"In search of a new balance of power in the Middle East"
In search of a new balance of power in the Middle East
#InsideYemen
Mustafa Salama
Monday 20 April 2015 22:05 BST
For a political settlement to be achieved in the Middle East no involved party can afford to refuse some degree of compromise
Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei took more than two weeks to shun the Saudi-led operation, Decisive Storm calling it “genocide”. This is in contrast to the initial statements made by Minister of Foreign Affairs of Iran, Mohamed Javad Zarif that were diplomatic and cautious, saying “We will spare no effort to contain the crisis in Yemen.”
Similarly, while the president of Turkey, Recep Erdogan, has scorned Iranian foreign policy and has supported Decisive Storm, it was not so long until he was visiting Tehran along with a delegation of ministers, encouraging a peaceful solution. Similarly, Pakistan's Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif initially gave the coalition his full support and participation. On the other hand, its parliament, issued a contradictory statement.
Increasingly, political statements flourish as various countries' positions in the region suffer from lack of consistency. But why?
American disengagement
A highlight of Middle East regional politics would clearly be American disengagement from the region.
Stephen Walt, Harvard professor of international relations, argues that the best way for the US to pursue its strategic goals in the Middle East is through “a realist balance-of-power policy, akin to the policy followed by the US from 1945 to 1990." That is, “The United States didn’t need to dominate the region itself, it just had to make sure no one else did.” A policy named by the author and other global strategists as “offshore balancing”.
Walt adds: “When we talk about US strategy in the Middle East, therefore, we need to start by recognising that the United States is in very good shape, and a lot of what happens in that part of the world may not matter very much to the country in the long run. Put differently, no matter what happens there, the United States can almost certainly adjust and adapt and be just fine.”
This is perhaps why the US has removed Iran and Hezbollah from its list of “terror threats” and why it was silent for a long time as Houthis advanced only to support Decisive Storm after its launch. Thus, it is understandable why many Arab commentators see Yemen as a “trap” for Saudi Arabia as Sultan Qaboos of Oman reportedly informed King Salman.
High tensions and high stakes
The Saudi-mustered coalition was certainly the product of its diplomacy and new proactive leadership under King Salman. Without a doubt, the coalition behind Decisive Storm took Iran by surprise. More, for it to include Arab states beyond the GCC and Iran’s nuclear neighbour, Pakistan, was even more surprising. However, it was hastily formed in response to the Houthi takeover of Yemen. But as more time was given to absorb the repercussions and potential risks of a ground-troop response, supporting countries started having cold feet.
Continued at:
http://www.middleeasteye.net/columns/search-new-balance-power-middle-east-818666000
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