New SC Poll from ARG: Hillary Clinton ahead of Bernie Sanders by 65% to 27%

[ProudToBeLiberal]

New poll from ARG, Clinton up 74%-19% among black voters, who make up 53% of the Democratic survey sample; lead shrinks to 54%-35% among white voters.

http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/trackers/2016-02-14/trump-clinton-hold-wide-leads-in-s-c-arg-poll

[Lil Missy]

1. Amazing how vastly different States can be. Hillary will do very well in SC.

[Lorien]

9. Because it's one of the most right wing religious States in the Country

Very telling.

[DrDan]

17. because of the AA vote - not the RW vote

[Recursion]

50. Chicken, egg

Black Democrats are about twice as likely to call themselves "conservative" as white Democrats. Some of this is chicken and egg; black Democrats are just about our only holdout in the Deep South (though growing Latino numbers are changing that), and "conservative" may be more of a social signal there than anything else. But it's pretty hard to deny that:

1. Sanders is running to the left of Clinton on almost every issue, and

2. African Americans are in aggregate on the "right" end of the Democratic party

[Codeine]

25. Right wingers aren't voting in the Democratic

Primary.

[Carolina]

29. You never know

I'm in SC and you do not have to declare party affiliation. Therefore, anyone can vote in any primary, but only in one primary.

For example, in 2012, BHO was running unopposed, so there was no Dem primary. Therefore, my Dem friends and I voted in the repuke primary. We wanted the pubs to fight it out among themselves and rough each other up rather than fall in line behind Romney so early in the game and thus have more time, money and ammo against our side for the general election

We all voted for Newt Gringrich and he won which threw Romney off... mission accomplished.

So repukes may do likewise if they hate all the members of the clown car.

[Tanuki]

42. Not a comparable situation. You are comparing an unopposed 2012 primary, when some Dems

felt comfortable crossing over, to a hotly contested GOP primary this year, in which both Trump and Cruz have a strong and intense following in SC and fans of the other candidates are determined to make a statement and pick up some delegates if at all possible. Also, as the OP notes, Clinton's greatest strength in SC continues to be in the African American community, where there would be very little GOP base for crossover voting. It is interesting how much denial there is around here about Clinton's popularity in ethnically diverse states.

BTW, I have had many happy times in your beautiful state and feel overdue for a visit!

[Carolina]

43. I know it's not comparable to

2012. My point was the very last sentence. Dems are not likely going to play primary mischief this year, but some repukes MAY crossover because they may be completely put off by the entire GOP clown car.

Also, I live in SC, am black and working hard with others to GOTV for Bernie!

[Carolina]

47. PS thanks for the compliment

about SC. I'm a nearly lifelong DC 'girl' (4 months to nearly 41 years) who became an SC transplant because my husband wanted to return to his native south.

At first, I HATED it, especially politically, but have now grown to like it immensely. Despite the deep redness of the state, there are wonderful, talented people here...

[bigdarryl]

41. Most AA in the south are not to the left like Sanders is

In fact a lot of them do vote republican sometimes when you have a Governor like Nicky Haley.If she ran for reelection in SC she would get a large share of the AA vote because of that church shooting and how she handled it.That's why I think she's going to be on the short list of Vice President who ever gets the nomination

[Art_from_Ark]

46. You speak for AA's in the South?

The most reliably Democratic areas in Arkansas are almost all heavily AA. Lee County, for example, is majority AA-- 55%-- a rate that is much higher than the state's average of 15.6% And Lee County always votes heavily for the Democratic presidential candidate-- 60% or more-- while the state as a whole generally supports the Republican candidate by the same rate.

[bigdarryl]

56. No but I'm African American and I'm from GA

Originally.

[book_worm]

27. Really? And that is why Obama won the Democratic primary in 2008, too?

Maybe on the GOP side it is but not in the Democratic primary.

[virtualobserver]

2. we will see....... C- rating from 538

[ProudToBeLiberal]

5. The recent Nevada poll had a worse rating, but the Bernie supporters were trumpeting it. Nt

[OhZone]

8. True! nt

[JRLeft]

3. She's not behaving like she's way up in SC.

I want control of the SC.

[Dawson Leery]

37. If she could run the margin up, she could effectively end this primary campaign.

Hillary is best after a loss. NH will motivate her to do better.

[JRLeft]

38. My number 1 priority is the SC.

[thesquanderer]

57. Maybe she's smartly lowering expectations, to make her win seem more impressive. (n/t)

[xynthee]

4. A lot can happen in two weeks! NT

[Joe the Revelator]

6. So, If I remember correctly, Bernie only has to get to 30% to win...

...right?

[jfern]

7. ARG was horribly wrong in NH

[TTUBatfan2008]

10. What did their NH poll say?

Thanks in advance.

[jfern]

11. Bernie by 9. He won by 22.4.

[TTUBatfan2008]

14. So she's up 25ish...

I don't understand why her campaign is pulling character attacks if she is up 25-30 in so many states (SC, OK, MI, etc.)

[jfern]

33. I'm sure ARG is capable of being off more than that.

[Bucky]

49. 400 interviews, made by phone call... probably to land lines

I'm pretty sure this poll underrepresents Sanders, perhaps by as much as 10 points.

[ucrdem]

12. A blowout would be nice but there are lots of players in this game so I'll be happy just to win.

[Motown_Johnny]

13. Hillary needs to win SC by 40%! Thanks for posting. n/t

[Eric J in MN]

19. Why? NT

NT

[Motown_Johnny]

20. Well, if she is ahead by ~40% now, anything less would be her losing support.

So for her to just be holding her own, she needs to win by that much.












BTW. that post was snark.

