2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumHe won't win one state, he'll only win VT, he'll only win VT and NH....
He won't win any state but VT on Super Tuesday. He'll drop out March 2. Greater than 99% probability he'll lose Michigan.
He will only win open primaries (other than the closed primaries he has already won).
He won't be able to raise the funds to be competitive.
Well here we are.
Attorney in Texas
(3,373 posts)Betty Karlson
(7,231 posts)So if you are standing anywhere near that distinction, watch out for moving goalposts.
George II
(67,782 posts)Each candidate needs 2242 delegates to get the nomination. That has been the goal/finish line since last year.
As of this morning Clinton only needs 38% of the remaining delegates, Sanders needs 62% of the remaining delegates.
Interesting that as each round of primaries passes, the lead increases.
Attorney in Texas
(3,373 posts)George II
(67,782 posts)Attorney in Texas
(3,373 posts)George II
(67,782 posts)Lizzie Poppet
(10,164 posts)If Bernie catches and passes Hillary (by any margin), and they fail to do that this year, mark your calendar. It'll represent the death of the Democratic Party, for all that the death throes will be long and painful.
Attorney in Texas
(3,373 posts)pending investigation, no disclosed emails which contradict her public statements, no responsibility for the dangers arising in Syria and Libya, none of the flip flops that she's made in the past year, etc.
d_legendary1
(2,586 posts)Especially since the Sanders movement is mirroring 2008. Eventually you'll have to realize you're in a Berning house.
George II
(67,782 posts)....in several ways.
John Poet
(2,510 posts)Her neo-conservative foreign policy was much less obvious, and she didn't have 150 FBI agents going through her email...
cui bono
(19,926 posts)The Traveler
(5,632 posts)Unlike Obama, Sanders offers a fundamental break from the near catastrophic failures produced by the neo-liberal economic paradigm. He offers rationality on subjects ranging from environmental protection to actually ending this damn drug war. I could go on and on ... but I won't. But, you're right. He is no Obama. His vision and philosophy are far more clear, and better defined.
I remember the horrible shape this country was in when Obama was inaugurated. Scary times. Obama turned out to not be a transformational President we hoped for ... but thank gawd he won that election. This country was in serious need of basic repairs, and it turns out Mr. Obama is a master craftsman who was able to make a lot of progress despite being saddled with a completely incompetent, bat shit crazy, race baiting legislative branch. But that work has been accomplished. The country now needs a new initiative, a new course. And Mr. Sanders has defined one.
Trav
greymouse
(872 posts)Sanders wins the real delegates (and the states coming up mostly favor him) and the supers throw the nomination to Hillary, it will be President Trump.
George II
(67,782 posts)Utah? Wyoming? The Dakotas? Idaho?
Attorney in Texas
(3,373 posts)BeanMusical
(4,389 posts)tazkcmo
(7,306 posts)It's Her turn. 'Nuff said.
newfie11
(8,159 posts)The Internet has been my news source!
morningfog
(18,115 posts)Red Oak
(697 posts)I knew there was corporate consolidation of media and had been told they are pushing their world view and not reporting news, but recently it has been so obvious the fix was in. Bernie had to announce his Maine win himself.
All I can say is F-them. I've lost trust in the NYT and WaPo to mention two. And MSNBC? - what a joke. They feed the corporate swill of the day with slightly altered seasoning.
Where are we headed? I most enjoyed the joke headline I read here on DU:
"Sanders finishes next to last in Michigan, Hillary comes in second!"
pengu
(462 posts)From the media to many our party's elected, the masks are off now.
AlbertCat
(17,505 posts)This is the most upsetting.
Like this primary process (which we skipped the last time) is just some pain in the ass ritual they must endure, like when the Lord and Lady HAVE to give a picnic for their mill workers or something. A tedious social obligation.
No wonder young people are turned off by it.
turbinetree
(24,745 posts)to divide and conqueror by using race-----------------it was every where on the MSM
The MSM is just salivating for a Clinton and the clown show bigot fascist to win the primaries----------------it's the money baby, those campaign dollars from the super-pacs feeding the self righteous spin
Do they ever have EGG on there Face now, and all of the pundits that were saying something else, blatantly using the race card-------------------------amazing--------------North against South, white against black, brown, vice- a - versa
Its about economics the little item that is turning this country into a third rate state------------and there just helping it along
They pit one culture against another to achieve there end result
Honk-------------------for a political revolution Bernie
George II
(67,782 posts)....misrepresent what happened last night.
