(A PREDICTION): If Donald Trump is the nominee, he will get no more than 35 percent of the vote.

[Stuart G]

I still think that 30% is right, but I am going to 35 to include all Republican voters,
Donald Trump is the single most evil candidate the Republicans will have ever nominated. He will NOT win, he is 'EVIL'... and everyone knows it. In my opinion it is that simple.

[marble falls]

1. "IF". And his replacement, Mitt Romeny will do no better.

[Wednesdays]

38. Mitt will never again be nominee

The MAGAts all hate him, and they rule the party now.

[marble falls]

44. The MAGAts are in their descendancy. Mitt is as close to a viable "moderate" candidate as it gets in the GOP ...

... right now. The fact that Democrats have prevented MT Greene from challenging Johnson and replacing him shows MAGA is dying on the vine.

[RandySF]

2. You have more faith in the American people than I do.

[ancianita]

14. You don't have faith that the 7,000,000 more who voted for Biden will show up? Or believe that youth and women in

battlegrounds won't show up? Seriously?

[Tree Lady]

16. I keep hearing that young men

are turning more conservative partly because they don't have girlfriends and are getting caught up in right thinking online because of not having sex. I wonder if there is any truth to that.

One of my grandsons 18 is leaning republican and the other 27 is already that way. Both are into some weird financial banking beliefs they read online.

Trying to talk to them its like I am 100 and not in their world view. Both are introverts and no girls in their life.

[RandySF]

17. I don't think it's just about sex.

They seem lost. Period.

[Tree Lady]

19. I agree, I am closer to the older one

but I can't seem to reach him. He's pretty depressed too feels like no way he will be able to afford being on his own. Stays with my ex his grandfather. Has a hard time staying at a job.

I think kids are expecting a lot from employment now.

[brush]

31. There are jobs out there. Unemployment is at a 50-year low...

due to Biden/Dem policies/initiative/infrastructure jobs. What's up with your grandsons?

Too much cocooning on social media? Young people often meet the opposite sex at school or work. Don't they do either?

For centuries, decades our society has been geared to favor white men over women, POCs, LGBTQ+ folks etc., I don't get it. White males have advantages in the job market, which has traditionally led to advantages with women, or same sex, if so desired.

[Ontheboundry]

30. I have an 18 year old son

His friends were over once and I overheard a discussion.on politics

They were almost all not just leaning right, some were straight up MAGA and all these kids are college kids but one, and he is goig air force first to avoid student debt.

So, I didn't want to argue but asked my son later and he answered quickly "everyone tells them that everything is their fault, so they are turning to the only place they can".

Sort of left me depressed. Even if not true, they feel it's true

Note, not all these boys are white , and as far as their sexuality I 'think' they were all straight or want to be

[no_hypocrisy]

33. More pedestrian than that. TSF has more entertainment value.

To a significant demographic, Trump is more interesting to watch and listen to than Joe Biden. They want Trump back so there's something "good" to watch on television.

Wish I were wrong.

[Silent Type]

3. In a normal/just world, maybe. Too much can happen before election for my confidence.

[Joinfortmill]

4. Yup, he's done. Not gone yet, but done.

[rso]

5. RSO

I also think he’ll lose, though some of the polls make me a bit nervous.

[LonePirate]

6. I don't share your optimism. Repubs are supercharged to vote for him. Most of the Haley voters will vote R.

Dems, as improbable as it sounds, are somehow losing some Black and Hispanic voters to him. Young voters are exceptionally disillusioned due to student loans, Israel-Gaza, housing. Plus there is the specter of inflation every time someone goes to grocery shopping. People are not eager to vote Dem this year and the final results are going to be much closer than in 2020. We could even lose the EC again as much of a nightmare as that will be.

[ancianita]

11. This far out, unless you link something, I'm not buying it at all. That's corporate polling hype to spread FUD.

[The_REAL_Ecumenist]

24. been "mostly" black most of my life and I know ALL KINDS of people from the diaspora, LATINOS & Asians...

trust me, of the literally HUNDREDS of people of color I know, ONLY one, (the person I laughingly refer to as my brother) voted for republy-uglies. The idiot says it's because EVERY ELSE he works with , (he works as a "financial trader&quot does. Did I tell you he's an idiot?

[doc03]

7. "IF" What have I missed, is there another nominee? I hope you are right but 35% of the

vote, really?

[HUAJIAO]

8. I must respectfully disagree. There is a very good chance trump could win.

[ancianita]

12. Respectfully disagree with your disagreement. Go ahead. Make your case. Link your sources. Show us his path to electoral

victory.

