Rasmussen

[JiminyJominy]

Rasmussen has not yet updated but I have a feeling when it does some of us aren't gonna be happy. Lets remember our guy won the debate last night but it takes a few days for things to trend down and we'll see our good results in a few days.

[FBaggins]

1. Drudge teases that it's 50-46.

There wouldn't be any significant post-debate impact.

[Mass]

2. They have not, but RCP has the ratings. R by 4.

Also PPP has R by 2.

[ip5683]

3. Latest

First day after third debate:

Rass 50 R 46 O

Gallup 52 R 45 O

Favorable 50 R 45 O

Why isn't this changing for us?

[fugop]

4. Because none of that is post debate

[FBaggins]

7. One of those is a 7-day rolling average

The other is a 3-day average.

Neither poll could have gotten more than a handful of calls in after the debate.

How much impact were you expected from... say... a five point bounce out of 20% of a one-day sample that makes up 15% of the weekly average? That wouldn't be even a rounding error.

[alcibiades_mystery]

11. That's not the latest Gallup

Pay attention.

[cry baby]

5. Good god...it takes days for polls to show any bounce. nt

[DemocratSinceBirth]

6. Your Concern Is Duly Noted.Thank You For Your Input./nt

[timber84]

10. Thank you.

Glad I'm not the only one.

[oldsneakers]

8. Polls

I haven't visited DU in a long time since I live in the UK but I do remember the last time I was here quite a few of us were in a panic that President Obama was in real danger of losing the election to McCain. I've been told I'm a fair statistician when it comes to reading and predicting poll results so allow me do give a prediction:look for Rasmussen to have President Obama up by (least) 2 points by 26-10!
Check back in a few days. While I can't legally vote in the states I am a big Obama supporter, in more ways than one.

thanks

[renate]

35. thank you!

Lucky you, to be living in the UK!

[outsideworld]

9. Always add

+3 to any dem in a rass poll

[JackN415]

12. How much have you made so far for these posts? I like that Romney is generous, Jiminy Cricket?

[leftynyc]

13. National polls are meaningless

Who cares if mitt wins the southern states by 60% margins? But feel free to obsess about them while the rest of us watch the swing states.

[MadBadger]

14. Obama approval at 50 but support at 46

No thanks

[demvoter4life]

15. Is that why Intrade went from 39% to middle 40s?

One stupid rasmussen report at +4?. Intrade went up to 47? It is now fluctuation from lower 40s. Is something Major going on? I never saw a jump that big so quick. 11% in a few hours. As long as its just nonsense and not a news story then its just noise. If I had romney shares I would sell them all now. and everyone is buying them?

[DemocratSinceBirth]

25. LOL- I Looked At Intrade, Saw The Drop, Knew Something Was Up

Then I saw it was a bad Rasmussen Poll.

[mgcgulfcoast]

16. rasmussen is moving toward gallup

not good at all.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

17. Your Concern Is Duly Noted.Thank You For Your Input./nt

[mgcgulfcoast]

18. what should i do?

says the polls are all wrong? i expected gallup to come back to rasmussen, not the other way around.

[fugop]

20. No, please express even more concern.

It's kind of fun at this point to predict where concern will come from. I"m getting pretty good at it. I'm thinking maybe we should start a concern thread, for all concerned posters to go. Although, I guess any thread with Rasmussen or Gallup in the title is just as good at drawing concern, I guess. That concerns me.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

21. I Would Look At The Sites Where The National And State Polls Are Aggregated But That's Just Me/nt

[Mass]

19. Or not.

R 48.4 ---> 48.6
O 45.6 ---> 45.4

Does that change the race fundementally? No

But by rounding up, you move from R 48, O 46 to R 49, R 45.

Not saying this is what happened. Just saying there is no way to know, and no reason to spend time on these types of polls, except for fun.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

22. Or maybe we can just look at all the polls instead of the saddest and happiest./nt

[Mass]

23. Or none.

We are in a situation where polls are all over the place. Even an average is useless at this point.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

24. Well...The Average Can Be Skewed By Outliers. That's Why I Prefer To Look At The Median.

And Sam Wang who nailed 04 and 08 doing just that has O as a prohibitive favorite*. Now, he could be wrong. Just because he's a genius and teaches neuroscience at an Ivy League university doesn't mean he's infallible but until he and others who are using similar methods are proven fallible I will remain guardedly optimistic.