[book_worm]

28. If he loses SC by that much the media will be putting out a new talking point

like it did with Hillary? You know that she can't win under 30's, but with Bernie it will be he can't win minorities.

[Eric J in MN]

59. A race usually tightens as an election nears. NT

NT

[DCBob]

55. LOL!

That is an amazing lowering of expectations!

[Dem2]

15. I know ARG is not a preferred pollster,

but I was rather surprised that Bernie didn't see a significant bump in support after NH.

[DemocraticSocialist8]

18. That's what makes me skeptical of the poll

That and that it's lumping together 2 different age groups into one. In all likelihood Sanders losses SC...even WITH a win in NV. I just don't want to see him get blown out.

[DemocraticSocialist8]

16. I have to be honest that I expected it to be much tighter than that

The one problem I see with the poll is that it lumps together a huge age group of 18-49. So once again it's impossible to know how many youth voters were actually polled. This poll implies there's been no movement at all since IA & NH which is hard to believe.

[Bucky]

48. It's a bit disheartening. But as a former pollster, I can give you some caveats

I was a market research manager in the 90s. Even then we were finding our polling age-skewed older by the move of younger consumers to cell phones. With a sampling of 400 voters for SC (the 2008 primary had 600k voters), their margin of error is 5%. I expect a lower turnout this time (a chance at electing the first black president was groundshaking at the time), but the age-split problem is like THE defining feature of this year's election.

Given that Sanders is probably underrepresented in this poll, then this poll could actually represent good news. If the media is expecting Sanders to only pull about 30% of the vote (and TV news shows are horribly ignorant about what polls mean and how they work) and instead he wins 40%, then the new narrative will be that Bernie can turn out new voters. This will help him in the short run. In the long run, nothing will help him more than a Cruz nomination and a Bloomberg vacation to a Texas ranch.

[KingFlorez]

21. Looks about right

This will be a huge win for Clinton.

[mgmaggiemg]

22. agree ;) good choice

[Carolina]

32. Don't count

your chickens...

We're working hard here in SC to spread the word about the Clinton legacy (NAFTA, Welfare Reform, 3-strikes, overturning Glass-Steagall) and HRC's record (IWR, Wall Street, chaos in Honduras, Libya).

Working hard to get folks to feel the Bern

[KingFlorez]

39. Ok

I'm sure Bernie will end up winning by over 30% by the time you all are done.

[SheenaR]

23. Thanks for posting

If I learned one thing from this author it is that now that the polls are coming out, we as the underdog can set a variety of arbitrary numbers that will quantify a "win" for our side. So thank you for giving us that.

[ProudToBeLiberal]

24. Don't do this to me man. nt

[SheenaR]

26. Ok

1. As long as you know deep down what you did over and over before NH I will lay off.

2. I'm a woman.

[ProudToBeLiberal]

30. My apologies. nt

[book_worm]

31. Among 18-49 years olds Hillary leads by 21 points

50 above she leads by 50-points 70-20.

[Dawson Leery]

36. She may have a small deficit with the 18-29 year old crowd.

Massive leads among reliable voters though.

[SoLeftIAmRight]

34. State Education Ranking Shows Vermont #1, South Carolina Last

something to think about

[Dawson Leery]

35. Joy Reid and Dead Intern must be having a sad moment right about now.

Hillary has been working the crowds today and will again tomorrow in Las Vegas.
Don't count her out just yet. She has been there for the past year.

[BluegrassDem]

40. Bernie CANNOT afford to lose SC by a HUGE margin

Not because of delegates or anything like that, it's the story line that would kill his campaign. That being that he doesn't have the support of African-Americans and no person can win the nomination without support from AA's. It really would doom him. It just would be a horrible story line. It would also portend him getting wiped out in all the other southern states.

[Bucky]

45. probly true. I think he'll do better than 27%, if that's any consolation

Clinton needs a big win in SC and it looks like she's going to get it. If Sanders can't break 35% there, he's just a protest candidate.

[kenn3d]

63. Very few current polls... but here's a new one from 2/12

There are a lot of variables in play for SC... some of which may not be clearly seen in the scarce polling we've had there. The results in Nevada may sway SC voters some, and Sanders has a significant campaign presence on the ground. Younger AA voters may turnout differently than the Clinton "Firewall" theory portends.

We'll see soon enough.

[Live and Learn]

52. Argh, the mushroom filled with creme argument again. 'Cut It Out' nt

[Bucky]

44. I boldly predict that Sanders will do less well in SC than he does on DU

I also expect DU to unleash a torrent of Carolina bashing after the results come in.

[hoosierlib]

53. The modeling is interesting...

The poll assumes that African American voters as a percentage of the electorate in the Democratic will match 2008 (ARG poll has it at 53% and 2008 was 55%). My guess is that is a little high given that President Obama is not running. My guess is that turnout will more likely be in the 47% (2000) to 49% (2004) range which makes it a slightly tighter race, but not by much..lol.

This poll could be an outlier...need more data...

[DCBob]

54. If this correct Bernie has made virtually no progress with POC in this state.

One that reflects the country much more than NH or Iowa.

[DemocraticSocialist8]

60. This is why I have a hard time believing the poll until another one comes out to confirm or deny it

Bernie has been investing a lot in SC and this poll implied it's had ZERO affect which I don't believe. I still think she wins, but not by this large a margin.

[hobbit709]

58. And when was the last time South Carolina went D in the general election? Oh yeah, 1976.

"South Carolina. Too small to be a republic and too large to be an insane asylum"

[Gothmog]

61. These are strong polling numbers

[Stuckinthebush]

62. SC is the kickoff to the Bernie slide

His high water mark was NH.