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Sat Oct 13, 2012, 06:40 PM

Nate Silver: G.O.P. Senate Hopes Fade

As Nate Silver says, the Democrats went from being likely to lose the Senate only a few months ago, to having an 83.6% chance of winning it in the latest Senate update.

Races that were tough (eg. MA) and races that seemed lost (eg. WI) only months ago, are now leaning Dem.

-----

Here are some of the the current projections:

MA (Elizabeth Warren) Chance of winning : 79%

MO (Claire McCaskill) Chance of winning: 79%

VA (Tim Kaine) Chance of winning: 77%

CT: (Chris Murphy) Chance of winning: 72%

WI: (Tammy Baldwin) Chance of winning: 82%

-----

More examples at the link:

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/10/13/g-o-p-senate-hopes-fade-even-as-romneys-rise-polls-show/

57 replies, 8033 views

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Reply Nate Silver: G.O.P. Senate Hopes Fade (Original post)
TroyD Oct 2012 OP
NMDemDist2 Oct 2012 #1
TroyD Oct 2012 #2
Aristus Oct 2012 #6
Wounded Bear Oct 2012 #30
catbyte Oct 2012 #17
lunatica Oct 2012 #20
WCGreen Oct 2012 #21
TroyD Oct 2012 #34
flamingdem Oct 2012 #3
JackN415 Oct 2012 #4
Wounded Bear Oct 2012 #31
LineReply .
hrmjustin Oct 2012 #5
gkhouston Oct 2012 #7
Dawson Leery Oct 2012 #16
TroyD Oct 2012 #8
Cha Oct 2012 #9
regnaD kciN Oct 2012 #10
TroyD Oct 2012 #11
SheilaT Oct 2012 #12
TroyD Oct 2012 #13
WillyT Oct 2012 #14
TroyD Oct 2012 #15
catbyte Oct 2012 #47
TroyD Oct 2012 #48
no_hypocrisy Oct 2012 #18
TroyD Oct 2012 #19
mucifer Oct 2012 #22
Iliyah Oct 2012 #23
Overseas Oct 2012 #24
mountain grammy Oct 2012 #25
MassedPole Oct 2012 #26
underpants Oct 2012 #27
ffr Oct 2012 #28
Moostache Oct 2012 #29
Wounded Bear Oct 2012 #32
budkin Oct 2012 #33
Savanna Anna Oct 2012 #35
TroyD Oct 2012 #38
desertduck Oct 2012 #40
Savanna Anna Oct 2012 #54
Moosepoop Oct 2012 #39
Savanna Anna Oct 2012 #55
calimary Oct 2012 #42
Savanna Anna Oct 2012 #57
Auntie Bush Oct 2012 #36
TroyD Oct 2012 #37
Cosmocat Oct 2012 #41
TroyD Oct 2012 #44
Cosmocat Oct 2012 #52
Left Coast2020 Oct 2012 #43
DFW Oct 2012 #45
TroyD Oct 2012 #46
DFW Oct 2012 #50
TroyD Oct 2012 #49
DFW Oct 2012 #51
Coyotl Oct 2012 #53
Lucy Fer Oct 2012 #56

Response to TroyD (Original post)

Sat Oct 13, 2012, 06:42 PM

1. sweet! and Heinrich is leading by double digits in NM too

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Response to NMDemDist2 (Reply #1)

Sat Oct 13, 2012, 06:56 PM

2. Yes, Heinrich is one of the Democrats who is basically guaranteed to win

Heinrich and several others are what we could class as the "90%+" Club:

