"Even if Clinton wins SC decisively, the race will be far from over."

[Flying Squirrel]

South Carolina is Clinton’s firewall. The South Carolina Democratic Party is predominantly composed of African Americans, the backbone of the Democratic Party and a key Clinton constituency.

The Palmetto State is a must-win for Clinton. She can withstand early losses in Iowa and New Hampshire as long as she rebounds in South Carolina. As of now, Clinton holds about a 40-point lead in South Carolina polls.

But even if Clinton wins South Carolina decisively, the race will be far from over. The rising strength of the Sanders campaign reflects the fact that a battle for the soul of the Democratic Party is now under way.

Although Clinton’s institutional strength gives her a clear edge in that battle, it’s no longer a certainty that she will win the nomination. Sanders is mounting a far more serious challenge than anyone expected.

http://www.rawstory.com/2016/01/great-night-in-south-carolina-for-bernie-sanders-could-be-a-turning-point-in-the-2016-race/

Having followed eight presidential elections, I agree with this analysis (although I've now heard two different stories about which state is her "firewall", SC and NV.) It's that old expectations game again. Hillary is expected to win SC, so if she does win -- even decisively -- it's not necessarily game over for Bernie. I personally have high hopes that he can in fact pull off a victory there (in which case it probably WOULD be game over for Hillary) but it's comforting to realize it's not a must-win situation for him as it is for her.

---

(Edited to remove incorrect info about NV being after SC, not before.)

[Warren Stupidity]

1. The fact that the campaign has drawn the line at SC is an incredible turn of events

from just a few weeks ago when they considered her nomination inevitable. NH and Iowa are going to be not a fun day for the Clintons.

[Robbins]

2. Nevada comes before SC

MSM is ignoring Nevada for some strange reason.I think we know why.

[Cali_Democrat]

10. Why? nt

[Flying Squirrel]

13. Probably because

Bernie is catching up quickly there, and a victory would give him momentum going into SC (if they were to report it that way, of course).

[Flying Squirrel]

12. Thanks for the correction n/t

[onehandle]

3. The race is over on March 1st.

True a year ago.

True a month ago.

True today.

Hillary will be our next President.

[roguevalley]

8. For your sake, I hope so but history is not so friendly for that line of thought. HRC is a terrible

candidate and we want more than she is willing to give. Good luck though. I know what it means to want a candidate to win.

[enid602]

17. berniecare

Thanks to the debste last night, it''s no longrer about candidates. It will be a referendum on bernicare.

[snoringvoter]

9. Counting your chickens before they hatch?

All righty there.

I suggest investment in Kimberly-Clark.

[localroger]

15. Wasn't true in 2008

What Hillary's campaign missed in 2008, and seems to be missing again now, is that the Dem primary isn't winner take all by state. For this reason the very concept of a "firewall" is stupid -- it really doesn't make much difference whether you win any particular state by 5 points or lose it by 5 points, because that only makes a minor change in who gets how many delegates.

It was the failure of Hillary and anyone on her campaign to seem to understand this fundamental difference between the primary and general which really soured me on her in 2008. It reeks of a culture of buzzwordism and yes-men and either poor leadership or a really poor choice of advisors.

Super Tuesday was supposed to be Clinton's firewall in 2008 and her campaign basically floated while Obama picked up a solid majority and then still took 40% of the delegates on Super Tuesday, which did not turn out to be enough to overcome the lead they'd let Obama build. They do seem more aware this year that early action is necessary but the very idea that they think a state can be a "firewall" still shows a fundamental failure to undersrtand the math of how it works.

That bothers me a lot more than anything else about her campaign.

[leftofcool]

19. Yep. I am surprised Bernie is not already laying off staff.

[morningfog]

20. Clinton camp recognizes now that that is not true. They are planning for it going at least until

April or May. They are facing a very hard reality. This is not going to come easy for her, if at all.

[oasis]

25. A boisterous site until March1. After, you can hear a pin drop.

Ooooooooooboy. The sound of silence.

[Dawson Leery]

27. +1

[Still In Wisconsin]

28. Hillary is still a strong favorite to get the nomination. However, it is very unlikely

that she will EVER be President. The only way would be if Trump gets the nomination or runs as an independent. Otherwise, no way. Say the nominee is Rubio- she then loses Fla, probably Ohio and NC, maybe CO... game over. If they nominate Cruz he probably gets FL and NC maybe not CO. Lots of fundies in OH...

She generates no passion with young/ first time voters, progressives either hate her or are "meh." Not a winning formula.

Hillary is a weak general election candidate.

True a year ago.

True a month ago.

True today.

Hillary will never be President.

[jeff47]

4. Nevada is before SC.

As for NV being her true firewall, based on what? She's polling quite a bit worse in NV than in SC.

[Flying Squirrel]

11. Thanks for the correction n/t

[HubertHeaver]

5. If Hillary wins SC by <15 points

it goes in the emotional book as a loss.

[Flying Squirrel]

14. That's another thing in the expectations game that favors Bernie

A close victory over Bernie in SC won't do much for Hillary.

[HubertHeaver]

16. And the Hillary-backers set that high bar themselves.

[Voice for Peace]

6. It has occurred to me many times today

that if Obama were out of office, he would have been there, with Bernie et.al.

[Samantha]

18. Maybe not -- Bernie has made it very clear he opposes the TPP

and you probably know Obama really, really wants this passed, and he hopes it is a part of his legacy. I think he might be more "there" with Hillary. IMHO

Sam

PS Interesting that this has been missing in the debates, isn't it. I do not remember any commentator asking a question about the TPP.

[Voice for Peace]

24. TPP is on the mods forbidden list, it seems

[leftofcool]

21. No. Obama says he will not endorse/support anyone against gun control

Bernie voted against the Brady Bill 5 times. No way Obama endorses or campaigns for him.

[catnhatnh]

7. The goal posts are picking up velocity

I saw a post the other day that said Bernie had to win both Iowa and New Hampshire by at least 10% each for voters to consider it a victory...

[leftofcool]

22. This is true because those states are not winner take all.

The delegates will be split.

[catnhatnh]

23. So if he wins both

but only by 5% it will be seen as a loss???

[morningfog]

26. Only to Hillary's desperate supporters.

They are trembling at the very real prospect of a one-two(-three?) punch. Hillary has not planned for that outcome which is looking ever more likely.

[Still In Wisconsin]

29. I believe Madam Inevitable will soon crap her pantsuit...

if she has not already done so.

[Gothmog]

30. How will the Sanders campaign continue if it does not broaden its base?

The Sanders campaign is polling well in four states with 90+% white voting populations. These four states have less than half the number of delegates as Texas alone. I have a feeling that Super Tuesday will be a long day for the Sanders campaign

[marlakay]

31. Nevada is going strong lots of volunteers

I canvassed in Reno and Carson City, met lots of Bernie supporters, and some Hillary.

[IMG][/IMG]