Gallup national poll: Rmoney 36, Grinch 20, Santo 20... but Santo moving up

[DCBob]

from Slate..

Fresh off his hat trick Tuesday, Rick Santorum is surging in the national polls and is now tied with Newt Gingrich for second place.

The new Gallup poll numbers, which represent the five-day average of its daily surveys, show both Santorum and Gingrich knotted at 20 percent each. Mitt Romney, meanwhile, remains out in front, favored by 36 percent of likely GOP voters. Ron Paul sits in fourth with 10 percent.

The good news for Santorum is that the five-day average spans back to Saturday, three days before he posted dominant wins in Minnesota and Missouri and a surprise upset of Romney in Colorado, suggesting that we may not yet be seeing the complete bump the former Pennsylvania senator will see as a result.

http://slatest.slate.com/posts/2012/02/09/santorum_nabs_more_support_in_national_poll_of_registered_republicans.html

poll: http://www.gallup.com/poll/election.aspx

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Michigan and Arizona will be critical in what happens next.

[grantcart]

1. You can post the gif if you want to show the trend.

[DCBob]

2. Thanks but that graphic is a bit dated. Santorum and Gingrich are tied now.

Is there a way to get the gif of the current Galup Flash graphic with the latest numbers?

[joshcryer]

3. Here ya go:

[customerserviceguy]

4. Again, add up the Noot and Ricky totals

and they exceed the Mittens mark. I guess it's crazy to think that all of Santorum's vote would go to Gingrich if he dropped out (I would suppose that at least a goodly number of fundies simply cannot stand Grinch) but I really can't see any of Gingrich's vote going to Romney if he dropped out, after the acrimony between them. If Mitt makes good on his pledge to go nasty on Santorum, he can kiss a fair percentage of that vote goodbye, too.

We're a lot farther away from a single anti-Romney than I thought we'd be at this point, but I still see it coming. Take away the Noot's Super-PAC and he's just a babbling idiot.

[DCBob]

6. Yes, in this case I agree with you. Most of Newts votes would go to Santorum.

If that happens it will become much more difficult for Romney but I think he still wins it in the end.

[customerserviceguy]

7. The only determining factor

is how long it takes to produce one solid anti-Mitt. If Santorum can beat Noot by at least a couple of percentage points in Georgia, and by a half dozen or so in other Super Tuesday Southern contests, it's difficult to see Gingrich coming back from that one. It would be like Romney losing Utah.

If the three-way keeps on going until May, then I do see Romney making effective use of divide and conquer. However, it's still possible that he does not go to the convention with a first-ballot victory safely in hand. Any 'discretionary' delegates (not sure if the Pubes still use superdelegates or not) will watch the summer carefully. I've noted that not all of the GOP establishment has jumped on the Romney bandwagon, they're still keeping their powder dry.

[DCBob]

8. yes, what Gingrich does will have a big impact on where this goes now.

There are GOP superdelegates but not as many as Democrats but they could be the deciding factor if this ends up close.

[customerserviceguy]

9. News radio I listened to on the way home

said that Noot gave a well received speech at CPAC today. However, there's a difference between clapping for someone, and voting for them.

[DCBob]

10. Gingrich can still fire them up with his hot button one-liners.

But yeah, who knows if that means votes. If Santorum had that ability he would be dangerous.

[customerserviceguy]

12. If Santorum had that ability

HE would have been the one to win South Carolina and Florida.

Still, you gotta agree, "man on dog" is a classic!

[Marsala]

5. PPP says that their latest poll shows that Santorum now has the lead.

Nate Silver tweets:

"Santorum would be 11th GOPer to lead a national poll, joining Bachmann Cain Christie Gingrich Giuliani Huckabee Palin Perry Romney & Trump"

Dear God. How is it even possible for a party's candidates to be this terrible?

[joshcryer]

11. That's amazing. Simply amazing.

[Bruce Wayne]

13. Holy Santorum Blow Out!

Ha-ha: "Holy Santorum." Like he needs the encouragement.