David Plouffe: 100% Chance of Clinton Victory

[misterhighwasted]

http://www.hillaryhq.com/2016/09/david-plouffe-100-chance-of-clinton.html?m=1

David Plouffe, the longtime Democratic strategist behind Barack Obama's 2008 landslide and current informal adviser to the Clinton campaign, has a few words for anyone fretting about the day-to-day ups and downs of public polling. And he's clearly in the know.


Here are some highlights from his must-read interview with Greg Sargent of the Washington Post:

DAVID PLOUFFE:
Some polls closely capture where the race stands. But they’re very incomplete. The Clinton campaign is doing large samples for modeling surveys of everybody on the voter file. So you have a very good understanding of how you believe 100 percent of the electorate will be allocated on election day.

When you look at how 100 percent of the vote is likely to be allocated in Florida, I get very optimistic….I can get Donald Trump to within two or three in Pennsylvania, but I can’t get him to a win number. The same is true in Virginia and Colorado. I know everybody goes crazy about the latest Cheetos poll, but I feel very confident about both New Hampshire and Florida. So that puts her over 300 [in the electoral college]. Trump has to pull off a miracle in the electoral college.

That's pretty confident-sounding. But there's more:

PLUM LINE: Why do you say you can’t get him there numerically in Pennsylvania?

PLOUFFE: In Pennsylvania, she’s going to come out of the southeastern part of the state — Philadelphia and the surrounding suburbs — with a margin of probably 500,000. Could be more. There just aren’t enough votes in the rest of the state to make that up. This simple fact is why most smart Republicans will tell you: they can get Pennsylvania close, but in the electoral college, close doesn’t mean anything.

PLUM LINE: Colorado?

PLOUFFE: It’s a state where the Hispanic vote is of great importance. She’s probably going to win it by more than we did. There are a lot of college educated suburban swing voters who have swung between the parties through the years. The Denver suburbs, I think she’ll win them probably by more than we won them in 2012. The Latino margins she’ll rack up — and her over-performance with swing suburban women and even men — that’s why Colorado and Virginia are so tough for him.

PLUM LINE: Florida?

PLOUFFE: I think she’ll do well in the suburban I-4 corridor. I think she’ll do better with Cuban voters than we did. She’ll do very well with the Puerto Rican and Columbian vote. She might even over-perform us a little bit in the panhandle. My understanding is the campaign feels very confident about their own numbers.
But wait, there's even more!

On today's Morning Joe, Plouffe held firm on a "crazy" prediction:
Watch the full Morning Joe (interview at link)

The point of all this isn't "relax, Hillary's got this" but rather "Hillary wins if we volunteer, donate and vote". We need the base fired up and everyone running at full speed all the way through the final election day in order for the dream to become a reality.

In other words, as always, Keep calm and Hillary on.
https://img.washingtonpost.com/wp-apps/imrs.php?src=

Team Hillary 2016 has done the heavy lifting. It's up to the people who support her to go and vote.
GOTV for HILLARY

[Farmgirl1961]

1. I don't know what I love more...

his sense of optimism or having him say "Cheetos poll"

[misterhighwasted]

3. Haa..Same here. It was a humorous call out from a seemingly so-serious man

This is far more believable than the horserace-for-profit we have been fed by the media.

Feels much better hearing this explaination from a man like Plouffe.
We're going to be just fine. Keep the faith & GOTV for Hillary.

[ailsagirl]

9. "Cheetos poll"

Thanks for posting!

[Botany]

2. He speaks the truth

In 2012 a post election study by the GOP showed they needed better support w/:

1) Hispanics

b) African Americans

iii) Women

In 2016 they picked Trump and then they picked Pence for V.P. who is toxic to the GLBT vote.

[misterhighwasted]

5. Armed with these 2012 stats, it drove the direction of her campaign from the beginning..

Smarter & better by far.

[Botany]

6. I am from OH and I don't see where they are getting OH all that will go for Trump crap

Trump has next to nothing as far as a boots on the ground campaign here, the Governor (Kasich)
hates Trump, and Obama has a high approval rating here too.

BTW I am signing up to election protection work in OH again this year. Please try to pull some
crap where I will be working.

[misterhighwasted]

7. Good news from someone actually in Ohio. Your election day attention is a very valuable contribution

I believe the morning of Nov 9th will show the polling was dead wrong all along.

Can't wait for the trumpkin's jaws to drop.

Get every Hillary supporter you know to Vote.
I'm signed on to be giving rides all day...we can do this !!

[LenaBaby61]

4. Nothing is EVER 100% in this life...

However, I feel what he's saying and feeling and about the power of positive thinking--and GETTING OUT THE VOTE!!!

[Cracklin Charlie]

8. Hillary on!

Totally stealing that!

And thanks for the link...smart folks rule!

[sheshe2]

10. I'll stick with Plouffe!

Thank you mister.

[misterhighwasted]

11. Cheers Sheshe! Hugs to Hillary tonight!

There's nothing more this woman needs to do or say that she hasn't already done or said.
The rest is up to her millions of voters.
GET OUT THE VOTE!!

[sheshe2]

12. Back at ya, mister!

Looking forward to tonight.

[SunSeeker]

13. K & R

[misterhighwasted]

14. Hello SunSeeker!

[SunSeeker]

15. Just pulled out the shirt I'm wearing tomorrow:

[misterhighwasted]

16. Wear that shirt with pride & a smile my friend

Lol..its pretty cool!