Time: Putin Calls Western Bluff With Humanitarian Convoy Stunt

[Purveyor]

Simon Shuster Aug. 12, 2014

The trucks heading to the border with eastern Ukraine will test the West's assumption that Russia is always up to something nasty

Simon Shuster Aug. 12, 2014

When the Russian convoy of nearly 300 trucks departed from a military base near Moscow on Tuesday morning and headed toward the border with Ukraine, they were kitted out to look as benevolent as possible. All of them were painted in pristine white, and matching tarpaulin was stretched over their cargo. As they prepared to head out, a priest went around and sprinkled their engines with holy water as television cameras rolled. But the nicest touch was applied to the drivers, whose identical knee-high shorts and khaki caps made them look like postal deliverymen.

The show was not entirely convincing. After all of Russia’s efforts to stoke the conflict in eastern Ukraine since it began in March – including supplying the separatist militias fighting the Ukrainian military with weapons and volunteers – it was hard for Ukraine to take seriously Russia’s claim that these trucks were carrying nothing more dangerous than baby food and power generators. Nor did the West give Moscow the benefit of the doubt. Before the trucks were even loaded, let alone inspected, the U.S. and its allies warned that the convoy was a wolf in sheep’s clothing, and the government in Kiev pledged on Tuesday that it would not be allowed to pass.

Both reactions could backfire. The goal of this convoy, though likely a lot more complicated than simple humanitarian aid, has more to do with domestic Russian politics than military strategy. Between June and July, the proportion of Russians who support a military incursion in eastern Ukraine has dropped from 40% to 26%, according to the independent Levada Center polling agency. But support for humanitarian aid to the region has meanwhile remained at around to 90% since May. “The Kremlin does not usually ignore this kind of consensus,” says Lev Gudkov, the director of the Levada Center. So President Vladimir Putin at least had to attempt a humanitarian mission.

And that’s likely all there is to the convoy, says Fyodor Lukyanov, a prominent foreign policy expert in Moscow. Putin hasn’t put his military aims aside, but knows that a phony aid convoy would be a poor way of achieving them. “It just wouldn’t make any sense,” he says. “Why would you mount such a grandiose and public spectacle with these trucks if you wanted to smuggle in weapons or start a war?”

more...

http://time.com/3105108/putin-russia-ukraine-convoy-humanitarian/

[Fred Sanders]

1. Incredible how the American media thinks Kiev's words are gospel truth and Moscow is always the

devil with forked tongue, even more incredible is all the folks droning in agreement it must be so.

The American media has not uniformly lied to the nation before and got it into a major war on false pretences has it?

WELL, HAS IT?

[TwilightGardener]

2. Russia is the clear aggressor. That's why.

[newfie11]

3. +++++++++++++++++++++++++

My thought exactly. I grew up listening to how big bad USSR was going to drop a nuke at anytime.
In comparing Russia vs USA since 1960's I'm thinking my USA has/is causing more wars/non wars resulting in killing people.

We are far from innocent in interfering with the stability of other nations.
Many countries in Central/South America owe their poverty to our manipulations not to mention the deaths.

Then there Vietnam where we had to save Vietnam from the Vietnamese.

There's much more.
Maybe before throwing stones we should clean up our act at home.

[Igel]

4. It may still be that the West has called Putin's bluff.

http://www.novorosinform.org/news/id/6027
The report is that the convoy has changed course towards Ivarino. This echoes reports in the Ukr media and social media.


The earlier Ukrainian reports were that the Red Cross had rushed to set things up and hangar space, vehicles, etc., had been set up to easily inspect and transship the cargo, even though the ICRC hadn't actually approved this particular aid mission yet because it had yet to evaluate needs and capacity on the ground in various places. The OSCE had also said it would start providing help--which is strange, since Lavrov had said that the OSCE was riding along with the convoy.

The ICRC had yet, as of about 8 am Houston time (4 PM Ukraine time) not received the information they had requested about the contents of the convoy. Lavrov said they'd provided it. The ICRC and local Red Cross also said they'd not even been told when to expect the convoy.

The ICRC and local Red Cross has said that it finds any crossing of the Russian convoy into Ukraine through a border crossing not controlled by the Ukrainian government to be unacceptable. It also said very clearly that the aid should be delivered directly to civilians and not to the rebels. This is, strictly speaking, at odds with what Lavrov has said--that it was intended for "Luhans'k and Donets'k". One is very specific; the other is more general. Lavrov has had a lot of times to agree with the ICRC and has insisted on his terminology, which is, strictly speaking, grounds for assuming that he means something different from what the ICRC has said. (The military has to eat, after all; and in the past humanitarian aid clearly labelled and left in abandoned rebel warehouses has included night vision goggles and uniforms, and even ammo.)

The Russian and rebel media are just reporting quotes that "no convoy would be allowed into Ukraine", more or less. The bit about "inspecting and transshipping" was deleted from every source I looked at. Having reported that the convoy had the ICRC's imprimatur, the Russian and rebel media are still reporting that the imprimatur was given.

The Ukrainian government and social media have said that the convoy got to around Belgorod, some 20 miles from the border before turning. Another soc-media source said it had reached Rostov oblast', which is the Russian "province" just east of the Luhans'k oblast's eastern border with Russia (the Ukrainian province's eastern border runs more or less north-south, the northern border runs W-NE).

We'll leave aside the strange report http://informator.lg.ua/?p=21296, in which it's said a tank has been spotted that was painted all white, numerous pieces of rebel armor have started to sport white markings and flags with their crews wearing white bandages (the article's title is "Another 'humanitarian' column--142 pieces of military equipment".

And the equally strange report http://informator.lg.ua/?p=21220 . "Humanitarian 'apple juice' from Russia breaths through holes". The contents of this, apart from the photo, also say that one report has the convoy accompanied by armored fighting vehicles and in one case a driver that stepped out for a smoke near a case of "evaporated milk" was beaten by soldiers accompanying the convoy. (You're supposed to ask the question, "What kind of 'evaporated milk' reacts badly if there's some sort of open flame nearby?" The answer is supposed to be 'none, but there are other things that react very badly, many of which have military uses.')

Informator often relies on local sources. It's the kind of thing that funnels social-media and grass-roots "finds" to a wider audience. There are so many Ukrainian news sources it's scary. They range from local, regional, to national; amateurish, serious amateur, to professional; non-profit, private but donation funded, for-profit. So yesterday Informator reported on natural gas being turned off in some areas of Luhans'k. Today the story snuck into the national news, with additional vetting by paid reporters. Of course, that kind of thing often gives the lie to what's officially said by official spokesfolk or media, but still has to be viewed with a bit of critical thinking.

Informator also reported that in some towns in rebel-held territory using phones to take pictures or record videos will be considered spying and dealt with as treason. (For good reason. In WWII it would have; now Ukrainians are used to recording and snapping pictures and posting them constantly. Meaning that a lot of Ukrainian military and rebel "secrets" get posted. Armored convoys, pictures of wounded. Last week there was a spate of competing info-wars kind of thing, with rebels tracking down pictures of Ukrainian soldiers photographed with rebel war dead and the Ukrainian social media posting pictures of the rebels posing with Ukrainian war dead.)

[Fred Sanders]

5. Do people really think Russia needs these trucks to get arms into Eastern Ukraine.....really?

Good thing they forgot about the remote border areas.....and that rebels control uncontrolled crossings....good thing Russian military fools are so stupid.

Geography is your friend, common sense is your ally.