Even while they showed a graphic showing that Clinton had 65% of the black vote, he was saying "they split the black vote"!
morningfog
(18,115 posts)And they did split the black vote.
George II
(67,782 posts)morningfog
(18,115 posts)bvar22
(39,909 posts)reported ONLY Hillary's BIG LIE about Bernie not voting for the Auto Bailout,
and showed ONLY Hillary making the statement from the debate.
No fact check.
No mention of Bernie's response.
Raster
(20,998 posts)1. The entire DNC elites and national infrastructure COMPLETELY IN-THE-BAG for Clinton. Wasserman-Schit's Chair of the DNC is analogous to Katherine Harris as Secretary of State in Florida AND Florida Co-Chair to select Cheney*/Bush*, and running the campaign from her Tallahassee state offices.
2. The M$M in the bag for Clinton. Coverage, or lack of it, has been abysmal, and if anything was mentioned about Sanders or his candidacy, was done so in the most negative of light with the most condescending and dismissive of airs.
Betty Karlson
(7,231 posts)So my confidence, for now, stands unabashed and well-confirmed. It's a daunting one, but we can accomplish the task.
turbinetree
(24,745 posts)we will not roll over and play dead-----------------we want this presidency------------------there is a reason we want this presidency its called economic equality and fairness---------------the re-opening of these / those "trade deals' that is driving this country down into the ground----------------------enough is enough------------------all of the "other" candidates will not re-open those "deals".
Those deals that are causing riots in the inner city, poisoning of water, outsourcing of jobs, poverty, income inequality, etc,......you name it it goes back to those "trade deals" every time................right at that proverbial feet-----every time
Honk-----------------for a political revolution Bernie 2016
George II
(67,782 posts)Raster
(20,998 posts)George II
(67,782 posts)...and Sanders 40% of the vote. And that does not include three caucus states that don't issue vote counts.
Clinton won two out of three of those.
The demographics of the states ahead get better for Bernie - particularly after the 15th of March - with 43% of the delegates up for grabs after March 15th.
And Bernie may be only one piece of paper away from clinching this ... that piece of paper that some folks don't want to think about is called an indictment. Laws have been broken and I doubt they can sweep it all under the carpet as if nothing happened. The GOP certainly won't let them and a bunch of the media won't either.
Bernie is a long way from being out of the woods and Hillary remains a solid favorite but as much as the Clinton campaign and some media would like to believe it's over on the 15th, that is about as reliable as Nate Silver's >99% call on Michigan.
This is not over.
Ed Suspicious
(8,879 posts)Jarqui
(10,131 posts)They do not want money out of politics because that's how they control politics and profit from politics.
When the media harps on the same BS over and over, like propaganda, and do not balance it with opposing views (arguably in this case better grounded in substance and fact), people start to believe it
this primary is defently going till june.michigan is big deal and it makes ohio,illinois,and missouri more intresting.
Remember clinton only has 2 more southern states she can win-NC and florida.
Bernie got 30% of black vote in michigan and 49% of blacks under 40.Michigan shows in midwest blacks are more open to hearing
bernie than down south.
without accusations of voter fraud clinton can't win outside the south.
If in midwest bernie can perform with blacks like in michigan his white support and support of non-black minoritys can help him
win.
Jarqui
(10,131 posts)And he's still dominating the younger vote - whereas seniors seem to be softening for Bernie in MI.
I don't think there's a prayer he can prevail on March 15th because Florida is a major challenge with a higher black % and seniors %. And North Carolina is a high black %. Illinois will probably follow Obama's lead on Clinton so that's up hill. And he's scrapping for Ohio and Missouri (while down there about 18 pts). It's hard to imagine how she'll not gain 100+ delegates in her worst case. All he can do is try to minimize his losses. A lot of delegates are at stake ~ 700.
If he can keep it fairly close, then he's got a shot because the demographics change. And the other shoe is going to fall on the email stuff and for that alone, I'd never surrender if I were in his boots. She can't whine about that because that is exactly what she did to Obama hoping garbage would appear to scuttle his candidacy when she had little chance.
