Time: China's Stake in a Stable North Korea
By AUSTIN RAMZY / BEIJING | Time.com – 51 mins ago
The death of North Korean leader Kim Jong Il on Dec. 17 is expected to cause concern within China, its massive neighbor and only major ally. While Kim was known to be frail, particularly after a 2008 stroke, his condition had appeared to stabilize and Chinese leaders were under the impression that he "was in better health than was the case," says Stephanie Kleine-Ahlbrandt, Northeast Asia project director for the International Crisis Group says. "His death is very unexpected, and they will be understandably alarmed."
Of particular concern to China is whether Kim's death will make North Korea, long a source of instability in the region, even more unpredictable. "No one should say the possibility will be high for North Korea to implode, but no one can neglect the potential risk of that sort of domestic tension and unrest," says Zhu Feng, an international-relations scholar at Peking University. The transition to the deceased dictator's appointed heir, third son Kim Jong Un, also comes in a year when China is expected to carry out its own, long-planned change of top leaders, adding to the concerns in Beijing. "The Chinese have always prioritized stability and particularly at this moment want nothing to interfere with their own preparations for leadership transition," says Kleine-Ahlbrandt. (See photos of Pyongyang residents mourning the dear leader.)
The pressure stems from China's unique relationship with North Korea. It is the North's largest provider of food aid, a key trading partner and a weapons supplier for its military. China also maintains a rigorous control of its border with the North, sending back defectors. It considers them "economic migrants," and to help stem the flow it has tried to push Pyongyang to adopt economic reforms of the sort that helped China grow into the world's second largest economy. (Kim Jong Il always remained wary of the threats to his authority that could arise from a market economy, however, and backed away from any significant reform.)
The help isn't limited to the domestic sphere. By hosting the long-running six-party talks on North Korean denuclearization, Beijing even facilitates North Korea's dealings with other nations. That's a job it will have to focus on intensely during the North Korean leadership transition. "Beijing has a key role to play because it has the best channels politically and militarily with Pyongyang," says John Delury, an assistant professor at Yonsei University's Graduate School of International Studies in South Korea. "There's a lot of weight on their shoulders because, for the time being, they are the new North Korean leadership's door to outside world." (Read "Inside Kim Jong Il's Eerie Authoritarian World."
http://news.yahoo.com/chinas-stake-stable-north-korea-084500670.html
