John Kerry saw a bigger debate bounce than Romney has...

[Drunken Irishman]

So, when the media says this is unprecedented, they're absolutely wrong.

On the day of the first presidential debate in 2004, Bush led Kerry by six points nationally. A week after the debate, Bush's lead had disappeared and he was in a near-statistical tie with Kerry ... leading by only .8%. He lost a total of 5.2 points in a near-week's span.

Now while this number could change based on tomorrow's results, currently, Obama is .7% behind Romney. He led by 3.1 on the day of the debate. That's a loss of 3.8 points.

The difference, of course, is that Bush had a larger lead than Obama ... so, he was able to stay above water. However, the polls shifted and Bush's lead bumped back up to 4 points. The panic was almost the same from the right ... that Kerry got his game-changer. But when the bounce ended, Bush was back on top.

The point? We've seen this before. Eight years ago, in fact. Unless Obama is down two or three weeks from now, I see no reason to panic.

[regnaD kciN]

1. I think they're calculating the debate bounce..,

...from the Pew result on its own. O+8 to R+4 equals a twelve-point swing, slightly bettering the eleven-point swing (R+15 to R+4) achieved by Walter Mondale after his first debate against Reagan in 1984. (And, yes, that election wound up R+18, although the dynamics of that race were different enough to limit the applicability to this time around.)

[Drunken Irishman]

4. You take out that Pew Poll and Obama and Romney are exactly tied...

[mercymechap]

2. I hope you are absolutely without a

doubt correct. It appears that Obama should be winning, but Republicans have been busy working to suppress votes, create voter registration fraud and now with Romney lying his head off, it is enough to make a person worry.


I'm counting on Biden. If Biden doesn't pull a win over the zombie-eyed Ryan, we may have something to worry about.

[SunSeeker]

3. I remember that. Then he got swiftboated.

He thought he didn't have to fight the obvious lies. He was wrong. Another lesson for Obama.

But Obama has the likeability that Kerry never had--another reason the swiftboating was successful. As crappy as this last week was, Obama is still in a better place than Romney.

[JI7]

5. Media didn't talk up Kerry the way they are Romney

but i think one important difference is that on questions like who cares about us Kerry had a huge lead over Bush. even things like who is likable were tied or kerry led.

Romney is still very far behind when you ask those questions. and Obama has remained high or even gained in those areas.

[geek tragedy]

6. Kerry was behind at this point, and lost.

Obama is the one behind now.

Every candidate who has trailed at this stage of the race has lost.

No candidate who has trailed at this stage has become President.

McCain trailed and lost.
Kerry trailed and lost.
Gore trailed and never became President.
Dole trailed and lost.
Bush Senior trailed and lost.
Dukakis trailed and lost.
Mondale trailed and lost.
Carter trailed and lost.
Ford trailed and lost.
McGovern trailed and lost.

[Drunken Irishman]

7. Nice...

So, are are arbitrarily picking Oct. 9th or what? Why not Oct. 8th when Obama was leading? What if Obama takes the lead tomorrow ... does that mean he's guaranteed a victory?

I didn't know there was a statistic that said whoever trailed on Oct. 9th lost the election. Care to back it up?

[geek tragedy]

9. October 9, 2000: Bush ahead

http://archives.cnn.com/2000/ALLPOLITICS/stories/10/09/tracking.poll/

October 9, 2004:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/obama_vs_romney_compared_to_bush_vs_kerry.html

Bush ahead.

[Drunken Irishman]

12. Was he losing on Oct. 8th?

Your whole point is ridiculous. You're picking one day, out of many, and saying he who leads at this point wins the election. Why is it Oct. 9th and not Oct. 8th? Obama was leading 24 hours ago ... you're picking an arbitrary date to make a claim that isn't indicative of the election. So, because Obama went from leading to trailing in 24 hours, a month out from the election, he's guaranteed a loss? That's hooey and you know it.

Your whole argument has no basis in reality because every candidate you mentioned led weeks before October 9th. Obama led prior to Oct. 9th. Bush led prior to Oct. 9th. Clinton led prior to Oct. 9th. I could make the exact same claim you're making now by saying whomever is leading on Oct. 8th wins the election ... and it will be just as factual as yours because every candidate you listed was winning on ... OCTOBER 8TH!

