Nate Silver at 538 Gives Obama a teeny bump - Chance of Winning for Obama 63.1%

[courseofhistory]

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/10/12/oct-12-romney-debate-gains-show-staying-power/

Percentage of National Vote 50% Obama 49% Romney

[mzmolly]

1. I'll

take it.

[BootinUp]

2. The probablility of winning the election

is about the same as for the state of Ohio.

[GreenPartyVoter]

3. I've used up all my free visits. Can you quote a few of the more interesting tidbits, please?

[courseofhistory]

5. Free visits?

I go there all the time--maybe I registered a long time ago and don't remember but....no commentary yet but the numbers went up about .1%. Nothing major but at least it isn't down. The graph shows both candidates leveling off instead of downard for Obama and upward for Romney. The national vote percentage is now 50% Obama 49% Romney whereas yesterday it was Romney leading by .9%

[GreenPartyVoter]

10. Yeah, after I go something like ten times it wants me to become a paying subscriber.

[ProudToBeBlueInRhody]

13. Just copy and past the title of the post every time you go there....

Then go to Google, and enter it....you should be able to enter and read it that way.

[GreenPartyVoter]

19. I will try that tomorrow, thanks! :^D

[lucabrasi]

6. Nothing yet

The numbers were updated, but no post.

[TroyD]

11. Nate's post above from October 12 says Romney's debate bump had staying power

That's why it became a game changer.

[TroyD]

4. Could you please post the Chance of Winning number in the title?

[BootinUp]

7. 63.1

[regnaD kciN]

9. That's up 0.2% since yesterday...

[TroyD]

18. No change then

At least not in mathematically meaningfully terms.

But better than going down!

[ProudToBeBlueInRhody]

12. The clock is ticking bump

Every day, if the polls remain the same, is time Rmoney is losing.

[Adenoid_Hynkel]

14. This doesn't include today's Reuters poll

showing the president ahead

tomorrow's update should be more interesting

[courseofhistory]

15. Another Interesting prediction and combinations of States to win electoral college for O & R

http://www.democraticunderground.com/1251142796

[tarheelsunc]

16. If you look at the individual state breakdowns

he STILL gives that Gravis garbage full weighting!

[TroyD]

17. Is today's Gravis poll for COLORADO included in Nate's model?

The one showing Obama +2?

[BootinUp]

21. last poll shown is from 10/11, Obama +2.4

don't know when it was first published.

[TroyD]

22. Is that poll in Nate's model?

Then yes, he included today's Gravis poll that has its own thread here.

Last week's Gravis poll had Romney ahead in CO.

Today's Gravis poll has Obama ahead in CO.

That should help Obama in Nate's model.

[BootinUp]

24. Didn't help too much. Colorado just went light pink

50.5% chance of Romney win. Polling average Obama +1.3, Adjusted Polling average Romney +0.8.

[tarheelsunc]

23. It is there, yes, now Colorado is at 50%/50%

Just because Obama is leading in the poll doesn't make it any more valid though.

[DonViejo]

28. He's not the only one tarheelsunc...

Dr Sam Wang over at Princeton responds to a reader's question over at the site:

Sam Wang // Oct 14, 2012 at 4:59 pm

I actually think they’re on the level. They could get their results by bad weighting.

http://election.princeton.edu/2012/10/14/jerseyvotes/#comment-16348

[MFM008]

20. UP

is not DOWN more, so any up is good!

[Doctor Jack]

25. Two days of movement in Obama's direction?

It aint much but hot damn, after last week, I'll take it!

[TroyD]

26. Nate's Current Projections

Colorado

Chance of winning O (50%) R (50%)

-

Florida

Chance of winning O (33%) R (67%)

-

Iowa

Chance of winning O (58%) R (42%)

-

North Carolina

Chance of winning O (13%) R (87%)

-

New Hampshire

Chance of winning O (68%) R (32%)

-

Nevada

Chance of winning O (61%) R (39%)

-

Ohio

Chance of winning O (67%) R (33%)

-

Virginia

Chance of winning O (48%) R (52%)

-

Wisconsin

Chance of winning O (77%) R (23%)

-

Maine CD-2 District 2

Chance of winning O (86%) R (14%)


-------


http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/

[elleng]

27. This BEFORE next debates!

[underpants]

29. Actually that is up 6% since Friday

The O Man was at 57% at the end of the work week.

[still_one]

30. we are going to win, and America will be saved