What's the alternative. Being miserable for the next two weeks.


PEACE
DSB





*Wang only uses state polls.

[courseofhistory]

36. Do you have a link please? Thanks! n/t

[DemocratSinceBirth]

41. Here

http://election.princeton.edu/


http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/


http://electoral-vote.com/

[ProudProgressiveNow]

27. +1

[DemocratSinceBirth]

33. Statistics 101

The median is a better indicator than the mean because the mean can be skewed by outliers. Bill Gates walks into a restaurant with nineteen patrons. The mean net worth of the patrons become $3 billion dollars.

[mzmolly]

40. Rasmussen has a worse record than Gallup.

eom

[politicman]

26. stop freaking out, polls are tied or Obama is leading

People need to take a chill pill and look at all the polls.

The following are the polls from Monday:

Gallup - R 6 points
Politico - R - 2 points
Monmouth - 3 R 3 points
Rasmussen - R 4 points

CBS - Obama 2 points
ABC - Obama 1 point
IBD/TIPP - Obama 4 points
Was/times - Obama 3 points

Quinnipac Ohio - Obama 5 points


(Now, which of the above polls would you find more credible?

The ones that dont include cell phones which show Romney leading OR the ones that include cells which show Obama leading?

At worst its a tied national race with Obama still ahead in the swing states OR its Obama leading by a slight margin whilst also being ahead in the swing states.

Also, PPP just came out with a poll today showing a tied race which is an improvement for Obama from last week when they had Romney ahead by 4 points.

[ProSense]

28. So Rasmussen

shows a gain, even as the Daily Kos/PPP poll shows Mitt losing 4 points?

http://www.democraticunderground.com/1251167688

OK!

[lolamio]

29. Obama is leading in the swing states. This is what I am focused on. I can't be bothered with..

National polls from outfits like Rasmussen or Gallup. It's not worth my energy.

[BlueDemKev]

32. Yep. If the national popular vote meant anything...

...The Bush-Cheney Disaster never would have happened. Let's play with the cards we're dealt--that being, getting at least 270 votes in the electoral college.

[Jennicut]

30. Rasmussen is showing R plus 4 with Obama's approval at 50%.

I could laugh but I don't need to.

ABC, CBS and NBC have it a tied race or Obama ahead. Remember, Gallup and Rasmussen were terrible in 2010. And the Battleground poll really broke it down for us yesterday. Obama is ahead in the midwest and west and east but really behind in the south. Romney can drive up all of his numbers among that region all he wants to and still lose the Presidency.
I throw it into the average with the rest of them but isn't it funny that the big failures of 2010 polling are dragging the average in national polling down for President Obama?

Honestly, this is about a tied race and any poll that says otherwise I just shrug at, even IBC/Tipp. This will come down to certain swing states. I mean, PPP had it tied today. Look at the outliers and just ignore them.

[demvoter4life]

31. Did PPP do another Poll or what?

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/102010211022TrackingPoll.pdf

I have different numbers then you guys show. PPP todays date romney +2
I know they use Robo call and it doesnt matter, but what is up with 2 polls?
this one had today's date on it.

[OKNancy]

38. Nate Silver 538

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/

[woolldog]

34. Ok. I'm panicking now.

I keep expecting these numbers to get better and they're not. Is it just a matter of time before the state polls start reflecting this?

[ProSense]

37. Don't. Daily Kos/PPP showed Mitt losing 4 points and another

poll showed Obama gaining:

New UPI/Cvoter Poll O48 R48

Haven't seen this anywhere else but HuffPost.

10/16 - 10/23 1,162 LV O48 R48

Here's link to Scribd docoument.

Last UPI poll I could find was from 10/12/2012 - 10/18/2012 Obama 46 Romney 48 so Obama is up 2 from last poll.

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/10/23/1148828/-New-UPI-Cvoter-Poll-O48-R48

[woolldog]

39. Thanks ProSense

This sucks. I cannot believe it's so close. I know we have the electoral lead, but I'm terrified at the thought of Republicans winning and being rewarded for being assholes the last 4 years.