Fri Oct 19, 2012, 10:03 AM

Ipsos/Reuters Daily Election Tracking: Obama 47% - Romney 44%

Source: Ipsos/Reuters

Wasington, D.C. - Today’s Reuters/Ipsos Daily Tracking poll is unchanged from yesterday, with 47% of likely voters saying they plan to vote for Obama vs. 44% for Romney.

Other findings include updated numbers from our post-debate metrics:

One in ten say that they have already voted (53% voted for Obama vs. 44% for Romney - although we know from the last two elections that Democrats have tended to vote early), and an additional 28% intend to vote in advance of Election Day.

15% of voters who plan to vote for either candidate say that they may change their mind before Election Day.

When it comes to the debate, nearly half of Registered Voters (48%) believe that Obama won, compared to 34% who think Romney did the better.

This is a daily rolling tracker – this means that we conduct 300+ interviews a day, with occasional ‘boosts’, and aggregate data from the previous 4-5 days. The sample overlap that occurs as part of this process means that day-to-day changes will be incremental rather than large.

Read more: http://www.ipsos-na.com/news-polls/pressrelease.aspx?id=5839

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13 replies	Author	Time	Post
Ipsos/Reuters Daily Election Tracking: Obama 47% - Romney 44% (Original post)	trailmonkee	Oct 2012	OP
All the more reason to doubt Gallup	Andy Stanton	Oct 2012	#1
Gallup is now at 6% Romney	Andy Stanton	Oct 2012	#10
One in ten say that they have already voted = 53% voted for Obama vs. 44% for Romney	Coyotl	Oct 2012	#2
However... "we know from the last two elections that Democrats have tended to vote early"	groundloop	Oct 2012	#6
I sure like that better than Gallup	Douglas Carpenter	Oct 2012	#3
Rasmussen now shows a tie	Andy Stanton	Oct 2012	#4
Did they have romney up previously?	efhmc	Oct 2012	#5
They had Romney at +2.	Hyper_Eye	Oct 2012	#8
Thought they did. Thanks for the info.	efhmc	Oct 2012	#9
Good News	Liberalynn	Oct 2012	#7
The debate 1 dip just shows how viscous people are.	DaveJ	Oct 2012	#11
Obama is now ahead in Realclear	Andy Stanton	Oct 2012	#12
Good to Hear, But Emphasis On Polls Is A Bit Distracting...	TomCADem	Oct 2012	#13

Response to trailmonkee (Original post)

Fri Oct 19, 2012, 10:09 AM

Andy Stanton (262 posts)

1. All the more reason to doubt Gallup

Though I'm sure the Gallup numbers will move substantially in Obama's direction and we'll probably see it today.

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Response to Andy Stanton (Reply #1)

Fri Oct 19, 2012, 01:40 PM

Andy Stanton (262 posts)

10. Gallup is now at 6% Romney

Still an outlier but at least it's heading in the right direction.

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Response to trailmonkee (Original post)

Fri Oct 19, 2012, 10:20 AM

Coyotl (5,164 posts)

2. One in ten say that they have already voted = 53% voted for Obama vs. 44% for Romney

Do the math, Romney is screwed.

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Response to Coyotl (Reply #2)

Fri Oct 19, 2012, 11:49 AM

groundloop (2,009 posts)

6. However... "we know from the last two elections that Democrats have tended to vote early"

We can't start our victory dance quite yet.

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Response to trailmonkee (Original post)

Fri Oct 19, 2012, 10:23 AM

Douglas Carpenter (15,155 posts)

3. I sure like that better than Gallup

It does seem that this year at this particular time polls are all over the place.

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Response to trailmonkee (Original post)

Fri Oct 19, 2012, 10:48 AM

Andy Stanton (262 posts)

4. Rasmussen now shows a tie

And Rasmussen leans Republican.

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Response to Andy Stanton (Reply #4)

Fri Oct 19, 2012, 11:42 AM

efhmc (9,597 posts)

5. Did they have romney up previously?

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Response to efhmc (Reply #5)

Fri Oct 19, 2012, 01:09 PM

Hyper_Eye (544 posts)

8. They had Romney at +2.

So they show a 2 point swing which is what many said President Obama would likely get out of the debate. If Rasmussen shows them tied I would expect a number of polls to come along that show President Obama leading. They are almost always favorable to Romney compared to other polls.

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Response to Hyper_Eye (Reply #8)

Fri Oct 19, 2012, 01:27 PM

efhmc (9,597 posts)

9. Thought they did. Thanks for the info.

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Response to trailmonkee (Original post)

Fri Oct 19, 2012, 11:51 AM

Liberalynn (5,550 posts)

7. Good News

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Response to trailmonkee (Original post)

Fri Oct 19, 2012, 02:49 PM

DaveJ (4,934 posts)

11. The debate 1 dip just shows how viscous people are.

Geez you have one bad day and there are undecided types who will hang you out to dry.

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Response to trailmonkee (Original post)

Fri Oct 19, 2012, 11:17 PM

Andy Stanton (262 posts)

12. Obama is now ahead in Realclear

Only by .1 point, but he was behind by over 1 point.
I predict that when Gallup's figures come out on Monday afternoon (1:30pm EST) they will show Romney with a 1 or 2 point lead (down from 6) and Realclear's average will have Obama ahead by 1 point.

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Response to trailmonkee (Original post)

Sat Oct 20, 2012, 04:53 PM

TomCADem (6,371 posts)

13. Good to Hear, But Emphasis On Polls Is A Bit Distracting...

Last edited Sat Oct 20, 2012, 04:54 PM USA/ET - Edit history (1)

...Given Romney's lies or extreme proposals to end Medicare are largely being ignored by the media.

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