PPP: FLORIDA (Obama +4), 50 - 46

[TroyD]

Barack Obama leads Mitt Romney 50-46 on our new FL poll. Should have the full thing up by around 8. Obama's gained 3 pts since Labor Day

https://twitter.com/ppppolls/status/250010437750505472

1 year of tax returns not enough for Florida voters- 52% want to see 12 years of Romney's returns to 39% who do not

Independent in Florida thought the 47% comments were inappropriate by a 58/37 margin

Where Romney's really lost ground in Florida over the last 3 weeks is with Democrats- doesn't have the crossover support he did

Romney's net favorability in Florida has dropped 9 points in the last three weeks

[davidn3600]

1. Florida makes me nervous

Here's why...

In 2010, for Governor, Alex Sink was leading Rick Scott by 4 points according to most polls right before the election. Scott also had extremely low negative popularity numbers. Yet, Scott still ended up winning.

Plus now we have purged voter rolls and god knows what other kind of suppression in mind.

I think this state is going to end up very close. I would rather have the election wrapped but by taking both Virgina and Ohio. That makes it extremely difficult, practically impossible, for Romney to win even if Obama loses Florida.

[Jennicut]

3. Scott had the lead at 1.2% when the last polls were averaged together.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2010/governor/fl/florida_governor_scott_vs_sink_vs_chiles-1607.html

And he won 48.8% vs 47.7% for Sink. So the final average was pretty on. I think when looking back on particular races some people remember a certain poll that had someone ahead but the final tally averaged together usually is not that off.

Obama beat McCain 50.9% to 48.1%. The final average of the polling was 1.8%. So the polling actually undervalued Obama there. http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/fl/florida_mccain_vs_obama-418.html

[bluestateguy]

2. I'm sure that will cue Gravis Marketing to cook something up for their man

Can't let RCP and HP turn Florida blue in their maps; got to keep fiddling with the poll averages.