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Mon Oct 8, 2012, 09:20 AM

GALLUP: Obama Bouncing Back Already To 5-Point Lead (update)

Last edited Mon Oct 8, 2012, 09:43 PM - Edit history (1)

Source: Washington Post/Gallup

The article I posted below, is from this morning, and it came out prior to the new Gallup numbers which are much much much more positive for Obama... Here is the link to the thread with the updated numbers, I will keep this thread open just because so many people have commented in this thread, and I don't want to delete the information that you posted, but please remember that this is an old article from this morning, the new article is at this link: http://www.democraticunderground.com/1014259947



Following last week’s debate, President Obama has lost his five-point lead in Gallup’s tracking poll of registered voters. In the first three days of polling since the debate, Obama and Mitt Romney are tied at 47 percent each.

In the poll’s seven-day rolling average Obama still has a three-point edge, but that includes three days before the debate. Clearly, the race has narrowed slightly but significantly in Gallup polling since.

Debate-watchers agreed that Romney beat Obama by a 72 to 20 percent margin. Even Democrats agreed that Romney did better than Obama, 49 to 39 percent.

Romney’s 52-point debate win is the largest Gallup has ever recorded. The closest was a 1992 town hall debate, in which voters agreed that Bill Clinton beat George H.W. Bush by a 42-point margin.

The tracking poll results come from a survey of 1,387 registered voters with a margin of error of plus-or-minus 3 percentage points. The debate results come from a poll of 749 debate watchers; the margin of error is plus-or-minus 4 points.

Read more: http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/election-2012/wp/2012/10/08/obama-loses-five-point-edge-in-gallup-poll/



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Reply GALLUP: Obama Bouncing Back Already To 5-Point Lead (update) (Original post)
trailmonkee Oct 2012 OP
dennis4868 Oct 2012 #1
GOTV Oct 2012 #2
JoePhilly Oct 2012 #3
Baitball Blogger Oct 2012 #15
JoePhilly Oct 2012 #17
Baitball Blogger Oct 2012 #18
JoePhilly Oct 2012 #60
catbyte Oct 2012 #54
JoePhilly Oct 2012 #61
zeemike Oct 2012 #4
closeupready Oct 2012 #27
demwing Oct 2012 #37
zeemike Oct 2012 #39
demwing Oct 2012 #42
zeemike Oct 2012 #51
Lisa D Oct 2012 #44
zeemike Oct 2012 #53
demwing Oct 2012 #70
sofa king Oct 2012 #119
budkin Oct 2012 #49
NYC_SKP Oct 2012 #5
bigdarryl Oct 2012 #6
karynnj Oct 2012 #26
patrice Oct 2012 #72
liberal N proud Oct 2012 #7
hrmjustin Oct 2012 #29
rfranklin Oct 2012 #8
trailmonkee Oct 2012 #13
still_one Oct 2012 #19
budkin Oct 2012 #59
still_one Oct 2012 #108
My Pet Goat Oct 2012 #9
RiverNoord Oct 2012 #10
catbyte Oct 2012 #11
oswaldactedalone Oct 2012 #14
LovingA2andMI Oct 2012 #34
patrice Oct 2012 #68
budkin Oct 2012 #62
zeemike Oct 2012 #23
JDPriestly Oct 2012 #24
NYC Liberal Oct 2012 #43
renate Oct 2012 #101
Evasporque Oct 2012 #12
still_one Oct 2012 #20
plethoro Oct 2012 #16
JDPriestly Oct 2012 #21
plethoro Oct 2012 #28
maddiemom Oct 2012 #63
plethoro Oct 2012 #97
demwing Oct 2012 #38
FedUpWithIt All Oct 2012 #46
plethoro Oct 2012 #98
renate Oct 2012 #100
patrice Oct 2012 #69
plethoro Oct 2012 #99
patrice Oct 2012 #104
patrice Oct 2012 #105
plethoro Oct 2012 #107
patrice Oct 2012 #117
plethoro Oct 2012 #118
torotoro Oct 2012 #22
LovingA2andMI Oct 2012 #25
graham4anything Oct 2012 #30
VirginiaTarheel Oct 2012 #45
graham4anything Oct 2012 #48
hrmjustin Oct 2012 #31
Iliyah Oct 2012 #32
heaven05 Oct 2012 #33
LovingA2andMI Oct 2012 #35
heaven05 Oct 2012 #88
meadowlark5 Oct 2012 #36
FedUpWithIt All Oct 2012 #40
jzodda Oct 2012 #41
davidn3600 Oct 2012 #50
budkin Oct 2012 #47
oswaldactedalone Oct 2012 #52
karynnj Oct 2012 #55
oswaldactedalone Oct 2012 #64
karynnj Oct 2012 #71
maddogesq Oct 2012 #56
budkin Oct 2012 #58
BumRushDaShow Oct 2012 #66
andym Oct 2012 #57
budkin Oct 2012 #65
toby jo Oct 2012 #67
demwing Oct 2012 #73
OldDem2012 Oct 2012 #81
AtomicKitten Oct 2012 #83
Liberalynn Oct 2012 #86
redwitch Oct 2012 #113
patrice Oct 2012 #74
DonCoquixote Oct 2012 #76
patrice Oct 2012 #78
DonCoquixote Oct 2012 #84
patrice Oct 2012 #89
DonCoquixote Oct 2012 #116
sulphurdunn Oct 2012 #75
Peregrine Took Oct 2012 #77
Peregrine Took Oct 2012 #79
DonCoquixote Oct 2012 #85
OldDem2012 Oct 2012 #80
patrice Oct 2012 #82
Safetykitten Oct 2012 #87
MjolnirTime Oct 2012 #91
patrice Oct 2012 #92
MjolnirTime Oct 2012 #90
wordpix Oct 2012 #93
trailmonkee Oct 2012 #94
patrice Oct 2012 #95
Megahurtz Oct 2012 #96
elleng Oct 2012 #102
trailmonkee Oct 2012 #103
elleng Oct 2012 #106
trailmonkee Oct 2012 #112
elleng Oct 2012 #114
trailmonkee Oct 2012 #115
DavidL Oct 2012 #109
trailmonkee Oct 2012 #111
demwing Oct 2012 #110

