Why Mitt Romney Might Be Even Weaker Than You Think

[babylonsister]

Why Mitt Romney Might Be Even Weaker Than You Think

Kyle Leighton February 24, 2012, 6:13 AM 18844 176


Mitt Romney’s got a problem.

Purple Strategies released their “Purple Poll” on Thursday, data from twelve swing states the showed former Senator Rick Santorum (R-PA) in a better position to beat President Obama than former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney. It wasn’t by much — overall, Santorum was down two against the President versus a four point Obama advantage on Romney. But for the former governor, who has collected the most delegates, endorsements and cash so far, it’s not great.

But even less great: Romney’s favorability numbers are lower - much lower - than any other frontrunner candidate of either party at this point in the race in recent presidential elections.

“His favorable ratings are just atrocious,” Doug Usher, a managing partner at Purple Strategies and a veteran of the Kerry Campaign and other Democratic efforts said. “You can’t be sitting on 27 percent favorability in the general,” the level Romney is at in their new numbers.

“The best thing that Mitt Romney could do is actually run a campaign that said something,” Bruce Haynes, one of the founding partners of Purples Strategies and a veteran of GOP campaigns, told TPM. “It’s a Seinfeld campaign. It’s a campaign about nothing. It was good for nine years of TV. But Mitt Romney is going to to have to deliver a commitment and a promise to voters. If he is delivering one, it’s not breaking through.”

more...

http://2012.talkingpointsmemo.com/2012/02/why-mitt-romney-might-be-even-weaker-than-you-think.php?ref=fpb

[Pab Sungenis]

1. Yeah, but look at the graph for John Kerry.

See that sudden plunge right before the election? That's the Swiftboating at work. A 25 point swing.

Don't count Willard down yet; complacency has killed more than one campaign.

[morningfog]

2. Obama is an order of magnitude better campaigner than Kerry.

I take your point on complacency. But, we've not seen the opposite of swiftboating, where someone who has such high unfavorably is able to turn that around. The more people see of Mitt, the less they like him. He is genuinely unauthentic.

[still_one]

3. That may be true, however, with the supremes decision to all unlimited money to go to candidates the

airwaves can be blasted with lies and distortions 24/7, and the joke we call the media will be only to happy to accommodate

[morningfog]

4. All the money in the world can't make someone unlikable likable.

And the nastier RomneyPACs get, the more unlikable he becomes. This is a big reason for his high unfavorables now, he has been waging nasty campaigns and driving his favorable numbers down.

[politicasista]

7. Good to know Obama has more respect for Senator Kerry than most ever will

Too bad Dems and liberals would rather throw our own under the bus instead of being glad that he is helping our President.

Interesting. The K campaign sucked, but Obama has some of those same people working for him.

[XemaSab]

11. Kerry's like Romney in that he was hard to connect with

I know a lot of people really liked Kerry, but for me he seemed to lack passion for the campaign and the issues. I saw him give a speech on CSPAN and Theresa was standing right behind him and she spent the entire speech playing with her jewelry and looking totally bored. It was kind of appalling, really. But I felt the same way about Kerry's speech. I felt like he wasn't speaking from the heart, and I feel the same way about Romney.

I can't stand Newt or Santorum as politicians, but I could see sitting down and having a bee... DINNER with either of them. (I think Newt would actually be really interesting to talk to.)

With Romney it would be like having dinner with someone you're about to break up with. You might be able to pull off polite chit chat, but I can't see having an interesting conversation or laughing or gaining any insight.

Obama has many shortcomings as a politician, but he doesn't ever seem like a cardboard cutout. And the real person beats the fake person... most of the time.

[politicasista]

16. Yep. That's what the media said

Kerry is fake without a heart. The media said that, so it must be true!

And those in the DU Kerry group would take exception to everything in your post, but guess that many will never, ever forgive him for beating their favorite from 04.

Thanks for doing the GOP's work for them.

[XemaSab]

18. It's 2012

If the GOP is planning on beating John Kerry in this year's presidential election, more power to them.

Meanwhile, even though I think John Kerry is a fine individual and a good senator and I was happy to vote for him, I still think he has all the charisma of a brussels sprout.

[politicasista]

22. Ok, except Romney is a jerk.

Senator Kerry has more integrity in his bare hands then Rmoney ever will.

As for the charisma part. People will never get that except those who actually got him. To each his own.

Peace.

[starroute]

6. The graph says all the data is from February of the election year

So I think the different bars are for different polls taken around the same time.

And while it's true that Kerry's approval ratings took a hit from the Swiftboating in August, his problem by that point was more that he'd failed to get anybody really enthusiastic about him.

http://www.usnews.com/opinion/blogs/susan-milligan/2011/12/29/2012-republicans-risk-repeating-john-kerrys-2004-mistakes

Democrats in 2004 thought there was so much dislike of former President George W. Bush that their candidate would win almost by default. But Sen. John Kerry lost, in no small part because he didn't give voters a clear and optimistic vision of where he would take the country. True, a lot of people disliked Bush. But not enough of them really liked Kerry—at least not enough to make the extra push in a close election. The opposing party in any election often proclaims that a presidential contest is a referendum on the current occupant of the White House. Had that been true, Kerry would have beaten Bush, who had low approval ratings and was facing increasing voter unhappiness over the war in Iraq.

The current Republican field faces the same barrier in taking on Obama. The president is surely vulnerable, and the election—at least at this point—is shaping up as another close contest. But the eventual nominee is going to have to come up with a stronger argument than "Obama has failed, and I'm not him."

[politicasista]

10. Yep. Everybody hated Kerry, but loves Obama

If people didn't like him, why did the Boss and others show up? The media told us that the crowds were ABB.