[HUAJIAO]

20. Well, Stuart G didn't provide any links, sources, which is fine.

He's expressing his opinion/gut feeling. So am I.

I get my info by reading just about everything pertinent on DU as well as a number of other sources- albeit mostly liberal sources
I put it all together and form an opinion.

[ancianita]

21. Okay, fine. But I've posted voting numbers with links. So I go with his claim because the numbers support his claim.

It's only fair that if you or others here disagree with him, you'd at least give one link to back up that tsf will win.
No one on DU has linked anything but corporate media polls around 6-8 months out. We're now 7 months out. I don't see how anyone can argue with him, given all the special election, public referenda and state trifecta wins we've had since 2018.

[rubbersole]

23. There's the raw truth...

...all elections since 2018 have favored Dems or Dem causes. Polls have been consistently wrong for 5 years. They're virtually meaningless. Kansas on abortion access. Kansas. The hand wringing is unnecessary. But still get everyone you can to vote. Democracy will survive.

[ancianita]

9. Works for ME, Stuart!

I don't think you're too far off at all!

[Polybius]

28. Only about 11 points off n/t

[W T F]

10. You're right, however, It's not the popular vote that determines the winner, it's the electoral college.

[ancianita]

13. So what's tsf's electoral path to victory? Pray tell.

Last edited Mon Apr 29, 2024, 01:10 AM - Edit history (1)

[Polybius]

29. GA, MI, NV, & maybe PA or WI

That would do it, although I don't think (at this point) Trump will win. But he has a path.

[mopinko]

34. there's no way he takes mi.

the whole govt there now is dem majority, and the mi gqp is in shambles.
he’s not taking wi or pa either. 22 was a blue wave there. that’s not gonna recede.

[Polybius]

42. I'm just pointing out the path

I doubt he wins PA, but MI is another story. Democrats who are Muslim may stay home.

[cstanleytech]

15. More like 43-46% though that depends on how many Trump cultists show up to actually vote.

[CloudWatcher]

18. I agree, but ...

I worry more about Coup Attempt Take 2. Unless the vote is absolutely crushing and obvious they'll assume they've been cheated -- again. Trump and Fox News have done more damage to our country than Putin could possibly have imagined.

[ancianita]

26. Do you really think they can even successfully march on DC at the end of this year? Really?

It's good to worry. But they've always felt cheated. They don't care about governing, just their theocratic/authoritarian power.
Have some faith in Biden. If they lose, they won't obstruct the peaceful transfer of power this time.
This time there won't be a 2.0 except through legislative shenanigans and the courts.
No one's going to let them get close to Congress this time.

[mopinko]

35. holding the wh and taking it back- 2 very, very different things.

there’s no fucking way he gets joe out of there unless he actually wins. which he sure as hell wont.

[drray23]

37. Coup no2 would be an utter failure.

This time president Biden is at the white house. He won't let it happen like Trump did. The Capitol will be secured and if there is an hint of anything it will be promptly shutdown.

[SunSeeker]

22. From your lips to God's ears. nt

[Pototan]

25. Well, judging by the world today

God's not doing too much listening.

I remember a religious friend once said to me, "The Lord answers every prayer. Unfortunately, more often than not, the answer is 'NO'"

[SunSeeker]

45. LOL Yup. nt

[Polybius]

27. Lol 35%?

He'll get at least 46%. I am bookmarking this. When I respond back in November, please respond to my "That one didn't age quite so well" comment.

[Ontheboundry]

39. I agree

46 seems the low end tbh rn

[Doodley]

32. It's all about turnout and intensity on the margins. Who can fire-up more voters?

[mopinko]

36. 40% is absolute tops.

states w abortion referenda will bring out the faithful, but in every state so far, they’ve lost roughly 60-40.
but the full ticket? i agree, 30-35 is the best they will do.

[Polybius]

43. Only way Trump gets 30-35 is if Biden gets 35-40

1) There's no way that Biden can win by 20 when even LBJ '64 and Reagan '84 didn't do it.
2) No way 3rd Party's do well enough to reduce anyone to the mid-30's.

[lark]

40. I like your prediction, but will it matter if he starts a civil war?

He will not accept the loss easily, we all know that for sure. He will fight it hard and he could win if SCOTUS illegally backs him and we know this is extremely possible. What would happen then? Yes, I am a worrier and last week's horrible SCOTUS hearing just reinforced the idea that fascism is being promoted hard by the right wing and will do anything to gain total ascendancy.

[LetMyPeopleVote]

41. I hope that you are right but we still need to work on GOTV for President Biden