Raster
(20,998 posts)...they are pushing. Goebbels Rule One: Repeat the lie over and over and over. Even if questioned, shrug it off and repeat the lie. Sooner or later something sticks. Do not deviate from the message. Repeat the lie!
SheilaT
(23,156 posts)But only if you pay zero attention to the national polling is she electable. And only if you absolutely don't factor in her astonishingly high negatives. Likewise only if you think that a Clinton Dynasty is a good thing.
AlbertCat
(17,505 posts)They haven't seen outside the bubble in decades?
Plus a bunch of feel good nonsense that makes little to no difference: like it's her turn and she's a woman... and was appointed SoS (because Obama felt obliged to do SOMETHING with her after she lost the last primary)
Octafish
(55,745 posts)Soon that will be obvious even to the talking toadies and paid pollsters.
Raster
(20,998 posts)...the spin coming from the pollsters is downright comical.
Zorra
(27,670 posts)H2O Man
(73,715 posts)Helen Borg
(3,963 posts)randome
(34,845 posts)[hr][font color="blue"][center]A 90% chance of rain means the same as a 10% chance:
It might rain and it might not.[/center][/font][hr]
morningfog
(18,115 posts)stillwaiting
(3,795 posts)Thankfully, they have failed.
Hopefully they ultimately fail as Bernie's political revolution continues to gain momentum.
The Democratic Party desperately needs to be reformed, and Bernie is the only one who will do it.
Capt. Obvious
(9,002 posts)SheilaT
(23,156 posts)Too bad we can't pin that thread to the front page for a day or two.
Every single person who posted gave Bernie one or two states, except for someone who conceded Oregon, and most said he'd drop out by Super Tuesday and endorse Clinton.
I wish I could create a clip of the Wicked Witch of the West melting and post it here.
Art_from_Ark
(27,247 posts)morningfog
(18,115 posts)Art_from_Ark
(27,247 posts)Thus spake Nostradamus
bigwillq
(72,790 posts)arcane1
(38,613 posts)BeanMusical
(4,389 posts)I stopped counting a while ago but it's getting ridiculous.
bigwillq
(72,790 posts)I would not have posted it had I known since they are not able to post to defend themselves.
Hell Hath No Fury
(16,327 posts)of the day on my face with that link.
First they laugh....
SheilaT
(23,156 posts)solemnly assured he'd already plateaued? How many of us here were still patiently explaining that all the polling we were seeing at that point was almost pure name recognition? And how we were scorned for that?
At the moment we're still somewhat inside a name-recognition primary season, because it's extremely clear that as voters finally start paying attention to what each candidate actually says and has actually done in the past, more and more voters switch over to Bernie. At least this is true on the Democratic side.
For the Republicans, Trump has some of the best name recognition out there, and he's been exploiting it masterfully.
The other thing that Hillary (and all the Republican candidates save Trump) still don't understand is that the politics and campaign strategies of yesteryear no longer work. It's not possible to say one thing in one venue, something else in the next, and something yet different in another, and get away with it. A footnote here: at the moment Trump is getting away with saying anything he damn well pleases, behaving as if he's on his own reality show, which at the moment he is. Once we get to the actual campaign for the general election, he will finally be called to task on all of the bullshit he's been spouting.
Autumn
(45,120 posts)OnlinePoker
(5,730 posts)Result - Sanders 1.5%
I don't think they are picking up the youth voters who are overwhelmingly voting for Sanders.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/mi/michigan_democratic_presidential_primary-5224.html#polls
Mufaddal
(1,021 posts)kath
(10,565 posts)corbettkroehler
(1,898 posts)eggplant
(3,919 posts)PatrynXX
(5,668 posts)He just blew what seemed to be a quiet war thanks to the media right out in the open. Can you hear us now? Bit hard to ignore when the second head is bigger than the original.
ALBliberal
(2,362 posts)Just to confirm that she has gone to the dark side where journalistic standards of objectivity and fairness are not required.
Elmer S. E. Dump
(5,751 posts)closeupready
(29,503 posts)Bob Dylan did ...
Thankfully, Bernie DID NOT.
