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Sun Dec 9, 2012, 08:33 PM

 

Goldman Sachs predicts major US economic upturn beginning in 2013

I know everyone here hates Goldman but they know their shit.

Between above-trend growth, housing coming back, the efficacy of monetary policy, the turn in real interest rates, and a new shift in commodity pricing/constraints, it's clear that Goldman is calling for a huge year.


Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/goldmans-2013-forecast-2012-12#ixzz2Ebkuwx47

I post this because Teabaggers are predicting economic calamity due to the President's reelection and/or the fiscal cliff and higher taxes.

Sorry, Teabaggers. You will be wrong again.

Oh, and what is Goldman's top investment advice? Big US commercial banks. (btw, I predicted here that Bank of America would be the #1 largest gain in the Dow for 2012 and it is so far. Sorry, all that wailing about their "worthless" DERIVATIVES is a bunch of fucking nonsense).

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Reply Goldman Sachs predicts major US economic upturn beginning in 2013 (Original post)
banned from Kos Dec 2012 OP
Sherman A1 Dec 2012 #1
banned from Kos Dec 2012 #2
elleng Dec 2012 #3
CrazyOrangeCat Dec 2012 #4
MightyMopar Dec 2012 #5
elleng Dec 2012 #7
pscot Dec 2012 #10
Sherman A1 Dec 2012 #12
elleng Dec 2012 #6
DCBob Dec 2012 #8
pscot Dec 2012 #11
unblock Dec 2012 #9

Response to banned from Kos (Original post)

Sun Dec 9, 2012, 08:38 PM

1. Just my observation on the economy

There is a RR track next to my workplace and rail traffic is up significantly on that track. That in itself doesn't tell me much as it could be rerouted from other tracks under repair or whatever. What does tell me that there is significant investment are the numbers of shiny new tank cars rolling by. Not just a few, but whole long trains of them. That rolling stock is probably rather expensive, I would think.

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Response to Sherman A1 (Reply #1)

Sun Dec 9, 2012, 08:46 PM

2. Testing your theory I looked at the income statement for GBX

 

http://investing.money.msn.com/investments/stock-income-statement/?symbol=gbx

They are a pure-play railcar manufacturer.

Sales up over 230% since 2010.

You are observant.

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Response to Sherman A1 (Reply #1)

Sun Dec 9, 2012, 09:01 PM

3. Rail car loadings are leading indicators.

Good news, and no surprise, in addition to fact that Dem administrations help business, historically.

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Response to Sherman A1 (Reply #1)

Sun Dec 9, 2012, 09:01 PM

4. Yes

I live near both the Union Pacific and KC Southern. To my ears, both lines are much busier than in recent years.

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Response to CrazyOrangeCat (Reply #4)

Sun Dec 9, 2012, 09:05 PM

5. I'm glad they let us "muppets" in on this information

 

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Response to CrazyOrangeCat (Reply #4)

Sun Dec 9, 2012, 09:07 PM

7. Good to hear; important lines.

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Response to Sherman A1 (Reply #1)

Mon Dec 10, 2012, 01:30 AM

10. Rail car loadings are essentially flat

year to year. But well above recession lows.

http://www.bts.gov/press_releases/2012/bts053_12/html/bts053_12.html

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Response to pscot (Reply #10)

Mon Dec 10, 2012, 04:10 AM

12. Loadings may be flat, I don't know

again it was just a snapshot observation. Increased traffic overall and lots of new tank cars. Don't know if it really means anything, but I am hopeful. This track has been pretty quiet for years, a once a day Amtrak about 6 or 7 am and then usually one freight train in the late morning, that was usually cars filled with gravel and those cars were always very old & tired looking. Now I am seeing probably 5 or more trains each day with a variety of make ups, but newer cars and more engines as well.

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Response to banned from Kos (Original post)

Sun Dec 9, 2012, 09:06 PM

6. Good news is good news, from wherever it comes.

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Response to banned from Kos (Original post)

Sun Dec 9, 2012, 09:19 PM

8. Financial Times had a similar article a few days ago..

entitled "Forget the fiscal cliff: buy America".

http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/795347c2-3f97-11e2-b2ce-00144feabdc0.html

Sorry, you have to register to read the article. Here are few highlights..


The big reason for optimism is structural rather than cyclical. Short-term storms have obscured longer-term trends. These are on America’s side.

Some of these strengths speak for themselves. America’s military reach will be unrivalled for decades. It has a stable political system. The country’s demographic profile is significantly better than that of any potential rival. Washington sits at the centre of the world’s most powerful alliance system. Its intelligence capabilities are unmatched. The US has huge advantages in technological prowess and intellectual resources. Around the world it exerts a strong cultural draw. It has a global outlook.

The big gain, though, comes in the form of the competitive stimulus promised by abundant cheap gas. The age of offshoring is likely to give way to the era of onshoring. The US growth rate will rise and the current account deficit will shrink.

Europeans are already complaining that cheap US gas is encouraging a flight of energy intensive businesses across the Atlantic. How can, say, Europe’s chemicals producers – buying expensive Russian gas – compete with US rivals guaranteed access to cut-price feedstock.

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Response to DCBob (Reply #8)

Mon Dec 10, 2012, 01:32 AM

11. The future's so bright

we'll have to wear shades.

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Response to banned from Kos (Original post)

Sun Dec 9, 2012, 09:36 PM

9. i would say "major" in significance, but not in size.

i think we're definitely in for a good year, but there are big headwinds against huge growth.

one is that one way or another deficit spending will shrink, removing a stimulus to the economy.

another is that interest rates have nowhere to go but up, and surely will at any sign of strong growth, again removing a stimulus to the economy.

so a high 3% or low 4% gdp growth is not implausible, but anything more is quite remote.


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