The polls are going to be all over the place, but don't be surprised if Romney gets the better end.

[Drunken Irishman]

Pew aside, I anticipate the other news polls to show Romney either leading or tied with Obama. There seems to be a true divergence between the tracking polls and the non-tracking polls.

Gallup has Obama up +5
Rasmussen has it tied
American Life Panel has Obama +4

Pew, the first non-tracking poll released since the debate, has Romney +4

Pew might prove to be an outlier, but it's a pretty trusted polling firm, so, I'm not going to throw 'em under the bus. It should be pointed out that Gallup is still using its RV model and hasn't moved over to LV, as Rasmussen has for some time now. So, it's possible among RV, Romney and Obama are much narrower, tied or Romney leads. Pew is of LV.

So, if Pew is not an outlier, I fully expect the next batch of national polls (NBC/Wall Street Journal, CNN, FOX News, ABC News, CBS News) to give Romney some pretty solid numbers. By the end of the week, unfortunately, Obama could be down in almost every national poll. Of course, this is just speculation ... and we don't know how long a potential deficit might last (if it happens at all). But it should interesting none the less. I think it's obvious, though, Romney got a game-changer in the debate. It allowed him to climb back into the race after looking pretty much done. That's remarkable ... but not unheard of. In '04, Kerry erased a seven-point deficit and pulled to within a near-tie of Bush. Of course, it didn't last. We'll see if this does.

[budkin]

1. Romney's leads won't hold. There is too much time left and 3 debates

Especially with his lies and the good jobs numbers

[TroyD]

6. There are 2 more Presidential debates

the other is the Vice Presidential

[Tippy]

2. They are all over the place....but that lead Romney has could be a fluke..

[Drunken Irishman]

3. Yes. We'll know when other national polls are released in the coming days.

[teabaggersarestupid]

4. Question about Pew poll

Is it just me or does it seem odd that 83% of likely voters are White and 0 Hispanics were polled? Am I reading the numbers wrong or is this the case? 83% seems awfully high.

In addition, 58% of white voters support Romney. I read an article a few weegs ago stating that Romney would need to win 61% of the white vote to win the election. This is further evidence that whites are oversampled.

Plus plus, there is not much evidence in the state polling that suggests a Romney lead. There are polls showing an Obama lead in Colorado, which is less likely for Obama to win than Virginia. Even Rasmussen has Obama up in Colorado.

Ohio polls post-debate have been bad for Obama but those were one day polls just after the debate and were conducted by conservative polling firms.

At any rate, could someone elaborate o the Pew crosstabs?

[littlemissmartypants]

5. Welcome to the DU!