Missouri Dems Counter Mason-Dixon With Internal Poll

[Coyotl]

Source: nationaljournal.com = By Dan Friedman October 27

Missouri Democrats are shrugging off a poll commissioned by state media that shows tight Senate and gubernatorial races and citing internal polling that has the state's top Democrats, Sen. Claire McCaskill and Gov. Jay Nixon, maintaining big leads in the Show Me state.

A survey conducted by Mason-Dixon Polling and Research for the St. Louis Post-Dispatch, KMOV-TV in St. Louis and the Kansas City Star showed McCaskill with a 45 percent to 43 percent lead over Rep. Todd Akin, R-Mo., and Nixon up just six points. The poll of 625 likely voters was conducted from October 23-25 had a margin of error of plus-or-minus four percent.

But the McCaskill campaign is dismissing the poll, and is set Saturday to release its October 25 internal tracking poll. A summary of poll results shows McCaskill increasing her lead over Akin to thirteen points, 52 percent to 39 percent ....

Read more: http://hotlineoncall.nationaljournal.com/archives/2012/10/missouri-dems-c.php

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If the Mason-Dixon poll is so flawed, look for Obama to be close to Romney in Missouri at this point.
Akin has already given Romney a swift kick, and now Mourdock has reignited that fire, with impact to follow.

I'm still predicting Obama in Missouri:

***** Official Pre-Election Electoral College Vote = Predictions Thread *****
http://www.democraticunderground.com/10021644060

[Robbins]

1. Missouri

I am Missouri DUer.I call BS on poll.Here In Kansas City we are seeing no Akin ads.I see Spense ads although Nixon has more ads.
I see McCaskill ads and outside groups going after Akin.

Bush won Missouri by 4 In 2000 and 8 In 2004.No way Romney does better than Bush.Remember Romney Isn't beloved here In
Missouri.At best I see Romney winning between 5 and 8.Don't be shocked If It Is closer than some polls suggest.I still believe
Romney Is likely to win Missouri but If we can get good turn out In St Louis city and county,Kansas City,and COlumbia It could be
somewhat close.

Mason Dixon underpolled Obama In 2008.

[loudsue]

2. But this is how they steal it...by saying it's all "close"

It ain't close! Nowhere. But come election day, we're going to see the biggest "surprise" neck'n'neck that you've ever seen.

[TheDebbieDee]

4. I surely HOPE that the repukes aren't styoo-pid enough to play that 2000 script again......

That shit just won't fly again! I don't think Obama supporters will just sit at home and watch Rmoney be declared the "Winner" by faux-news........

[TheDebbieDee]

3. I agree. Obama lost Missouri by less than 4,000 votes in 2008.......

Obama has a good chance to win Missouri if there is good turnout in urban Missouri areas.

I have volunteered many Saturdays for the Obama campaign these last 7 months manning voter registration posts at various places around town and I believe that Missouri is in play for Obama even if the Obama campaign itself doesn't think so.

[ChiciB1]

5. Just Heard MSNBC Say That Akin Is

within 2 pts of Claire!! AND Romney beating Obama in popular vote by 50% to 45%!

This stuff is crazy and all over the place!! If you hear it enough... people WILL believe!

[justiceischeap]

6. Is the RLDS still big in Independence?

When I lived in MO all my cousins graduated at the RLDS auditorium in Independence. And do the RLDS, if it's still big there, support Romney?

[FreeState]

10. Changed their name to Church of Christ

They are still there - however most of the members are not conservative anymore. (The most conservative have broken off, happened when the let women have the Priesthood and instilled a prophet that was not directly related to Joseph Smith.)

[lastlib]

12. The wing that broke off, the Restoration branch, is pretty conservative....

...and has some sway around here. There is still a number of actual LDS around Independence, and Rmoney is strong with them. I know quite a few of those folks, and they almost scare me with their anti-Obama venom. The actual Community of Christ folks actually do seem to be pretty conservative politically, from what I see. (I don't know that I see the whole picture on them, just reporting what I see.)

[still_one]

7. The mason dixon polls have always been outliers as far as I could remember

[GranholmFan]

8. Um, Obama is not winning.

Romney up +13.

just because someone is voting for McCaskill does not translate to Obama.

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/10/27/1151146/-GOTV-for-Claire-McCaskill-Observations-from-the-front-door

[glacierbay]

9. I agree

Pres. Obama is not going to carry Missouri. McCaskill will probably win and I'm pretty sure that Jay Nixon will keep his seat as Gov. but Obama has no chance of winning MO.

[Coyotl]

11. On which planet?

The one he will become the god of when he ascends into the glorious afterlife where all the Jews are baptized Mormons

[Robbins]

13. Um

Mason DIxon Is only one where Romney Is up 13.They are bad pollster when It comes to Obama.

PPP has Romney up by 5 and RAS had Romney by 8.Those are more realistic.

[ffr]

14. That actually may come true with the heavy Democratic turnout we're seeing everywhere

Other red states that aren't even in play are getting swamped and Florida is setting records above 2008.

But let's not get ahead of ourselves. It'll only happen if Democrats continue to step up and stand with other Americans by early voteing/VOTING for Obama-Biden.

[Coyotl]

15. By definition, a prediction is getting "ahead of ourselves" and the prediction is based on

factors such as GOTV efforts, turnout, enthusiasm for the candidate, polling and polling biases, the candidates and their statements, plus factors like Akin and Mourdock on rape, Ryan lying, Mitt's plethora of untruth, etc.

Another variable to factor in, a difficult one, is the screw-up factor. Who is a screw-up and who has a track record of not screwing up. Romney is a screw-up,plain and simple. He sticks his foot in him mouth, says things like 'the teachers union is gonna be left behind' to a national audience that includes almost every teacher in America. What a bozo!

Another factor is party platform. The coat hanger policy will not fly in the USA today. This is the most significant issue in politics in terms of single issue deciders. The war on women is going to kill the Rs this time.

Also, take into account what else/who else is on the ballot where and who that brings to the polls.

Prediction is a science, not a magic trick. I'm somewhere in between