Interesting, the media lies about Kerry, Gore it must be true! But the meida lies about Obama, we know it's a lie for what it is.



Interesting.

[Drunken Irishman]

12. You're quick to go back to that...

But sometimes campaigns can screw up. I know it's hard to admit, but it does happen. I've gone into this before with you and it's true. Kerry didn't run a flawless campaign. I'm sure even Kerry will admit he made some crucial mistakes that probably hurt him, and maybe even cost him the election.

There is a reason Obama is in the White House today and Kerry couldn't upend Bush and it isn't just solely the media's fault. They helped, of course, and I certainly believe they were harder on Kerry & Gore than they were Obama - but Kerry also hurt his cause by picking John Edwards, who was an awful campaigner and even a worse attack dog (the role of the VP candidate, really). That's on John. He didn't have to pick Edwards. In fact, as much as we laughed off the New York Post story that Kerry had picked Gephardt, that would've been an infinitely better choice and probably could have delivered him a win.

But Kerry was not this perfect candidate. Just like Gore wasn't. Of course, that doesn't mean I think Kerry ran a bad campaign - it just wasn't very good. In fact, I've said before, I think Kerry ran a better campaign than Gore.

Still, there were problems with both Gore and Kerry's campaign. The biggest, probably, was deciding to focus on a very narrow path to 270 (both seemed content at the Ohio/Florida option, which blew up in both's faces).

So, I don't think it's a demeaning or attacking Kerry when you say Obama ran a better campaign in '08 than either Gore or Kerry. The fact he won probably proves it - and I'm sure Mr. Kerry would concede as much.

[Alexander]

13. +1

[politicasista]

14. Ok, you make sense

Thin-skinnned since 2004. Can't help it sometimes.

Will conceede that Kerry made a mistake in picking Edwards and wasn't the perfect candidate and didn't have a perfect campaign. Who didn't? Same with Gore and will conclude that Obama had a easier path and 270 because of who he was/is and the political environment. (People were fed up with the GOP).

We are staunch supporters of our President (he gets bashed here, but I have never said anything bad about him), it just seems like we help the GOP and hurt Obama when we throw people like Kerry and Gore under the bus, especially when we keep saying that Kerry was just ABB. Yet, not one person can answer if/why the large crowds (Obama did get larger ones) were so ABB 04, what motivated them to show up for someone who the media kept saying was _____?

I don't disagree with what you have said (you are pretty fair). Maybe I am seeing things differently.

[Drunken Irishman]

15. I think a lot of people just don't want a repeat of '04...

So, they look to that election as a 'what not to do'. Is it fair? No. Kerry ran an okay campaign all things considered. However, it was, whether we want to admit it or not, an election we lost that we very well could have won. When people bring it up, it's not to slam Kerry (well, some do that and that's disappointing considering Kerry was an early Obama backer), but to point to what not to do.

Bottom line, let's win this one for Kerry & Gore. And let's win it in a landslide for Mondale and Carter, who got their butts kicked in their elections.

[politicasista]

17. IMO,

it wasn't a cakewalk like people think. There were a lot of things working against Dems that year.

Interesting. People like the Boss, vets and those in the DU Kerry group get or got Senator Kerry. Why so-called Dems, Liberals refuse to even get Kerry speakes volumes. Saying that he doesn't speak without a heart and comes across as fake as Romney are RW memes. People that support the President wouldn't want them repeated about Obama, but they don't mind repeating them when it comes to Kerry and Gore. Not calling anyone out, but making an observation.

That's what I don't understand.

[great white snark]

19. " Thin-skinnned since 2004. Can't help it sometimes."

Me too and I'm vehemently unapologetic about it. I think the media played a huge role in his demise when they lapped up all of the GOP's talking points. The Bush campaign characterized Senator Kerry as some Socialist Massachusetts out of touch with middle America elitist liberal and the MSM happily parroted those claims in fear of not crossing our dear leader during a time of war.

I still have his back and would have been proud to call Kerry my President and Commander in Chief.

[politicasista]

21. Thanks for understanding

Excellent post.

[Drunken Irishman]

9. Kerry wasn't president...

Perception about him was still being formed. Americans know Obama at this point. They're not going to suddenly decide he's bad or not their guy because a barrage of negative ads. Kerry's problem was the same problem that faces every non-incumbent president heading into a campaign - most Americans just don't know 'em.

Sure, Americans had heard of Kerry by the election, but did they really know John Kerry? No. Not at the level they knew Bush. They were still being introduced to Kerry by the time the Swiftboating started and it helped alter that perception.

A similar thing happened with Dukakis in '88. He wasn't terribly known, at least extensively, by the American electorate. Then the Bush defined him as a tax-and-spent NE liberal who was soft on crime. The Willy Horton ad really was the final straw for that campaign and Dukakis could never shake that imagine.

Obama has been defined. He was defined in the '08 election. Romney is still being defined. Even though he's someone most people know of, they don't know much about him - and now they're getting an image of an elitist who seems to have disdain for the poor.

[DCBob]

5. Totally agree. Romney is a very weak candidate.

He boring, predictable, uninspiring, fake, inconsistent and a gaffe machine. What more could you ask for in a political opponent?

[politicasista]

8. He is, but that won't stop people from comparing (slamming)

people like Senator Kerry just to praise Obama and link with Mitt.

[Laura PourMeADrink]

20. Don't get this graph. Are those bars different polls? Or different time periods? Looking at Georg

Bush, he's got 4 yellow bars, he ran twice, huh?

[Grateful for Hope]

23. K&R!

[loucseki]

24. Romney is really Bizarro Superman....real meme potential...Spread around!

[link:|