Goldman Sachs predicts major US economic upturn beginning in 2013

[banned from Kos]

I know everyone here hates Goldman but they know their shit.

Between above-trend growth, housing coming back, the efficacy of monetary policy, the turn in real interest rates, and a new shift in commodity pricing/constraints, it's clear that Goldman is calling for a huge year.

Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/goldmans-2013-forecast-2012-12#ixzz2Ebkuwx47

I post this because Teabaggers are predicting economic calamity due to the President's reelection and/or the fiscal cliff and higher taxes.

Sorry, Teabaggers. You will be wrong again.

Oh, and what is Goldman's top investment advice? Big US commercial banks. (btw, I predicted here that Bank of America would be the #1 largest gain in the Dow for 2012 and it is so far. Sorry, all that wailing about their "worthless" DERIVATIVES is a bunch of fucking nonsense).

[Sherman A1]

1. Just my observation on the economy

There is a RR track next to my workplace and rail traffic is up significantly on that track. That in itself doesn't tell me much as it could be rerouted from other tracks under repair or whatever. What does tell me that there is significant investment are the numbers of shiny new tank cars rolling by. Not just a few, but whole long trains of them. That rolling stock is probably rather expensive, I would think.

[banned from Kos]

2. Testing your theory I looked at the income statement for GBX

http://investing.money.msn.com/investments/stock-income-statement/?symbol=gbx

They are a pure-play railcar manufacturer.

Sales up over 230% since 2010.

You are observant.

[elleng]

3. Rail car loadings are leading indicators.

Good news, and no surprise, in addition to fact that Dem administrations help business, historically.

[CrazyOrangeCat]

4. Yes

I live near both the Union Pacific and KC Southern. To my ears, both lines are much busier than in recent years.

[MightyMopar]

5. I'm glad they let us "muppets" in on this information

[elleng]

7. Good to hear; important lines.

[pscot]

10. Rail car loadings are essentially flat

year to year. But well above recession lows.

http://www.bts.gov/press_releases/2012/bts053_12/html/bts053_12.html

[Sherman A1]

12. Loadings may be flat, I don't know

again it was just a snapshot observation. Increased traffic overall and lots of new tank cars. Don't know if it really means anything, but I am hopeful. This track has been pretty quiet for years, a once a day Amtrak about 6 or 7 am and then usually one freight train in the late morning, that was usually cars filled with gravel and those cars were always very old & tired looking. Now I am seeing probably 5 or more trains each day with a variety of make ups, but newer cars and more engines as well.

[elleng]

6. Good news is good news, from wherever it comes.

[DCBob]

8. Financial Times had a similar article a few days ago..

entitled "Forget the fiscal cliff: buy America".

http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/795347c2-3f97-11e2-b2ce-00144feabdc0.html

Sorry, you have to register to read the article. Here are few highlights..


The big reason for optimism is structural rather than cyclical. Short-term storms have obscured longer-term trends. These are on America’s side.

Some of these strengths speak for themselves. America’s military reach will be unrivalled for decades. It has a stable political system. The country’s demographic profile is significantly better than that of any potential rival. Washington sits at the centre of the world’s most powerful alliance system. Its intelligence capabilities are unmatched. The US has huge advantages in technological prowess and intellectual resources. Around the world it exerts a strong cultural draw. It has a global outlook.

The big gain, though, comes in the form of the competitive stimulus promised by abundant cheap gas. The age of offshoring is likely to give way to the era of onshoring. The US growth rate will rise and the current account deficit will shrink.

Europeans are already complaining that cheap US gas is encouraging a flight of energy intensive businesses across the Atlantic. How can, say, Europe’s chemicals producers – buying expensive Russian gas – compete with US rivals guaranteed access to cut-price feedstock.

[pscot]

11. The future's so bright

we'll have to wear shades.

[unblock]

9. i would say "major" in significance, but not in size.

i think we're definitely in for a good year, but there are big headwinds against huge growth.

one is that one way or another deficit spending will shrink, removing a stimulus to the economy.

another is that interest rates have nowhere to go but up, and surely will at any sign of strong growth, again removing a stimulus to the economy.

so a high 3% or low 4% gdp growth is not implausible, but anything more is quite remote.