[Stargleamer]

10. Truman trailed. . .

and we know how that turned out.

[geek tragedy]

14. Yeah, old Give 'Em Hell Barack in action.

"Four years ago I said that I am not a perfect man and that I wouldn't be a perfect President. That's probably a promise Governor Romney thinks I've kept."

Fuck yeah!

[andym]

17. Carter trailed? NO

Not in October -- it was close with polls showing a small lead for Carter or Reagan until October 28 -- their one and only debate. Carter was up 45 to 42 in Gallup on that date and down 45 to 42 in an ABC news poll-- it was basically tied.

[helpisontheway]

20. Okay Greek Tragedy

We get it! Election is over and there is no possibility of Obama winning. Guess we should all just stop discussing the national election ( well at least you should since you believe there is no chance of Obama winning) and focus on Congress.

[mary195149]

8. Yes, but Kerry did win the election.

The crazy things that went on in Ohio alone should of been investigated. Kenneth Blackwell, SOS for Ohio delivered win to George Bush in 2004, just like Katherine Harris, SOS delivered Florida to George Bush in 2000. How sickening!!

[TroyD]

11. We have to acknowledge it - it was an amazing comeback by Romney

And Obama & Axelrod seemed totally unprepared for and off their guard.

Obama bears some responsibility as he has said himself this week, but where was Obama's Team? They have done so well this year up until this point. Why were they asleep at the switch? They really let him down.

Why didn't they review the Ted Kennedy debate from 1994 where Ted spelled it out nearly 20 years ago:

MY OPPONENT IS MULTIPLE CHOICE!

Why wouldn't Axlerod be prepared for the fact that Romney was going to 'brazenly' lie? (Axelrod's words this week).

Why they didn't follow Ted Kennedy's lead, I have no idea.

[Drunken Irishman]

13. Yes, Troy. We get it.

You're always there to remind us how awful things are. How could anyone not realize it with you coming into any positive thread and pissing on it with your reason? I mean, seriously...you're not going to let us forget that we're in a very bad situation. WE GET IT! Obama fucked up! You telling us over and over and over again how bad things are won't change a goddamn thing.

But some of us have decided to not dwell solely on the negative and look at the potential positive ... something you're not able to do. So, yeah, thanks for the reminder that Obama shat the bed and fucked up royally. Thanks for keeping every positive poster in check by telling us OVER AND OVER again HOW BAD IT IS.

Where would we be without you?!?

[TroyD]

16. You're off on the wrong track

And you don't need to be patronzing. I do lots of good work and post lots of good information and lots of incriminating information on Romney. I thank those who have told me that they appreciate it.

I posted the latest Mother Jones report showing all of Romney's Chinese stock holdings in the hope that it would get out to as many people and hopefully be used by the Obama campaign.

There are many other people saying the same thing as me. It just comes as a huge shock to us that David Axelrod was so unprepared.

And I AM looking at the positive - I will continue to post positive stories as I have all day.

But the shock of it was enough to drive one to despair.

I'm hoping that we turn the corner tomorrow.

[Drunken Irishman]

18. Every post I've made that's been positive, you've been there to remind us how bad it is...

That's annoying. I don't need you to remind me over and over again how bad the situation is. I see it. I see the polls. I hear the narrative. You hitting me over the head with negative news, telling me how he fucked up is not helping.

[Maximumnegro]

19. If you've worked on campaigns

then you must have read the interview the O campaign gave Halperin and recognize they make a very good case for the debate not being the game changer everyone thinks it is. Given their track record -minus one night - I'd say they're probably, right. Wouldn't you?

[TroyD]

21. Well yes, they're right that Obama still has the ability to win : )

And still has some fundamentals favoring him, but as someone else pointed out above, one always has to sound confident to the press about winning - you don't want to give out an interview where you say you are losing.

[geek tragedy]

15. Obama himself is the one who blew off debate prep and felt that it was beneath

hisbeneath his dignity to scrap with Romney.