Donald Trump Suffers Huge Vote Against Him in Maryland, Nebraska

[BumRushDaShow]

Source: Newsweek

Published May 15, 2024 at 2:28 AM EDT


Donald Trump is continuing to see possible warning signs for his White House bid as significant numbers of people are still voting against him in the GOP primary. On Tuesday, the presumptive 2024 Republican candidate continued his domination in the primaries with resounding victories in Maryland, Nebraska and West Virginia, winning 80 percent, 79.6 percent and 88.4 percent of the votes in the respective states.

However, former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley, who dropped out of the race two months ago, is still receiving a notable number of votes against the former president, winning 20 percent of the vote in Maryland, or more than 47,500 votes, and 17.8 percent in Nebraska, which amounts to nearly 37,000 ballots.

The Context

While Trump easily secured the GOP presidential nomination, winning all but two of the primary races, there have been signs that the former president is struggling to fully win over Republicans beyond his MAGA base as waves of voters continue to support Haley.

Haley was seen as a more moderate Republican candidate in the GOP primary, with moderates and independents seen as potentially vital to Trump's hopes of taking back the White House from President Joe Biden in November.

Read more: https://www.newsweek.com/donald-trump-vote-against-maryland-nebraska-primary-nikki-haley-1900717

[getagrip_already]

1. And notably, the polls were completely wrong.....

Both in these primaries and the dem senate primary in Maryland.

When are people going to wake up to the the fact that polls are garbage?

Yet, they get the vapors every time one comes out.

[gab13by13]

2. I agree

Polls are used for propaganda.

Are there ever any polls that overestimate the winning margin for a Democrat?

Why is it that all of the polls predict a better % than the actual vote for the Magat?

[getagrip_already]

4. Depends on the media narrative

There are times when they pump up a dem, presumably to suppress dem turnout.

Usually that's done when there is a hot button issue on the ballot that draws out the gop but doesn't matter to dems, or when people who never voted before become energized to vote for the first time and nobody sees them coming.

Dems figure it's in the bag and they are free to not bother voting, or to protest vote. This happened in 2016.

[ClaudetteCC]

9. IIRC in 2016 Hillary Clinton was assumed by far to be the winner

such that some odds maker (in Ireland) paid out before the election but got it wrong.

[Bengus81]

12. Yep...I don't remember Biden having any poll lead in 2020

Nah...Joe was going to be sent packing by his Highness Trump according to the MSM which Magots and other Republicans that always claim their rigged for Dems.

[NanaCat]

14. Some polls are garbage

Because they develop them in league with clients who want a certain outcome.

However, maybe try not jumping to the worst conclusions about what's up with how volatile the polls are. Trends can catch pollsters flat-footed, and they don't always turn on a dime to account for them.

That's why I suspect that the problems in polling now come not from malice, but from the pollsters being behind where voters are right now. They're still trying to sort out the effect of the Dobbs decision with the squishy middle of the potential electorate, and now they're slammed with accounting for dissension over TSF in GQP ranks, too.

These trends aren't easy to account for, mathematically, and adjusting for that won't happen overnight.

[Botany]

3. I wonder if Trump will make Berry Goldwater's 1964 loss look small?

And will he even be running in the fall if he has felony convictions?

[Ligyron]

10. Gosh, I hope so...

A more normal candidate, like a Haley, would be much harder to beat.

As it is, conviction or not, if Trump’s still on the ballot many more normal GOP voters will either stay home or more likely vote all GOP except for President, either a write in or they may actually vote for Biden and for democracy to continue.

There’s a lot of pissed off women, a good number of which are GOP and will vote Democrat because of Roe being canceled by their own party.

Got carried away, but that’s the way I see it, anyway.

[Botany]

11. In every state and even in the red ones where a woman's right to health care aka abortion has been on ...

…. the ballot the vote has been pro women. Add in that it is very likely that Trump will be a
convicted felony by Election Day and Btw Trump is way underwater as per popularity
across much of America too.

Also Trump is draining the RNC’s funds to pay off his legal bills. Not that we should stop
working but we could see a massive blue wave this fall.

[bucolic_frolic]

5. Even if Biden grabs 20% of Haley votes, and 15% more stay home

and RFK Jr grabs 3% ....

We would have to lose 40% of black vote and 25% of progressives stay home just to equal the 2020 %'s.

Or at least that's my off the cuff back of the envelope math.

[et tu]

6. i like your math

roe roe roe your vote~

[SarahD]

7. Makes me wonder.

A significant number of Republicans are making the effort to vote for a candidate who dropped out.

[BumRushDaShow]

8. Note too that they are also voting for other candidates and initiatives

and the act of "voting" means they don't get purged from the rolls.

Haley has been getting anywhere from 12% - 25% of the GOP vote through all of the primaries (45 states) to date, and the media wants to ignore that to focus on the Biden "uncommitted" vote (although some of that over-focus has finally died down a bit because it was hypocritical).

Back of the envelope based on this (PDF) - https://www.fec.gov/resources/cms-content/documents/2024pdates.pdf

was that there are now 5 states plus D.C. left to vote (plus a couple territories) and it has been consistent in almost all of them.

[ificandream]

13. Makes me wonder if Trump would pull a Joe Biden and ask Haley to be his running mate.

I kind of doubt she would, but then so many Republicans who have spoken out against him have come back to his fold.

[NanaCat]

15. He won't pick her

She's hurt his fee-fees. Plus, too many in his base will never vote for a ticket with a VP who is brown, a woman or, worst of all to them, both.