WMC's new Scott Walker ad: Misleading, bizarre, yet revealing
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With election season nowhere in sight, I was shocked to see the most recent Wisconsin Manufacturers and Commerce (WMC) ad in support of Governor Walker. As the graphics rolled across the screen, my amazement at the ad's existence turned into disgust. As someone who actively follows the release of state by state economic data from the Philadelphia Branch of the Federal Reserve, I was shocked to see anyone supporting Governor Walker citing their figures - let alone using them in an attempt to highlight Wisconsin's economic performance. So let's take a step back and digest what numbers WMC is using to justify rolling out the 'Mission Accomplished' banner nearly 14 months before Election Day.
Each month, the Philadelphia Branch of the Federal Reserve publishes a set of economic indicators, the coincident index and the leading index. The coincident index is created using a weighted formula that incorporates each state's nonfarm payroll employment, the average hours worked in manufacturing, the unemployment rate, and wage and salary disbursements; with the end result being pegged to the trend of the state's gross domestic product. The leading index is a six-month projection of the potential change in a state's coincident index that is calculated using additional state-specific variables.
So where does this leave Wisconsin? The coincident index puts Wisconsin's economy at 41st in the nation and trailing the national figure by over 8%. But here's where the rubber meets the road: WMC's figure isn't incorrect. It is, however, incredibly misrepresentative of what the coincident index publication highlights - change over the previous month. So, indeed, Wisconsin's coincident index growth for the month of July 2013 was the second largest growth in the US. But that growth is still relative to a something and it just so happens that the something in question is the index rating our economy at 41st in the nation.
Sadder yet, if you examine the recent history of the coincident index, you find a troubling trend for Wisconsin. According to the coincident index, Wisconsin has not yet fully recovered from the economic collapse of 2008. Meaning, our 2008 figures are larger than those being compiled for 2013. And during this recovery period, while other Midwestern states and the nation as a whole have recovered and grown, Wisconsin has recovered at a much slower rate and still has not bested its 2008 performance.
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There's just one more paragraph.
http://www.wisopinion.com/index.iml?mdl=article.mdl&article=51446
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