Breaking: WHO: Ebola virus spreading exponentially in Liberia, many thousands of cases expected

[Hissyspit]

Last edited Mon Sep 8, 2014, 04:17 PM - Edit history (1)

Source: Reuters

@BreakingNews: WHO: Ebola virus spreading exponentially in Liberia, many thousands of cases expected in coming 3 weeks - @Reuters http://t.co/m1ka1FfjtN/s/51Xr

Ebola spreads exponentially in Liberia, many more cases soon : WHO

By Stephanie Nebehay and Umaru Fofana
GENEVA/FREETOWN | Mon Sep 8, 2014 4:13pm EDT

By Stephanie Nebehay and Umaru Fofana

GENEVA/FREETOWN (Reuters) - Liberia, the country worst hit by West Africa's Ebola epidemic, should see thousands of new cases in coming weeks as the virus spreads exponentially, the World Health Organization (WHO) said on Monday.

The epidemic, the worst since the disease was discovered in 1976, has killed some 2,100 people in Guinea, Sierra Leone, Liberia and Nigeria and has also spread to Senegal.

The WHO believes it will take six to nine months to contain and may infect up to 20,000 people. In Liberia, the disease has already killed 1,089 people - more than half of all deaths reported since March in this regional epidemic.

"Transmission of the Ebola virus in Liberia is already intense and the number of new cases is increasing exponentially," the U.N. agency said in a statement. "The number of new cases is moving far faster than the capacity to manage them in Ebola-specific treatment centers."

Read more: http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSKBN0H324U20140908

[still_one]

1. I thought they were saying it is under control. Wow

[unblock]

2. all i kept hearing was the window for getting it under control was closing....

[TwilightGardener]

3. The US military is being called to help (airlift and logistics)--getting bad.

[Avalux]

4. They were predicting they'd have it under control...

A lot of factors come into play here. I think the WHO didn't anticipated the extent of the epidemic, or had/have sufficient resources to effectively contain it. It's spreading in highly populated areas where the people are ignorant about how Ebola is transmitted. The episode of a clinic being broken into by villagers to 'rescue' their family members is an example.

There hasn't been evidence thus far of an Ebola mutation that would allow airborne transmission. On a global scale, it's highly unlikely it could grow into a pandemic unless that were to happen.

[heaven05]

6. I hope you know what you're talking about

[Avalux]

14. The general population in developed countries doesn't need to worry.

This epidemic should remain where it is. However as I stated in a post below, the longer it's allowed to spread, the more of an opportunity it has to mutate into a form that can be transmitted through the air. We don't know if it will, but we do know that viruses are living organisms and will adapt to survive. That's why it's so important to stop it asap.

[heaven05]

15. one thing for sure

we'll see

[Mojorabbit]

39. I don't think there is a hospital

In this country that could handle
An influx of ebola patients though. Would
need a lot of govt support and still be dicey if
It broke out in multiple cities. I was in the hospital a few months ago and had to wait in a holding area till the next day for a bed. JMO

[another_liberal]

7. It seems to be doing quite well for itself without being airborne . . .

Remember that the disease we call AIDS is not airborne either; for that matter, neither is Herpes.

[starroute]

12. But Ebola is a lot more quickly fatal

That's one thing that can keep a disease from becoming pandemic and cause outbreaks to be self-contained.

As I recall, when syphillis first became widespread in Europe in the early 1500s, it killed people very quickly. It was only when it mutated into a form that could hang on for years that it settled in to become a long-term scourge.

[another_liberal]

38. Whatever slows it down is good . . .

Though "quickly fatal" is cold comfort at best.

[Nay]

8. I agree -- the chances of a worldwide epidemic, at least in 1st world

countries, is very low. It is not transmitted through the air, so contact with body fluids is necessary. First world countries impose immediate quarantines and the inhabitants of the first world do not generally do stupid and ignorant things like steal sheets out of ebola-ridden hospitals.

Ebola, as it is now, also "burns out" quickly because it kills its hosts so quickly. The only reason there is an epidemic in Africa right now is because of ignorance, frankly; ignorance has led to the hospital incident, the insistence that bodies be prepared by uninfected family members who then become infected, etc. Isolation procedures and the quick deaths/incineration of bodies in the first world would stop an epidemic here pretty quickly.

If it becomes airborne, it's a different story. I would be interested in someone with a lot of microbiology experience chiming in here to tell us whether ebola is likely or unlikely to mutate into an airborne virus.

