A Fool and Her Money is Soon Parted

[divineorder]

This discussion thread was locked as off-topic by grantcart (a host of the Barack Obama group).

These past few days, people are getting robo-calls asking people to sign a petition asking for Hillary to run this year. Ten reasons why it's such a fail:

She's not running, hasn't even hinted at running. How can you run without at least resigning from her job at State? She knows well what she has to do if she wants to run, and isn't doing it. She hasn't even hinted at a resignation. She can hardly run without a resignation: Obama would be justified not trusting her if she's running against him, and would have a legitimate concern about the amount of time and her motivation for doing the job. Furthermore, she is loyal to a fault: I would hardly think she would leave Obama without a Secretary of State during a tough re-election race, with no one prepared to take over during international crises. Someone in the State Department would have been prepared to rise and do an interim job.
Robocalls during the one week of the year that people are really busy, out, or getting in the holiday spirit? I used to work surveys, and we would take the last 2 weeks of the year off for the holiday. Great way to make supporters, robo-call people. This is hardly going to make anyone, let alone independents who could vote in some primaries happy. I suspect the robo-calls are being done now because they are cheap to do: such companies have little business during this time of year. Not to mention that ugly website that is not ready for even late-night television.
Several filing deadlines have already passed, and several more will pass in the next month. Obama has already organized Iowa and is working on New Hampshire. Both filing dates have passed.
Where's the money coming from? I bet several people, believing that the Presidential nomination was a safely done deal, maxed out their contributions there already, and are planning to spend the money on Congressional seats that are winnable. Obama is probably alread upwards of $100 million in barely-spent campaign cash. Such a race would start off having to rapidly, massively fundraise in order to get started, which makes Obama's advantage Primary challengers to sitting Presidents never win the nomination, and even if she pulled off a miracle, the party would be too divided to win the General.
What case can she give to persuade the minority vote to nominate her instead of Obama? Obama has been a good president in all respects, a source of pride and a defense against the Republican agenda. Hillary would have to make promises against a real record of accomplishment.
There's no groundswell of Democratic discontent for her to work with. Obama's approval among Democrats is 81%, a slam dunk in politics.
I think she likes her privacy. After decades of being a public pinata, she doesn't have to suffer that anymore. Secretary of State doesn't get the same amount of scrutiny as President, and not as much aggravation.
No support among elected officials. Obama clearly won't embarass them as they strive for re-election. Bill Clinton was always a concern due to his wandering ways, and there was always a fear that something truly scandalous would come out during the General.
While Democrats like Hillary, a rematch would be disasterous for her.
IF she still has hopes for some sort of Presidential run, why do a no-hope primary challenge when she can wait unitl 2016 after a successful term as Secretary of State. She would have a lot of foreign policy experience, the good will of many Democrats, and ample time tor all the needed things for a real campaign.

[zipplewrath]

1. A few questions

1) Who's behind the calls? There are organizations who generate "sucker lists" and sell them for high dollars because they've identified people who are easily separated from their money over political causes.

2) Who are the targets? Really, as you allude, anyone particularly involved this early in election politics long ago made their commitments. So who are they calling?

3) What could they hope to accomplish? As you outline, there's virtually no way for her to even encourage such a move, much less actually executed one. This ground would have to have been lain long ago. So anyone "legitimately" exploring this possibility must have some goals not explicitly stated.


I'm betting it's folks looking for sucker lists. It could also be some attempt to influence the GOP primary by getting folks worked up by a threat of a Hillary candidacy. Mitt would probably benefit most from this since it would encourage the concept of "the candidate best able to beat a democrat". Lastly, I'd guess it is someone trying to gage the possibility of a third party candidacy and where the opportunity exists accross the political spectrum for such a candidacy. So you call up and ask folks to sign petitions for various unannounced candidates and see where the disenfrachised voters are.

[divineorder]

2. Given the amateurish nature of the website

I think it's a PUMA (s)with a grudge, helped by some Republican money. I mean, robocalls all over the country aren't cheap at anytime, even during the week before Christmas when respondants are unavailable, and I imagine a company is probably hurting for clients. The website is ugly and lacking in the kind of structure needed for rapid response. And what kind of rapid response could there be? There's no structure to give money. People who want to vote in either Iowa or NH would have had to already been registered, so new voters can't enter into the fray.

Indeed, the whole effort smacks of both political ignorance and naivete. Robocalls to places like New York and California, places that are probably both true-blue and come later in the cycle, show that there is no political strategist but a company probably exploiting a well-off and naive PUMA. The whole thing smacks of self-pity that Hillary didn't win against Obama. But why the rage and hurt? It's the hope of a female President named Hillary lost for them. They feel that Hillary was entitled to the White House and that Obama mugged her out of her appointed destiny.

For these people, a woman President is about self-affirmation, not about policies and political skill. It's not even about what Hillary can have or what she wants. It's clear that Hillary is happy doing what she does now. If she wasn't she could have resigned without much of a problem. But these people can't let her alone, but still try to get her to primary a sitting President popular with his own party.

[grantcart]

3. Locking this thread

Could be discussed in GD or the Hillary Clinton Group but doesn't fit the Barack Obama Group.

Thanks for your understanding.