.

[Drunken Irishman]

5. No he's not.

That's the fallacy of national polls. If you go state by state, only a handful of small populated southern states are where Obama is lagging behind Kerry. In the bigger states, like Florida, Virginia, Texas and North Carolina, Obama is far outpacing Kerry's final numbers.

[get the red out]

7. Do points = number of votes?

Many southern states don't have the population that a lot of northern and midwestern states do. My own state of Kentucky only has a few million people. I know Texas is huge, but California is more populated. Florida is heavily populated but it's a toss-up and even if Romney wins it will be by a small number. I don't know if there is a "point to point" ratio between the north and the south numbers-wise.

[Drunken Irishman]

10. That's just it.

Kerry lost Florida by 5 points. It's possible Obama loses it by that margin, but most likely, if he doesn't win it, it'll be by a narrower loss.

Kerry lost Georgia by 17 points. The latest poll there put Obama down 8 - nearly a 10 point improvement.

Bush won North Carolina by 12 points. Obama might lose North Carolina, but it won't be by 12 points.

Bush won Virginia by nearly 9 points. At worst, right now, Obama is tied there.

Bush won Texas by 23 points. Obama is most likely losing it by 10-15 points - an improvement.

Sure, in Arkansas or Kentucky or West Virginia, his numbers are worse ... but those states don't matter and certainly the bigger margins in more populous states drown that out - like California, New York and Illinois ... three of the five largest states in the U.S.!

[lalalu]

8. Not all of the south.

Some southern states are definitely going to Romney but it is closer than the media pretends. Many southern states have a lot of military people and President Obama is very popular with them.

[leftynyc]

11. Big deal

mitt could take every southern state by 75% and it still wouldn't matter. Winning the electoral college is all that matters and if the President loses the popular vote, so what?

[CoffeeCat]

2. We know the media is bought off--as their tout their "What a horse race!" meme...

...So why in the hell wouldn't the polls be bought off too?

We need to just GOTV.

Vote, vote, vote and don't worry about what the bought-and-paid-for media with their bizarre polls are revealing.

Plus, Rasmussen (a known Republican) and Gallup (a pure propaganda tool) are accurate indicators? PLEASE!

[oldhippydude]

3. yep those numbers havent felt right..

and seemed to go real crazy on the first debate.. feels all media driven

[lalalu]

6. Is this behind Romney's debate performance?

I suspect President Obama is doing better than the lying national polls. Which is why Romney almost endorsed President Obama and is now Mr. Moderate. His performance was really strange and went beyond his normal Romnesia.

[HockeyMom]

9. I moved from NY to Florida in 2007

Think I changed my views by moving South? Not at all. If anything, because I am now surrounded by Teabaggers, it has INTENSIFED how I feel. I am alone in this?

[gottavote]

12. Polling does nothing for Get Out the Vote. GOTV where you see campaigning. This means YOU.

My best motivational GOTV Story involves former governor of New Jersey Jim Florio. His GOTV staff quit in the early evening on election day to get ready for this reelection party. He lost the race by less than 1800 votes in a state of 8 million people. Next two weeks should be voter contact, voter contact, more voter contact. Anyone can participate. Limit your online and media time. The polls really are meaningless now. Give at least one day to direct campaigning by phone or in person. Give election day if at all possible.

WE can do it.

[Jennicut]

13. Which is why winning the electoral vote usually follows what the popular vote is showing.

I would say this meme that Obama is losing the popular vote is based on about two polls. Rasmussen and Gallup. The rest are 2 to 3 points for either Obama or Romney and one is tied.

Pollster has it tied at 47%. Pollster tends to count every single poll out there instead of RCP.

Obama could win in a few swing states and win by a few million votes. It is just hard to tell in a close election. It depends on who you poll, how you poll and where you are doing the poll.