Hmmm...on REAL CLEAR POLITICS' own map, OHIO is no longer in play...Obama/Biden has 265 EV

[brooklynite]

He can lose Florida, Virginia, North Carolina, New Hampshire and Iowa and still win.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/2012_elections_electoral_college_map.html

[groundloop]

1. It's interesting they can call some states a tossup,

yet President Obama has been ahead in every single poll, including the R leaning polls, for the past 2, 3, or 4 weeks.

[DCBob]

3. I think a 5 point lead is their threshold for becoming a leaner.

That's a big lead in some states. Seems to me it should be something like 3 or 4%.

[DCBob]

2. Nice. That must have just happened today..

with the new Q/NYT/CBS poll.

[TexasCPA]

4. I am not a fan of RCP

but the media tends to use them as a source.

They use 5% as the cutoff of toss up to leans.

[Stuart G]

5. It means that Obama needs to take only one of these states...

Toss Up (82) according to REal Clear Politics.....Obama..265



Colorado (9)



Florida (29)



Iowa (6)



Nevada (6)






North Carolina (15)



Virginia (13)

.

[TroyD]

6. Real Clear Politics moves OHIO into Obama's column

That is indeed a huge development on THAT site. They've had OHIO as a Toss-Up all year. Other sites like Huff Po and some of the others have often had Ohio in Obama's column, but never RCP.

[LiberalFighter]

7. Indiana only leans Rmoney? Woohoo!! Indiana's going Obama again

Let's play some mind games with the opposition on this.

[TroyD]

8. 'ABC has shifted Ohio from "tossup" to "lean Dem" in our presidential race ratings'

Just posted by Zach Wolf of ABC:

http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/Elections/fullpage?id=17012629

[JaneQPublic]

16. ABC has Obama with only 201 electoral votes...

...as opposed to RCP's new total of 265 for Obama.

ABC still has WI as tossup, which is totally unreasonable, in light of recent polling (by pollsters other than ABC's), and they have NC as leaning GOP rather than a tossup.

[muriel_volestrangler]

9. And in their 'no tossups' map, every single tossup goes to Obama

making it 347-191.

[JRLeft]

10. Ohio is either a likely dem or solid dem, but it is stronger than lean.

[dmallind]

11. Anybody know which of NC VA FL likely to be called first?

Obviously it depends on closeness but assuming, as we probably can, that all 3 are within a few points either way, which is likely to deliver results first?

While mathematically Romney is still in the race losing any of them, practically speaking my hardly out-on-a-limb take is that once I see any of them called blue it's time to go home smiling (I'll be at the bar when results start coming in).

[JaneQPublic]

12. Obama has the biggest lead in VA.

His leads in the three states you mentioned, according to RCP averages, are as follows:

VA = 4.5

FL = 3.1

NC = 1.0


So, if 5.0 points is the lead RCP requires to move a state out of toss-up status, then VA is getting pretty darn close.

[brooklynite]

13. FL will be called last...

...it stretches into Central Time Zone, and after the 2000 fiasco (the calling, not the counting) they'll hold off to be safe.

[Liberal_Stalwart71]

15. I think VA is going to be called first because NC and FL will be close.

I think Obama will win VA handily. He'll have a tougher time in NC and FL with the voter suppression. His leads are also not as healthy in those states.

[Adenoid_Hynkel]

14. She's clearing her throat and ready to go on, Mittens...

[LakeErieLiberal]

17. Things are looking better

But we must stay committed and use this polling evidence that people still considering Romney are not mainstream and get even more voters into the Obama camp. People need to know that the Democratic Party's policies put a floor under the recession that the Republican's caused and that they're the one's who will keep making things better as we go forward.

Nobody but the 1% trying to buy this election has any business voting for this republican party so we've got to keep fighting even though things look good.

This brand of Republicans will do anything to try to obtain power...even if it means intentionally attempting to tank the economy as we have seen.

[yellowcanine]

18. Ohio and Virginia are in the Eastern Time Zone so if they drop for Obama early it is virtually

lights out for Mitt on election night. At that point NC and Florida would be icing on the cake.