It's general knowledge that the Southern States would be almost all voting for Hillary. She

[Cal33]

did win big. In the coming two weeks there are 5 more Southern States: Kentucky, Louisiana,
Mississippi, North Carolina and Florida. Hillary will be winning big in the first three, but it might
be close in NC and FL.

From then on, I'd expect Bernie to be gradually catching up -- right into June! I don't know
about the others, but I still expect Bernie to be the winner.

MNSNBC and CNN never pointed out this fact, that the Southern States are the early voting
ones. And the results could influence the mood and even votes of people in the later-voting states.
Well, it's pretty clear that they are for the Establishment.

The reality is that the fight is continuing to go on strong - right into June!

[global1]

1. He Could And Will Win As Long As We Keep On Funding....

his effort. TPTB thought that Super Tuesday would be the knockout blow to take Bernie out of the race. The fact that Bernie has created a 'Political Revolution' by funding his efforts without a Super PAC and going right to The People is what will carry him to the WH.

Rachel has missed that point in that she equates Bernie's revolution only with turnout. The fact is that Bernie's revolution is how he is raising his campaign money from you and me.

Hillary is in trouble money wise taking this race all the way to the convention. She has maxed out her big donors and money is becoming a problem for her. That is why we're hearing now that she will be pandering to the NRA lobbyists and the Bankster's.

Don't be demoralized you Bernie supporters. We're in a better position than Hillary is right now. The MSM is going to try and tell us just the contrary. Don't believe them. Just keep those $27.00 donations flowing to Bernie and we will win this. Let's make Bernie's month of March donations beat the February numbers.

Go Bernie!!!

Feel the Bern!!!!

[JaneyVee]

4. Money is meaningless at this point. She has the momentum.

She literally doesnt need to spend a dollar in these states except Michigan.



And shes up big in Florida.

[madokie]

8. Yes US and Bernie will win this one

[Cal33]

14. Yes, funding Bernie is important. Our donations may be small, but our numbers are

large. And this large number is the equalizer.

Last night I was rather surprised that Bernie won in Oklahoma. I thought OK would
be for Hillary. It was a pleasant surprise.

After the middle of March there will be no more Southern States. Well, DC will be
one of the last to vote. And DC has a heavy black population, most of whom still
think that the Clintons are the ones who will be doing the most for black people.
Bernie should concentrate on working harder there, and let the people know better
who he is, and what he really stands for. Just tell them the truth.

I must say that the tremendous efforts of people like the DNC's Debbie W. Schulz
to keep Bernie Sanders from being seen and heard by the American public over the
past year has been paying off big dividends for the Establishment. But this unfair
advantage has been getting smaller and smaller by the day, and soon will no longer
be of any further help to them. Republican-lites fight just as dirty as their masters -
the Republicans.

[JaneyVee]

2. NC and FL arent even close as of now.

Neither are the other coming southern states. Math not looking good for Team Bern.

[Blue_Tires]

3. Sooner or later Sanders will need to capture a state with

a sizable minority population, and I don't see that happening...

[Adrahil]

5. Don't forget Michigan next.

Clinton is heavily favored there atm.

She is also heavily favored in NC and FL, though let's see what happens this week.

[SidDithers]

6. The math is bad for Bernie...

He's down by 194 delegates right now, with 128 delegates still to be awarded from last night (including 52 in Texas). Clinton's lead will increase once those delegates are portioned out.

So, even conservatively, lets say that Clinton has a 200 delegate lead, with 1021 of the 4051 pledged delegates awarded.

That means, of the remaining 3030 delegates available, Sanders has to win 56.6% of them to win the majority of pledged delegates.

And there are still large delegate states that are going to go Clinton's way, meaning that Sanders will have to win an even larger percentage in the states that he does win.

Sid

[leveymg]

7. They are practically irrelevant as GOP will likely win these states in GE

Not a lot to cheer about for Hillary really. Dem turnout is severely depressed. Trump appears to have added to the Republican numbers. We are in big trouble if she ends upb the candidate.

[auntpurl]

9. Right, so we could turn our attention to states that ARE going to be competitive in the GE.

Like Virginia.

PA, OH, FL - Hillary has substantial leads in the polls in all of them. Of course, polls can change - but as the OP mentions, this has pretty much gone as expected so far.