NM: (Heinrich) Chance of winning: 94%

OH: (Sherrod Brown) Chance of winning: 92%

ME: (King (I) ) Chance of winning: 89%

PA: (Casey) Chance of winning: 94%

WV: (Manchin) Chance of winning: 94%

NJ: (Menendez) Chance of winning: 97%

HI: (Hirono) Chance of winning: 99%

MY: (Cardin) Chance of winning: 99%

MI: (Debbie Stabenow) Chance of winning: 99%

VT: (Sanders (I) ) Chance of winning: 99%

RI: (Whitehouse) Chance of winning: 99%

MN: (Klobuchar) Chance of winning: 100%

CA: (Dianne Feinstein) Chance of winning: 100%

DE: (Carper) Chance of winning: 100%

WA: (Cantwell) Chance of winning: 100%

NY: (Gillibrand) Chance of winning : 100%

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Response to TroyD (Reply #2)

Sat Oct 13, 2012, 07:09 PM

6. I can't even remember the name of the guy running against Senator Cantwell.

He must have a terrible ground game. I'm voting for our Senator!

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Response to Aristus (Reply #6)

Sun Oct 14, 2012, 12:21 PM

30. Me, too....



My Maria!

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Response to TroyD (Reply #2)

Sat Oct 13, 2012, 08:24 PM

17. Stabenow = 99% SWEET!

Makes sense, though. I live in The DeVos Kingdom, GR, and have seen ONE yard sign for Hoekstra.

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Response to TroyD (Reply #2)

Sat Oct 13, 2012, 08:37 PM

20. Yeah, I voted absentee for Diane Feinstein today

Yuk! I despise her, and if a Democrat had run against her I would have voted for him/her. As it is a Republican ran against her so I had to vote for her to keep the Senate. Fuck! That woman has the fucking luck of GWB!

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Response to TroyD (Reply #2)

Sat Oct 13, 2012, 09:01 PM

21. Josh Mandel was probably the worst candidate for the GOP to run against

Sherrod Brown.

Another silver spoon candidate fielded by the GOP.

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Response to WCGreen (Reply #21)

Sun Oct 14, 2012, 04:15 PM

34. 'Josh Mandel was probably the worst candidate for the GOP to run'

He is such a snotty little thing. The OHIO newspapers have really gotten fed up with him lately and some of them have really ripped him apart and many have endorsed Brown.

I don't know if it's been posted here yet, but he got into a fight with the editorial board of one of the newspapers last week, as well as a radio interviewer who ended up hanging up on him!

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Response to TroyD (Original post)

Sat Oct 13, 2012, 07:02 PM

3. Yay, Murphy back in the lead

Elizabeth wow!

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Response to TroyD (Original post)

Sat Oct 13, 2012, 07:03 PM

4. This and the house (although less likely to get 25)... very crucial.

 

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Response to JackN415 (Reply #4)

Sun Oct 14, 2012, 12:24 PM

31. Would love to flip the house...

as I'm sure most would around here.

http://www.delbeneforcongress.com/



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Response to TroyD (Original post)

Sat Oct 13, 2012, 07:05 PM

5. .

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Response to TroyD (Original post)

Sat Oct 13, 2012, 07:15 PM

7. Chris Murphy at 72% Woot!

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Response to gkhouston (Reply #7)

Sat Oct 13, 2012, 08:21 PM

16. We are canvassing tomorrow for him.

What is helping him is that Republican women do NOT like Linda McSteroids, her business, or her husband's history of giving steroids to the WWE performers. If the numbers hold and 1 out of 4 Republicans cross over for Murphy on November 6th, Linda McMahon would have wasted some $70 million of her money for nothing.

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Response to TroyD (Original post)

Sat Oct 13, 2012, 07:19 PM

8. Indiana

Forgot to post this one above:

(Joe Donnelly): Chance of winning: 51%

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/

Bill Clinton was just there a few days ago. That could give him another boost.

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Response to TroyD (Original post)

Sat Oct 13, 2012, 07:20 PM

9. May This Come Through at The Voting Booths!



Chris Murphy!

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Response to TroyD (Original post)

Sat Oct 13, 2012, 07:23 PM

10. I hate to be cynical...

...but Obama's re-elect odds were better than that on 538 just ten days ago.