[Avalux]

13. Ebola virus will mutate if active and spreading.

Viruses are constantly adapting and changing to survive; the Ebola causing this epidemic (there are 5 different subtypes) will change if not contained, and we really don't want any surprises, like it suddenly becoming airborne.

So - the likelihood of Ebola being spread through the air is dependent on the length of time it is allowed to 'breed' unchecked.

[Nay]

17. Thanks for the info! nt

[NickB79]

21. That is not correct

So - the likelihood of Ebola being spread through the air is dependent on the length of time it is allowed to 'breed' unchecked.

Literally thousands of diseases have been with humans for millenia, and have yet to mutate to airborne forms. There is no expected evolutionary progression to airborne transmission. In fact, most diseases have evolved to be LESS lethal as time progresses, to prevent their host populations from being wiped out.

While viruses can mutate in rapid and unpredictable ways, they still need to retain the genetic code that is their core: the ability to recognize and bind to host cells, to replicate themselves accurately, to evade immune system challenges, etc. Oftentimes, a mutation that might convey a new feature, such as airborne transmission, also inadvertently changes these core functions to make the virus unable to infect a host efficiently.

I can recall reading of people in the mid-80's talking about the risk of "airborne HIV", yet here we are today.

[B2G]

22. This is bad enough

Which explains why taxis and hired motor bikes have become a major source of transmission in Liberia.

Now, about those airplanes...


"SURVIVAL OUTSIDE HOST: The virus can survive in liquid or dried material for a number of days (23). Infectivity is found to be stable at room temperature or at 4°C for several days, and indefinitely stable at -70°C (6, 20). Infectivity can be preserved by lyophilisation."

http://www.msdsonline.com/resources/msds-resources/free-safety-data-sheet-index/ebola-virus.aspx

[Voice for Peace]

23. thanks Nick!

[Avalux]

24. Ebola virus species have displayed the ability to be spread through airborne particles in the lab.

There are no documented cases in the population yet. I'm not trying to scare anyone, but your insistence that it can't happen is incorrect. It's possible.

Ebola and HIV are different kinds of viruses, so you can't expect them to behave in the same way.

[B2G]

26. And aeresol vs airborne transmission is a minor distinction if

you're within 3 feet of someone or come in contact with any surfaces they've infected.

[Avalux]

27. Here's a site with a wealth of Ebola info:

http://ci.vbi.vt.edu/pathinfo/pathogens/Ebola_2.html

[heaven05]

5. I knew it, I knew it

and it will spread wider than this tragedy. exponentially. ugly, ugly word.

[Sunlei]

9. The world needs a vaccine against ebola.

[Avalux]

16. Yes that would be great. Prevention is the key to stopping it now though.

Because it's not airborne, quarantine of those infected is the single best way to stop this current epidemic. There needs to be more resources and bodies on the ground educating people. Time is really important right now.

[BB1]

18. The world hás a vaccin against ebola.

So far, it's only been used in the USA.

[Sunlei]

19. that's not a vaccine (a shot to prevent the virus) That USA product is a treatment.

[Hissyspit]

28. Ebola Vaccine Fully Successful in Monkey Tests: Study

http://mobile.bloomberg.com/news/2014-09-07/study-ebola-vaccine-fully-successful-in-monkey-tests.html

Ebola Vaccine Fully Successful in Monkey Tests: Study
By Kelly Gilblom
September 07, 2014 1:00 PM EDT

Monkeys infected with Ebola five weeks after they were given an experimental vaccine from GlaxoSmithKline Plc survived without developing any symptoms of the deadly virus, leading researchers to start human tests.

[Hugabear]

35. But vaccines are evil and cause autism!

Except there is a sizable number of people who believe that vaccines are evil

[Marrah_G]

40. What the world needs is better medical care and education in countries with extreme poverty

In the short term there needs to be more resources, equipment, doctors and support staff sent to help.

Poverty and everything that comes with it is why this is spreading.

[B2G]

10. They think taxis are a big tranmission point

"Taxis being used to transport infected patients appeared to be "a hot source of potential virus transmission", the WHO said."

Full article here:

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-29115298

[Sunlei]

20. sure taxis, used bedding, clothes. flies can carry diseases to anything they land on.

[Bosonic]

11. Probably a false positive, but

CDC: Potential Ebola Case at Miami Hospital

A potential case of Ebola is being treated at a Miami-area hospital, officials with the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said Monday.

The details of the case and patient weren't immediately known.

