Interesting: After declining, Obama sees bounce in American Life Panel tracking poll (leads by 3)...

[Drunken Irishman]

Yesterday, he was at 48.17 and today he's at 48.75. Romney was at 46.1 and is now at 45.65. So, Obama's margin is now 3.1 ... the best it's been in a few days. It's also the first time since the debate that Romney's support has dropped two days in a row.

https://mmicdata.rand.org/alp/?page=election#election-forecast

[Baitball Blogger]

1. k

[Maximumnegro]

2. This is the limbo until Tuesday

Interesting stuff. Tuesday is going to be a big night. I can't even imagine the spin the GOP is preparing.

And a totally random thought: how do we know Romney hasn't stacked the town hall? If those a-holes were low enough to bring up Biden's dead family to his face, then I sure as hell would bet they are trying to ensure the town hall audience is stacked.

[RBInMaine]

3. Not entirely sure but hope and expect they use measures to ensure a balanced town hall audience.

[octoberlib]

4. I googled "how do they pick the audience for the town hall presidential debate?"

Last edited Sat Oct 13, 2012, 05:40 AM - Edit history (1)

And this was one of the links that came up. It's from a right wing blog. http://hotair.com/greenroom/archives/2012/10/05/the-zombie-apocalypse-town-hall-debate-is-coming/ .......SNIP....... Am I the only one who loathes this kind of discussion arrangement?



Let’s unpack this, shall we? “Undecided voters selected by the Gallup Organization”—that phrase is fraught with peril. Any time I’ve watched a town hall debate with participants chosen in this way, it seems to me most of the “undecideds” skewed left. Who, by October 16, will be sincerely undecided? My guess is a bunch of that crowd will be disillusioned former Obama supporters who might not be looking for information so much as rationales for not abandoning their guy.

Tip for the Romney camp: Prepare as if the entire audience will be from a 2008 Obama rally..........SNIP.......

[octoberlib]

5. Townhall debate audience

....SNIP.....For the purposes of picking the debate audience, Gallup pollsters call people who live near the debate site – in this case, it’s on Oct. 16 at Hofstra University in Hempstead, NY – and ask a series of questions that were pre-approved by both campaigns.

“If they qualify as an uncommitted voter, then we invite them to be a participant in the debate,” he explained. http://washingtonexaminer.com/gallup-editor-closer-we-get-to-election-likely-voter-polls-become-more-important/article/2510280#.UHkwgcXA9js

[TroyD]

7. Romney was allowed to get away with stacking the Univision event

That was a clue that he is dangerous and should not be underestimated.

This time the Obama campaign & the media need to fight back against any treachery.

[Cosmocat]

9. He was desperate and unpresidential

I said before Thursday night that Biden would be characterized as bullying if he won the debate.

Just obvious given the GOP MO.

Romney WON by dominating the debate, so the frame changes when it is a D.

Whatever assertiveness that the President shows will be negatively framed as DESPERATE and unseemly for the President.

I don't think Ryan purposefully brought up the car car crash because of Biden. I think he was not horrible, but he clearly was in over his head a lot, and I think it just showed his lack of knowledge about things. If it where me, once I figured it out, I would have apologized (and make no mistake, the right wing and "liberal media" would be SCREAMING for that apology if the tables were turned).

[TroyD]

6. 'if the lines are within the gray band then the observed differences may be due to chance'

Looks like the lines are still within the gray band. So we're probably going to have to wait a few days to see if Obama's line can move up out of the gray band (which I assume is the Rand's form of the margin of error).

But it may be a good sign.

[Shivering Jemmy]

10. The differences may always be due to chance

If the numbers are outside the gray bands there is a 95% likelihood that the difference is not due to chance. Eyeballing today's difference that today we are 94% certain the difference is not due to chance.

[lame54]

8. thanks Joe

[Brewinblue]

11. OK, this one makes sense

Continually re-poll the same people to avoid sampling error.

[struggle4progress]

12. It's an interesting poll, but almost everything there is now within margin of error

[Shivering Jemmy]

14. so what

so there's a 94% likelihood the lead is real vs. a 95% likelyhood the lead is real?

You really want to argue that makes a difference?

[bushisanidiot]

13. Romney's minute in the sun is over. We will beging to see the "Biden Bounce" this weekend

Monday especially will be telling and will give the President some wind at his back
when he goes into Tuesday's debate. It's going to be a great week, folks!