I'm sure another set of polls from WeAskAmericARGravismussen could turn around those odds in a hurry.

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Response to regnaD kciN (Reply #10)

Sat Oct 13, 2012, 07:28 PM

11. Yes, but these have been holding steady for a while now, and . . .

It's unlikely we'll have another setback like the debate which has national repercussions for all the Senate races.

In fact, Nate Silver pointed out that the fact that the chances of the Democrats winning the Senate did not go down over the past week is a bad sign for the GOP.

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Response to TroyD (Original post)

Sat Oct 13, 2012, 07:37 PM

12. Am I right that only the WI and MA races would

change an R Senator to a D one?

How many would that give us in the Senate?

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Response to SheilaT (Reply #12)

Sat Oct 13, 2012, 07:38 PM

13. MA would change from R to D

But not WI. We currently hold that seat already. It is opening up because Sen. Herb Kohl is retiring.

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Response to TroyD (Original post)

Sat Oct 13, 2012, 08:06 PM

14. HUGE K & R !!!


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Response to TroyD (Original post)

Sat Oct 13, 2012, 08:14 PM

15. Nate Silver still has ARIZONA & NEVADA as out of reach, but . . .

He may be underestimating support for Carmona in AZ (I don't think he's included today's +4 Carmona poll), and may be underestimating the Democratic advantage in NV that Shelley could end up with on election day.

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Response to TroyD (Reply #15)

Mon Oct 15, 2012, 08:34 AM

47. Let's hope Nate's wrong about Crmona like he was wrong about Angle back in 2010

Didn't he have her at over 70% chance at winning, but severely underestimated the Hispanic vote for Reid?

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Response to catbyte (Reply #47)

Mon Oct 15, 2012, 08:47 AM

48. I can't remember exactly what Nate predicted, but you may be right

There were definitely several analysts predicting that Angle would win, and Nate may have been one of them.

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Response to TroyD (Original post)

Sat Oct 13, 2012, 08:32 PM

18. Will there be 60 dems in the Senate after the election?

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Response to no_hypocrisy (Reply #18)

Sat Oct 13, 2012, 08:33 PM

19. No, unfortunately

Current projections are for about 52-54 Dems.

60 seats is not realistic at this point in time.

But the good news is that there will be a Democratic Majority in the Senate. That was up in the air a few months ago.

So this is still huge news.

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Response to TroyD (Reply #19)

Sat Oct 13, 2012, 09:04 PM

22. and 54 would protect us a little more than 51

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Response to TroyD (Original post)

Sat Oct 13, 2012, 09:05 PM

23. I was wondering if Pres O was going down like

the lean right polls were portraying then why wasn't the Dems in the Senate races going down as well. If Mittens was surging like the corporate media was saying why wasn't he bringing up th rear for the GOPpers? We we know why now don't we.

Still, vote, vote, vote and get your family and friends out to vote!

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Response to TroyD (Original post)

Sat Oct 13, 2012, 09:27 PM

24. K&R. Yaaaaaay!

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Response to TroyD (Original post)

Sat Oct 13, 2012, 09:49 PM

25. Encouraging.. will be glad when it's over

we need to flip the House and the Statehouses too!

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Response to TroyD (Original post)

Sat Oct 13, 2012, 09:53 PM

26. Yea yeaa Tammy Baldwin has best % of winning.

 

Hope she kicks Tommy Thompsons Tail. Id be voting for her.

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Response to TroyD (Original post)

Sun Oct 14, 2012, 08:22 AM

27. VA- Allen has little money but he is going to flood the airwaves the last 3 weeks

that's okay we are CRUSHING them in canvassing. I knocked on 100 doors yesterday and definitely got 2 people to commit to Kaine.

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Response to TroyD (Original post)

Sun Oct 14, 2012, 10:43 AM

28. I'm no hair (tortoise and the hair)

And I'm not going to sleep until I have everyone I know recorded as voting.