The possible case in Florida comes as health officials worldwide continue to try to control what the CDC says is the largest Ebola outbreak in history. More than 2,100 cases of Ebola have been confirmed since the current outbreak started in December of last year in West Africa. Suspected deaths are at 1,848.

http://www.nbcmiami.com/news/local/CDC-Potential-Ebola-Case-at-Miami-Hospital-274343711.html

[FLPanhandle]

25. Compared to the common flu, Ebola is a minor killer

The flu kills 250,000 - 500,000 people each and every year. Every once in a while you get a super strain like in 1918 that kills millions and is airborne.

Ebola is, by comparison, difficult to transmit and is a minor risk especially in developed nations.

[Kelvin Mace]

29. And Malaria

killed 473,000-789,000 last year.

http://www.who.int/malaria/media/world_malaria_report_2013/en/

[FLPanhandle]

32. but Malaria is not a sexy new thing for the media to report on.

No perspective anymore.

[Warpy]

30. If it manages to spread to major cities around the world

it won't be a minor killer. Think of it in massively crowded slums in Rio or Mexico City or Singapore or Hong Kong or Dhaka.

Much of the first world will likely see a vaccine in a year or two. Large concentrations of poor people around the world will not and Ebola-Zaire kills 80-90% of the people it infects.

[FLPanhandle]

31. That's a big IF and the virus will have to become more easily transmitted.

Just trying to keep things in perspective here. Before governments panic about a few thousand deaths from a new virus, there are existing viruses, malaria, deaths from simple things like lack of clean water, etc. that kill millions each and every year that far outweigh any potential future risk of Ebola.

Ebola is new and therefore newsworthy even if, by comparison, it's a minor concern.

[Warpy]

33. The CDC says transmission through fomites (contaminated objects) is now probable

Those can be things like clothing and bed linens, seats and door handles on taxicabs, tray tables and arm rests on airplanes.

I'm still digging but I haven't yet found a source for how long a virus can remain viable on surfaces. If it's more robust than smallpox, we are in trouble.

I know you are trying to convince yourself it can't happen here. It can and it will, whether Ebola Zaire or another nasty thing yet to be discovered.

[FLPanhandle]

34. Not trying to convince myself it can't happen here.

Just countering the media hype by comparing it to the common flu, malaria, west nile, Dengue fever, or a host of other illnesses.

The numbers don't lie and Ebola is still at numbers that correspond to a limited transmission vector.

[locks]

36. The world is very short on valid information

and very long on misinformation about the spread of ebola and how it will be contained. Not only because it is such a deadly virus for which we do not yet have a vaccine but because even if the media is trying there are very few accurate reports coming from the severely affected places and the people working to control and contain the virus. There are many reasons.

The risk is very real and not even many trained workers, journalists or world experts are traveling to the countries where they are needed. Many airlines have cut off all flights to and from the affected countries. This means that it is difficult to get equipment, medicines, food, water and workers in. The health systems of these countries which were already fragile (one doctor for 200,000 or more people) now have collapsed, and the trade their economies rely on has stopped, leaving most without jobs or food.

Fear, on the part of health care workers, media, families of people who have had ebola, died, or recovered that they believe can still be infected if they are in contact. So many local and international care and medical workers have died, the staff have left and clinics and hospitals are closed. The many other high risk illnesses like malaria and HIV are not being treated. Children are not allowed to go to school.

Distrust, of their governments and the information they receive (Sierra Leone deciding to use 12,000 police to keep every person in the country in their homes for four days), political figures accusing each other of using the epidemic to further careers, or unwilling to give accurate information to WHO, lack of any coordination between all the agencies trying to help or sending their workers home, of health care workers from developed nations dressed in protective gear not even allowed to be in the hot zone or comfort sick and dying patients. Still being caught in long-term wars and terrible conflicts between tribes and religions, the exploitation of workers by the world corporations which are taking out their oil and minerals, corruption and fraud at every level. And the population more dense than we can imagine. Just one city in Nigeria, Lagos, had 300,000 people in 1950; now 22 MILLION people live there, 2/3 in slums without sanitation, water, or electricity.

We can understand why the US and other developed nations first of all want to protect themselves from a risk like ebola, but it is folly to believe that in this day and age just because we have wealth and a huge military force we can build high enough barriers to escape a tragedy like our neighbors in west Africa are now facing. Ebola CAN be contained but not with guns or good thoughts.

[quadrature]

37. worldwide travel-ban is needed now

Ebola is death by political inaction.

politicians are reluctant to take any step
that will disrupt their tax revenue