Docreed2003
(16,907 posts)I don't think he ever sold out. I think he did what he wanted to do and went musically where he wanted to go...but I'm a Dylan apologist!
closeupready
(29,503 posts)lots of hippies and counterculture types in the 70's were those who sold out their ideals to The Man - Hillary is a perfect example of today's "The Man", and Rachel really compromised her integrity to shill for Hill.
Docreed2003
(16,907 posts)AlbertCat
(17,505 posts)No... he just fell for that evangelical Christian malarky. Yuk!
No I don't have to "serve somebody"...and if I did it wouldn't a choice of the devil or the lord.
Meanwhile....
Sanders! go...go...go!
Docreed2003
(16,907 posts)I'm no fan of the "evangelical Dylan", although I think he's moved on from that based on more recent interviews, but let's be honest...we all serve somebody! Take this campaign...I feel like you're either serving the people or you're serving the oligarchy! You gotta serve somebody, at the end of the day.
greymouse
(872 posts)Talk to some of the people who know where the Mac interface really came from, and it wasn't Jobs. Also denying paternity of his daughter. It doesn't get much more evil than tossing a kid to the winds.
Jefferson23
(30,099 posts)any dent like this..after all he was not Warren. lol
He blew the cover off the roof of the DNC and the corruption within our
own party. No matter what happens next he changed a great deal for
the better of this country.
gordyfl
(598 posts)They even had me believing that - a little.
One of my favorites:
"Bernie will disappear by the time we get to Iowa".
deutsey
(20,166 posts)behind him pushing him on, rather one in front of him trying to push him back.
fuck the DNC.
Amimnoch
(4,558 posts)First, I want to extend a heartfelt congratulations to Sanders supporters for a very stunning upset in Michigan last night! You worked your asses off to make that happen. You turned out the vote. There is much for you to be proud of. Personally, I don't impress easily when it comes to primaries traditionally... last night was impressive.
On another note though, Super Tuesday 2.0 is coming up next week.
Florida
Illinois
Missouri
North Carolina
Ohio
Big numbers.
As your candidates prospects rise.. please.. Please.. PLEASE.. PLEASE! use your momentum to start getting the Senator some of the support he will NEED if he does win to make that ambitious agenda possible!
Ref:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1MZGzbSWESE8t18GGzrgc2FfL0b5tz-vmNf-F_-w5yN4/htmlview
In Florida:
*you have Alan Grayson running for Senate, a Sanders endorsement and aligned with Sanders policies. Highly recommend getting him on your radar with your turn out the vote for Bernie.
*you have Tim Canova in US house district 23. He's in a Primary against Doug Hughes. Get him some exposure and support from the Bernie Campaign.
*You have Juan Xuna in the 18th district. He's in the Primary against 2 other Democrats.
In Illinois:
*you have Marcus Lewis, running against 2 others in the Primary.
In Missouri:
* you have Cory Bush for the Senate. He needs your help in the Primary then STRONG help in the GE to knock out Roy Blunt the Republican incumbent.
North Carolina
* You have John McNeil, a progressive activist primarying against Ron Sanyal for house district 13. This one has SOO many wins for you as Ron is a Pharmaceutical executive, AND if you can get him in you have a chance of knocking out George Holding from the incumbency side. -1 R in the house +1 D in the House!!
In Ohio:
* you have Janet Garett.. teacher and ex teachers union local president.. She's being primaried with 2 other Democrat candidates in the 4th district. this is another one that CAN be a -1 R in the house and another +1D.. IF you can get her through the primary AND knockout out Jim Jordan in the GE.
*you have Keith Mundy in House district 16. No primary for him, but support this man, he CAN beat Jim Renacci (R), and that can be another +/- 1 for us!
* You have Kelli Prather.. This one is a SENATE seat, AND a chance to knock out a Republican incumbent Rob Portman! A HUGE +1/-1 in that most critical chamber of Congress!!!
By now, you are probably asking yourselves "WHY the hell is a Hillary supporter going through this trouble??"
Because it is a win/win as far as I'm concerned! That's why.
If Hillary does win, showing this kind of momentum with getting progressives in Congress, plus the escalated and unanticipated challenge from Bernie himself will go a long way to keeping her on track to push progressive causes, and prevent her from becoming a 1 term president.