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Response to TroyD (Original post)

Sun Oct 14, 2012, 12:19 PM

29. 51....54...56....60.....none of these numbers is the MOST important thing...

That MOST important thing is that Harry Reid follow through on his words put in place new rules for the next Senate before the endless stream of filibusters can start again...

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Response to Moostache (Reply #29)

Sun Oct 14, 2012, 12:27 PM

32. Truer words were never spoken....

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Response to TroyD (Original post)

Sun Oct 14, 2012, 01:02 PM

33. Filibuster proof?

I guess it doesn't matter if we have a GOP house

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Response to TroyD (Original post)

Sun Oct 14, 2012, 04:54 PM

35. Arizona



New AZ poll: Dead heat in presidential race; Latino vote key
Posted: Oct 14, 2012 12:21 AM PDT Updated: Oct 14, 2012 7:48 AM PDT
By Heather Moore - bio | email

CBS 5 CBS 5
PHOENIX (CBS5) -

In the race for the White House, a new poll shows Pres. Barack Obama and Mitt Romney are in a dead heat in Arizona.

The Rocky Mountain Poll released Saturday shows it's also neck and neck for the U.S. Senate, and for the first time in a long time, Arizona is looking more like a battleground state.



OK, I never thought I would see this. I live in Arizona and I am thrilled. Last night on the local news, I saw Hispanic voters putting up tables to get as many Hispanics registered as possible.

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Response to Savanna Anna (Reply #35)

Sun Oct 14, 2012, 06:07 PM

38. How many more days are there in AZ for registration?

Latino turnout will be key for Carmona to win the race.

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Response to TroyD (Reply #38)

Sun Oct 14, 2012, 07:16 PM

40. last day was on the 9th (of this month)

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Response to TroyD (Reply #38)

Mon Oct 15, 2012, 03:22 PM

54. Oct 9th

I was watching re runs of how hard Latinos worked to get minorities registered.


Elections 2012: Arizona is New Swing State; American Indians, Latinos Will Decide Outcome

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Response to Savanna Anna (Reply #35)

Sun Oct 14, 2012, 06:25 PM

39. Welcome to DU, Savanna Anna!!!

I think you'll like it here!

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Response to Moosepoop (Reply #39)

Mon Oct 15, 2012, 03:31 PM

55. Thank you Moosepoop!!!!

Thanks for recommending this forum to me. I know I will like it here.

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Response to Savanna Anna (Reply #35)

Sun Oct 14, 2012, 07:57 PM

42. Hey Savanna Anna, Welcome to DU!

Let's turn AZ blue!

Glad you're here! We need you to help us do exactly that! 'Cause this thing isn't nailed down yet.








Now get to work.

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Response to calimary (Reply #42)

Mon Oct 15, 2012, 03:35 PM

57. Thanks for the Welcome!!

Deep red to blue!!!

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Response to TroyD (Original post)

Sun Oct 14, 2012, 05:33 PM

36. Last I heard Brown was ahead of Warren...so that's great news.

I wish we could knock all the ReThugs block off.

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Response to Auntie Bush (Reply #36)

Sun Oct 14, 2012, 06:05 PM

37. Warren has been ahead of Brown for the past month

Warren overtook Brown after her appearance at the DNC convention. There have been a couple of polls giving Brown the edge, but the majority are in Warren's favor now. Both Nate Silver and Larry Sabato have the MA SEN seat leaning in her direction now.

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Response to TroyD (Original post)

Sun Oct 14, 2012, 07:36 PM

41. HUGE turnaround

I always was flumoxed how Warren was running behind Brown. That one HAD to flip.

Baldwin has been a big surprise, I think that was one the Rs had penned in their column.

MO got tea bagged.

I just hope Murphy can leg out that WWF dingbat, and hopefully put her down for good.

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Response to Cosmocat (Reply #41)

Mon Oct 15, 2012, 05:27 AM

44. 'Baldwin has been a big surprise'

Tommy Thompson has run one of the worst Senate campaigns of anyone in the country this year, with the exception of Todd Akin.