[leveymg]

10. Link to head to head polls in those states, please.

Thanks

[auntpurl]

12. Coming right up

Here you go:

Pennsylvania: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/pa/pennsylvania_democratic_presidential_primary-4249.html

Florida: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/fl/florida_democratic_presidential_primary-3556.html

Ohio: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/oh/ohio_democratic_presidential_primary-5313.html

She won Virginia yesterday.

[leveymg]

19. I meant head to head Clinton-Trump. These polls are Clinton-Sanders

[auntpurl]

20. No, of course not.

There is only national polling data available so far, as far as I know. In which Hillary is thrashing Trump. (as is Bernie)

But that's not really the point, is it? The point is, in order to win swing states, we should probably nominate the candidate that swing states want to vote for. Of course primary results aren't an exact analogy to GE results, but we should be giving ourselves the very best chance to win, shouldn't we?

[leveymg]

23. HRC polls way lower than Bernie among Independents, who are the dominant voting bloc nationwide.

So, obviously, Bernie is the pick, if you really want to win.

Hillary's negatives among Independents go back at least 8 years, and are only getting stronger over time.

[Cal33]

24. One big problem is that in many states Independents cannot take part in the primaries. So

they can't help Bernie in those states. Some might switch to the Dem. Party, but not many
will do that.

This also at least partially explains why national polls always show Bernie beating the
Republican front runners in hypothetical GE polls, and Hillary always losing to them, except
for the latest one, in which she beat Trump, but lost to Cruz and Rubio.

The Independents! (And they are the largest group)!

[auntpurl]

18. So, I posted your links.

Your thoughts?

[yardwork]

15. Is Massachusetts irrelevant?

I assume that you consider Oklahoma to be highly relevant.

[Cal33]

21. I don't think the GOP will be very strong this time around. I've read that (see JaneyVee's link

below) 48% of Republicans will not vote for Trump, if he should win the nomination. The
Republican Establishment is so much against him. And it looks like he will be the nominee
at this point. Of course there are Sanders supporters who will not vote for Clinton also, but
I don't think the figure comes anywhere near 48%.

I find the following really strange: All the national polls comparing Sanders to Republican
front runners since many months ago show that Sanders beats ALL of them in hypothetical
elections - and by large margins. Those polls comparing Clinton to Republican front runners
show her losing. Only the latest one shows her winning against Trump, but losing to Cruz
and Rubio. My guess is that the DNC is supporting Clinton, but the majority of the population
does not.

http://www.cnn.com/2016/03/01/politics/donald-trump-hillary-clinton-bernie-sanders-poll/

http://www.democraticunderground.com/12511379528

[Blue_Adept]

11. I cast my primary vote for Bernie yesterday

But I'm also aware of the math and don't see any path to the nomination for him at all based on what's happened so far and the tracking/stats going forward.

[yardwork]

13. Another south bashing thread.

NC will not be close.

And it's news to me that Iowa, New Hampshire, and Nevada are southern states. Those were the "early primaries."

[Cal33]

16. I never said that ALL the early voting states were from the South. I do believe that

most of the Southern States will have voted before the end of this month, after which
Bernie will be catching up.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

17. The fly in the ointment

HRC is + 29 in Florida:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/fl/florida_democratic_presidential_primary-3556.html

HRC is +21 in New York:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/ny/new_york_democratic_presidential_primary-4221.html

HRC is + 19 in Pennsylvania:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/pa/pennsylvania_democratic_presidential_primary-4249.html

HRCis + 21 in Ohio:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/oh/ohio_democratic_presidential_primary-5313.html

HRC is + 19 in Illinois:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/oh/ohio_democratic_presidential_primary-5313.html


HRC is + 19 in North Carolina:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/nc/north_carolina_democratic_presidential_primary-5175.html


HRC is +14 in California:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/ca/california_democratic_presidential_primary-5321.html

HRC is +19 In Michigan:


http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/mi/michigan_democratic_presidential_primary-5224.html


Senator Sanders is losing the states he is losing now . not because a quirk of the primary calendar, but because they are heterogeneous. The more heterogeneous the state the worse Senator Sanders does. That's an empirical observation and not a normative one.

[Orsino]

22. Time has always been on the side of the relative unknown. Sorta.

Exposure to the better message is how that message spreads and changes minds.

The Clinton campaign wins by default, and eight months has hardly been time enough for even the best message and most brilliant campaigning to crush the well-known brand.