Clinton's Secret Weapon in Nevada Could Launch Her Comeback

[bravenak]

http://www.motherjones.com/politics/2016/02/hillary-clinton-nevada-caucus-robby-mook-emmy-ruiz

[hobbit709]

1. "Mook Mafia" pretty much tells you what you need to know.

[bravenak]

2. It tells me they play to win

[hobbit709]

3. And are willing to try every trick in the book.

[bravenak]

5. Better read the book

[hobbit709]

6. I've read many thousands of books.

One thing I've learned is that anyone that wants something so bad that they can taste it is usually willing to do practically anything to get it. Ethics, conscience, and morality be damned.

[bravenak]

7. Both candidates want this bad

Equal risk

[hobbit709]

8. Not the way Clinton wants it.

[Rocky the Leprechaun]

15. I hear the word mook, I think Rove/Mafia

No doubt about that. Mook is a stupid and incompetent person (the official definition) and it fits him to a Tee.

[hobbit709]

16. I got a hide back at XMas for posting the dictionary definition.

[Rocky the Leprechaun]

17. That certainly wasn't deserved then.

People can't just see the simple facts in front of them.

[hobbit709]

18. Not can't, WON'T

[morningfog]

4. I can't wait.

[SidDithers]

9. DU rec...nt

Sid

[Katashi_itto]

10. Gee more dirty tricks? I am shocked!

[Vattel]

11. Mook was her secret weapon in New Hampshire too.

[bravenak]

25. Ok?

He was way ahead and the pretty much shifted to NV and SC a while ago.

[Jarqui]

27. She was +4.3 Dec 1st nt

lost by 22 pts

Big swing in Iowa as well 30 pt lead in early November - to finish in a tie that many think Sanders won in popular vote.

[bravenak]

30. This is Feb

[Jarqui]

31. That's right. She lost 30 pts in a matter of weeks, 11 pts nationally since Jan 1

Most would suggest that's not good whether one regarded her as inevitable or not.

Guy starts with nothing and 9 months later beats the Clinton machine by 22 pts in New Hampshire ... that's a heck of an accomplishment (66 pt swing since Apr 1). It reflects well on the winning candidate and doesn't look good for the losing candidate.

[bravenak]

33. He has 11 days

[Jarqui]

34. And so does she

[bravenak]

35. She is 20 pts ahead.

Tick tock. And if he's there, then he has no time for Super Tuesday states.
Then he gets colorado. But the south mmm mmm mmm, what to do? Go south? Super tuesday states? To NV? Not much time...

[Jarqui]

38. I hope that's what Hillary thinks is the state of the race right now

However, their internal polling is probably telling them something quite different because they haven't polled there for a while (probably in part due to the Clintons pressing some to sit on the results because they're not going to be good)

https://www.ralstonreports.com/blog

UPDATED, 2/9/16, 2 PM: How serious is Bernie Sanders about winning Nevada? I've confirmed (from someone who has seen the buys) he just made a $1 million buy for the coming week (30-second and 60-second spots), bringing his total to $3.6 million spent on the airwaves -- twice what Hillary Clinton has bought overall and almost three times what she has on through the 15th.

https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/697278857842274305
Jon Ralston ?@RalstonReports 9 hours ago
Clearest sign that Team Clinton is in a panic is this @rosiegray story w/lowering of expectations.

Defeated In New Hampshire, Clinton Camp Already Forecasting Closer Race In Nevada
http://www.buzzfeed.com/rubycramer/defeated-in-new-hampshire-clinton-camp-already-forecasting-c#.fcV9jYVG5

“There’s a reason to believe the race will tighten even there,” a spokesman said on Tuesday morning. This is not the race the Clinton campaign expected.

The article talks about how the Clinton campaign touted Nevada as a firewall and Bernie couldn't get the Latino vote, etc. Now they're singing a much different tune - not even confident of a win.

Still think she's up by 20 in Nevada? I doubt it.

[bravenak]

40. They say they are campaigning like shes 20 pts behind so, i think he has a big hurdle

2 states back to back that do not know him. Minorities. People who are not convinced by his big rallies. People who have to be asked, pandered to like he does with his rhetoric to his supporters. People who are moderate, conservative Dems.

People who like to be asked not told. This is nice to see people acting like he has this think locked up. Helps hillary

[Jarqui]

42. It's tightened up considerably since the last poll like IA and NH did

https://twitter.com/ralstonreports

Jon Ralston ?@RalstonReports 9 hours ago
So Hillary has been touting for a year her NV team and outreach to Hispanics and suddenly we are almost as white as NH and IA? Really? 4/?

Jon Ralston ?@RalstonReports 9 hours ago
Some facts:
NV's Hispanic population is more than 25 percent. African-American pop is about 9 percent. Asian/PI about 9 percent. 5/?

Jon Ralston ?@RalstonReports 9 hours ago
'08 NV caucus: 30% nonwhite.
'16 Dem voters: 40% nonwhite:
African Americans - 13%
Latinos - 20.8%
AAPI - 4.3%
Native Americans - 2.3%
6/?

Jon Ralston ?@RalstonReports 9 hours ago
So, finally, for Team Clinton to make it seem now as if NV is a non-diverse state with one of those unpredictable caucuses is pathetic. 7/7

Jon Ralston ?@RalstonReports 9 hours ago
Jon Ralston Retweeted Jon Ralston
I meant @rubycramer. Sorry, tweeps. Was so mad about ridiculously outrageous Clinton spin I used wrong handle. Jon Ralston added,

Jon is a good political reporter in Nevada

http://www.rgj.com/story/news/politics/2016/02/09/ralston-reports-up-next-diverse-unpredictable-nevada/80088800/

I still think Hillary has a slight edge over Bernie because of her superior staff and appeal to minorities, but it could be close.