If this momentum for Bernie keeps up and keeps growing, and he does manage to pull off an upset and take the Democratic Party primary, then he will NEED these and so much more to make his agenda enter the realm of feasibility (It DOES still take a congress people!) It will also help ensure he gets the endorsements in his 2nd term run.
So for me, there is no downside in pushing this list!
Really Sanders people... you have GOT to start getting the people that have to make it with Bernie if you don't want him, if he does get the primary, to be a toothless tiger of a president.. give him the teeth (Senate), and claws (House of Representatives) he will need. You like to compare this election cycle to 08'? Well, let's make sure he (or Hillary) have a congress that keeps those causes on track!!!
Betty Karlson
(7,231 posts)Maybe we should heed your advice.
But what is with district 23? Is Debbie quitting while she deems herself ahead? And if so: WHY is she still the chair?
Amimnoch
(4,558 posts)Tim is one of Sanders endorsements, and all told the more liberal/progressive figure in the race than Debbie.
That's why I put him on there for Sanders supporters.
I've donated $16 to his campaign at https://timcanova.com/
Betty Karlson
(7,231 posts)quote: you have Tim Canova in US house district 23. He's in a Primary against Doug Hughes. Get him some exposure and support from the Bernie Campaign.
Amimnoch
(4,558 posts)the full list is here:
http://www.uselections.com/fl/fl.htm
I'd missed Debbie as the incumbent header in that race. This list took a lot of sifting, searching, and looking. It may not even be the last one that I missed the real headliner. Some of these candidates might have more information than I have if others notice it, feel free to add.
Betty Karlson
(7,231 posts)I think a lot of the establishment would like us to do just that. Not a chance.
You, however, are freely and fully forgiven. Thanks for the list. I mean it.
Docreed2003
(16,907 posts)Thanks for a level headed, policy driven take...such a breath of fresh air!
Kall
(615 posts)Scootaloo
(25,699 posts)LibDemAlways
(15,139 posts)friend of a friend-- who used to post at least ten times a day, "Bernie Sanders will never win a single primary or caucus." He was a Hillary diehard, and even though he claimed to agree with Bernie on most issues, he was one of those "Get with the program" types that we see all the time here.
I finally couldn't take it any more. I have no interest in revisiting him, but I get great satisfaction in knowing he was full of shit and has had to eat large servings of crow.
artyteacher
(598 posts)Who I like and would votes for....
But he's still losing.
earthside
(6,960 posts)... even if all the momentum and enthusiasm is with Sanders ...
Well, it will make the split and civil war in the Repuglican Party look like a grade school scuffle.
Politics is more than about numbers, especially at the presidential level.
Perhaps Clinton can figure out a way to get the absolute number of delegates to get the nomination.
But if that happens in defiance of the grassroots desires and hopes of regular Democratic and regular unaffiliated voters, then it is a prescription for electoral disaster.
The cynicism of the Clintons towards this process is dangerous to the Democratic Party.
HassleCat
(6,409 posts)He can only win one state!
Vermont! He'll only win Vermont and New Hampshire.
Two... Two states. He'll only win two states.
(and so on)
winterwar
(210 posts)I don't think I could stomach one more day of people who don't know a thing about Michigan running their mouths on DU. Trying to tell me people here don't care about NAFTA. I think the pathetic attempt to paint Bernie as anti-autoworker backfired perfectly. They were all talking about it in my wife's auto plant. Did she think autoworkers are that stupid? In MI we been taking about NAFTA every day since Slick (can't control my) Willy sold us out with that shit. I love the internet age, it isn't hard to see who your friends were when it counted. Bernie had Michigan worker's back when it counted. In the 80's & 90's. He has been our ally all along. Before he was asking for our votes. Back when standing with unions meant you were aligning with "thugs".
Ken Burch
(50,254 posts)beam me up scottie
(57,349 posts)WillyT
(72,631 posts)SoapBox
(18,791 posts)Go Bernie!
Go Berners!
myrna minx
(22,772 posts)Dont call me Shirley
(10,998 posts)Keep Calm And Bernie On!
rpannier
(24,353 posts)Just want to help with the useless meme out there
Especially since he's likely to win almost all those states (AZ, NV, UT, ID, WA, OR, CA, HA, AK)
Ed Suspicious
(8,879 posts)Cobalt Violet
(9,905 posts)We have been invisible to them for decades. Now due their policies we outnumber them.