U.S. Intelligence Agencies (All 16) See a Different World in 2030

[Ghost Dog]

New technologies, dwindling resources and explosive population growth in the next 18 years will alter the global balance of power and trigger radical economic and political changes at a speed unprecedented in modern history, says a new report by the U.S. intelligence community...

... Those major trends are the end of U.S. global dominance, the rising power of individuals against states, a rising middle class whose demands challenge governments, and a Gordian knot of water, food and energy shortages, according to the analysts.

“We are at a critical juncture in human history, which could lead to widely contrasting futures,” Council Chairman Christopher Kojm writes in the report...

... The future is “malleable,” according to Kojm. “Our effort is to encourage decision-makers, whether in government or outside, to think and plan for the long term so that negative futures do not occur and positive ones have a better chance of unfolding.” ...

... While technological advances, migrations, wars and other factors drove change in earlier periods, what sets the next quarter century apart is the way seven “tectonic shifts” are combining to drive change at an accelerating rate, said NIC Counselor Mathew Burrows, the report’s principle author. Those factors are: the growth of the middle class, wider access to new technologies, shifting economic power, aging populations, urbanization, growing demand for food and water, and U.S. energy independence

“It’s hard to wrap your mind around it, to tell you the truth; it’s just been happening at great velocity,” Burrows said in an interview with Bloomberg News discussing the 18-month research project.

/... http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-12-10/u-s-intelligence-agencies-see-a-different-world-in-2030.html

Full Report: National Intelligence Council's Global Trends 2030: http://globaltrends2030.files.wordpress.com/2012/11/global-trends-2030-november2012.pdf

- As regards the "rising power of individuals against states", while this may accurately characterise the ongoing politics of China and elsewhere, in the US and EU I suspect this must refer more to the rising power of large corporations and the 0.1%. - GD

x-posted in Environment & Energy: http://www.democraticunderground.com/112730651

[amandabeech]

1. Thanks for posting this, Ghost Dog.

It is incredibly interesting, and it will take me some time to digest it and the links.

Would you consider cross-posting this in GD and maybe somewhere in Environment and Energy?

This is incredibly important stuff, and since Foreign Affairs doesn't have a large following, it would engender more reads and debate in a high traffic environment.

[Ghost Dog]

2. Yes. Of course. Will do. Gently.

Also this: http://www.democraticunderground.com/10021959916