That's no 20 pts lead

Gabriel Debenedetti Verified account ?@gdebenedetti
Sanders' Devine: Internal polling shows "tremendous movement w Latino voters in NV. I think that will be replicated all across the country."

Lucy FloresVerified account
?@LucyFlores Lucy Flores
Seeing this everyday. I've been talking w/ supporters in predominately Latino NE Las Vegas; clear momentum 4 #Bernie

[bravenak]

43. 10 days

[Jarqui]

44. If a poll comes out soon and he's within 12 pts he's got a shot

If it's only a 6 pt lead, she's probably in trouble because the polls so far have favored her by about 4pts (in part due to the slanted demographics).

More than 12 pts, it's tough for him to overcome that in 10 days. With the ad buys they just made and the chatter, I doubt it's that much.

[cali]

12. The question of a comeback is absurd

She is still the prohibitive favorite and will almost certainly be the nominee.

I'm just thrilled that Sanders changed the issue focus in this race and sent a wake-up call to the political establishment.

[bravenak]

13. Now we move to focus on things people in thise diverse states want to focus on

I hope he can find a way to connect. Those two losses will curb his momentum. And quiet his message.

[cali]

19. I don't think his message is going to be quieted

I certainly don't understand the prevailing currents in the AA community as well as you, but AA voters also have concerns about the issues Bernie is bringing to the forefront.

In any case, Hillary has huge problems. She is not trusted. Voters think she is dishonest. She will almost certainly lose us the White House. I've been spot on so far about this race except for underestimating Bernie's margin in NH. You have been wildly off.

You just don't seem to be able to detach your emotions from your analysis.

[kenfrequed]

21. Agreed "comeback?"

You can't be the "comeback kid" in a forced narrative where you have been the odds on favorite for six months.

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/primary-forecast/nevada-democratic/

And given the polling in Nevada, unless she pulls off an overwhelming victory by over twenty points she actually underperforms. Squeaking by will not actually give her a solid win.

[Rocky the Leprechaun]

14. Her secret weapon is already out.

It's called "bullshit talks, bullshit walks". Even PoC in NH has rejected Clinton.

I expect the same for Nevada, and SC notices, and rejects Clinton too.

[InAbLuEsTaTe]

37. Yup yup... instead of releasing the Kracken, maybe Hillary should release the transcripts.

Bernie & Elizabeth 2016!!!

[kenfrequed]

20. Uhm...

The caucus system of handicapping and pumping to deprive is officially over. There are only two candidates going into Nevada and no one in the Sanders camp is going to jump ship over to Hillary just to deliver more delegates out of the state.

That said, last count she already had a healthy lead there though it has been by Gravis (which has been consistently over representing Hillary support both in Iowa and New Hampshire) so if she is already going to win there Mook really doesn't make for much of a "secret weapon."

[bravenak]

24. Look. I just copy the headlines.

We know she's ahead but he's running like she's way behind. Makes sense. No complacency. Last time she was complacent

[kenfrequed]

26. Complacency was not her problem last time

She ran differently because at this point there were a lot more candidates on the table.

[DCBob]

41. I think her campaign didn't take the caucuses seriously and thought she would win without them.

I think she even admits that now. They are not making that same mistake this time around.

[panader0]

22. Secret weapon? Isn't Mook already HRC's campaign manager?

[bravenak]

23. They call it secret.

[mhatrw]

28. Is this a political campaign or a Dilbert comic strip?

I asked Ruiz if she's trying to replicate the Ganz-style community-based organizing that Mook used last time. "Absolutely!" she responded. "We've been able to bring together a lot of the best practices of different organizing styles. Similar to what we ran with Robby in 2008, there's a high emphasis on community outreach and empowering precinct captains to really take ownership of organizing their communities."

...

Much like Mook, who once unhappily suffered through a Céline Dion concert just to win support from a local LGBT group, Ruiz has placed a big emphasis on micro-targeting to appeal to the interests of groups across the state, a strategy involving what she calls "culturally competent community programs."

...


Nevada is supposed to be a firewall for Clinton after a rocky start to the campaign. If Mook can expand on his 2008 performance there, he could help launch a series of statewide victories and quiet any talk of a campaign in disarray. But if that fire starts to flame out, Clinton's trajectory might start to look a lot like it did in 2008, and Mook could suffer the fate that's befallen Clinton's past managers.

[Depaysement]

39. Comic strip

Hey, maybe Mook winds up doing a great job, but your highlights show the article was written by someone with limited campaign experience.

[cherokeeprogressive]

29. "Secret Weapon" implies verge of defeat. And "comeback"? That just makes me think of...

[bravenak]

32. Hey. Comedy is just thinking that NH is the bellweather for NV and SC.

It is what it is. She's way up in both states and has the bigger ground game. And she's well known. He has alot of introducing, meeting greeting and catching up to do.

People in those states dont vote based on any other state. Most states dont. Some primaries are closed. Some shut down registration and party changes a month ahead.

As he shifts state to state he has ground to make up. And that pesky delegate deficit.

[DCBob]

36. Nevada is whole nuther ballgame as is South Carolina.

States that reflect most of what the rest of America looks like. Hillary will do well in both... I have no doubt.