- > Taking large periods of time off during the campaign

-> Having trouble raising money

-> Forgetting how many houses he owns

-> Allowing his campaign manager to make anti-gay comments about Baldwin

-> And the latest today (about which there is a thread) his son saying voters should send Obama back to Kenya

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Response to TroyD (Reply #44)

Mon Oct 15, 2012, 02:29 PM

52. Yeah

Going in, it was just assumed he would walk away with it.

Again, I think the Rs had that one chalked up 6 months ago.

But, agree, he has been a big disappointment (from a general standpoint) and obviously is past his prime and living off his rep, while Baldwin has been pretty sharp.

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Response to TroyD (Original post)

Sun Oct 14, 2012, 11:26 PM

43. What is making me wonder is two things:

How big of a margin would we get if all above win in Senate? I always watch the Senate races because it has SC implications. Second, I was told that we may have trouble with HoR. A staffer with Bera race (to unseat Lungren in CD7) told me his info says batshit Bachman may get her seat back because of her district. It would be an absolute joy to get these teabaggers out and have some sane people in the House who will help the Prez with economic legislation. But I'm hoping we can get House too. We need it. Any clues?

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Response to TroyD (Original post)

Mon Oct 15, 2012, 07:11 AM

45. NV and ND are not impossible either

With some serious end-spurt groundwork in these states, we might even pull off a 2006 scenario, though that's probably hoping for too much.

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Response to DFW (Reply #45)

Mon Oct 15, 2012, 07:18 AM

46. NV is certainly possible

Because Berkley has been close in some of the recent polling, and the Democrats have the stronger ground game in the state.

But ND looks pretty tough, even though Heidi Heitkamp has been doing better than expected. Nate Silver's odds for her look pretty steep.

Good luck to both!

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Response to TroyD (Reply #46)

Mon Oct 15, 2012, 12:34 PM

50. Precisely BECAUSE Heitkamp has been doing better than expected

I hold out hope that the DSCC will toss her some last minute support. A decent performance by Obama in the last two debates wouldn't hurt, especially if Obama gets to discuss some farm-relief-related questions. Romney doesn't even know what a farm is except for Old McDonald having had one.

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Response to TroyD (Original post)

Mon Oct 15, 2012, 08:55 AM

49. Nate has updated them again:

Arizona

Chance of winning (D) 38% (R) 62%

--

Connecticut

Chance of winning (D) 74% (R) 26%

--

Florida

Chance of winning (D) 98% (R) 2%

--

Indiana

Chance of winning (D) 52% (R) 48%

---

Massachusetts

Chance of winning (D) 82% (R) 18%

---

Maine

Chance of winning (I )90% (R) 7%

---

Missouri

Chance of winning (D) 83% (R) 17%

--

North Dakota

Chance of winning (D)22% (R) 78%

--

Nevada

Chance of winning (D) 29% (R) 71%

--

Wisconsin

Chance of winning (D) 84% (R) 16%

--

More Senate projections:

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/

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Response to TroyD (Reply #49)

Mon Oct 15, 2012, 12:39 PM

51. I'm pleased to hear about Indiana, although 52% is no lock, and this is just one guy's take

But his highly pessimistic views on NV and ND are highly discouraging, especially considering the total nut cases running for the Republicans in both states. I can't imagine it looks that dim in both states, which gives me to wonder about the accuracy of the rest.

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Response to TroyD (Original post)

Mon Oct 15, 2012, 03:17 PM

53. North Dakota is closer to a toss-up right now.

Heidi has been making big gains for a while, so that trend may put her over the top in November.

http://heidifornorthdakota.com/

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Response to TroyD (Original post)

Mon Oct 15, 2012, 03:35 PM

56. Democratic Party will et the triple crown

 

President
Senate
House

In a few years the Republican Party will be reduced to competing with the Libertarian one, at this pace.

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