Climate Change Models May Underestimate Extinctions, Says UConn Biologist

[OKIsItJustMe]

http://today.uconn.edu/blog/2012/01/climate-change-models-may-underestimate-extinctions-says-uconn-biologist/

[font face=Times, Serif][font size=5]Climate Change Models May Underestimate Extinctions, Says UConn Biologist[/font]

January 4, 2012 | By: Christine Buckley, CLAS Today

[font size=3]Predictions of the loss of animal and plant diversity around the world are common under models of future climate change. But a new study shows that because these climate models don’t account for species competition and movement, they could grossly underestimate future extinctions.

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With coauthors Josh Tewksbury and Kimberly Sheldon of the University of Washington, Urban created a mathematical model that takes into account the varying rates of migration and the different intensities of competition seen in ecological communities. The goal was to predict just how successful species within these communities would be at shifting to completely new habitats.

Their results showed that animals and plants that can adjust to climate change will have a competitive advantage over those that don’t.

Animals with small geographic ranges, specific habitat needs and difficulty dispersing are likely to go extinct under climate change, their model shows. Further, these animals are more likely to be overrun by other species that can tolerate a wider range of habitats.

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http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rspb.2011.2367

[Nihil]

1. And, of course, ...

> Animals with small geographic ranges, specific habitat needs and difficulty dispersing
> are likely to go extinct under climate change, their model shows. Further, these animals
> are more likely to be overrun by other species that can tolerate a wider range of habitats.

... the most deadly species that tolerates an incredibly wide range of habitats is also the
one that puts up barriers to migration, decreases most other populations and isolates the
remaining ones.

Take a bow Mr. Tool Monkey!