Response to trailmonkee (Original post)

Mon Oct 8, 2012, 09:25 AM

1. Well

at least Obama can laugh and joke about his debate performance

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Response to trailmonkee (Original post)

Mon Oct 8, 2012, 09:26 AM

2. Wow. What was Obama thinking?

I expected it to be bad but, man. This is not how you play 7-dimensional chess.

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Response to trailmonkee (Original post)

Mon Oct 8, 2012, 09:26 AM

3. Mitt still seems to be unable to get above 47%.

Look at the polls over the last 3 months. Mitt almost never gets above 47%. Obama for comparison, gets above 47% regularly.

These tracking polls will also have a delayed reaction to UE dropping to 7.8%. Expect that to have a longer lasting effect.

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Response to JoePhilly (Reply #3)

Mon Oct 8, 2012, 09:54 AM

15. From what I'm reading in the papers, the jobs report will not affect undecideds, because that's not

how they vote. What it will do is knock the air out of the Republican's sails.

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Response to Baitball Blogger (Reply #15)

Mon Oct 8, 2012, 10:12 AM

17. The decline in UE from a high of 10.2% to 7.8%, and trending down should help Obama on the

economy.

Its probably also why Consumer Confidence is UP since Friday. If people are feeling better about the economy, it will be harder to vote to change directions.

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Response to JoePhilly (Reply #17)

Mon Oct 8, 2012, 10:17 AM

18. Joe Scarboro probably didn't get this meme.

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Response to Baitball Blogger (Reply #18)

Mon Oct 8, 2012, 12:39 PM

60. Scabby is a right wing hack. The only meme's he knows are anti-Obama memes.

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Response to JoePhilly (Reply #3)

Mon Oct 8, 2012, 12:21 PM

54. 47%. Ironic, isn't it?

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Response to catbyte (Reply #54)

Mon Oct 8, 2012, 12:39 PM

61. Very much so.

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Response to trailmonkee (Original post)

Mon Oct 8, 2012, 09:27 AM

4. Yep the fix is in.

And the polls are tightening just like the CTers said it would....got to keep it close.
As if that 5% watched the debate and decided to change who they support because Obama did not attack...it is all bullshit folks....bullshit that they control and use to explain away a stolen election.

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Response to zeemike (Reply #4)

Mon Oct 8, 2012, 10:36 AM

27. It's laying foundation in order to steal it - just like they did from Al Gore.

Must have grounds for plausible doubt in case, post-election, someone goes sniffing around and finds something fishy.

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Response to zeemike (Reply #4)

Mon Oct 8, 2012, 10:51 AM

37. Do you think Nate Silver is a CTer?

Because even before the debate, Silver predicted Romney would get about a 3% bump this week.

How does that fit into your gloomy scenario?

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Response to demwing (Reply #37)

Mon Oct 8, 2012, 11:07 AM

39. And he based it on what?

Prior polling?
And you may see it as gloomy to think that the system is controlled and so are we by it, but I think it is far gloomier to assume the system is real when it is not.

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Response to zeemike (Reply #39)

Mon Oct 8, 2012, 11:52 AM

42. I think it is gloomy to assume

that there is nothing that we can do to win this, just because Romney caught the bump that many EXPECTED him to catch.

You may find comfort in pessimism, but I do not.

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Response to demwing (Reply #42)

Mon Oct 8, 2012, 12:16 PM

51. Not at all...there is plenty we can do

Like we did last time...massive voter turnout...that is the only way we can win.
What I as the problem is the willingness to accept anything that TV tells us is true...and then wring our hands and blame Obama for it....based on some notion that if you don't attack you lose....and the TV tells us that.

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Response to zeemike (Reply #39)

Mon Oct 8, 2012, 12:00 PM

44. He based it on historical data

of incumbents going against challengers in a first debate situation.

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Response to Lisa D (Reply #44)

Mon Oct 8, 2012, 12:18 PM

53. And the data includes the 2000 and 2004 elections.

which were stolen IMHO.
Skewed data in, skewed data out.

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Response to zeemike (Reply #53)

Mon Oct 8, 2012, 12:57 PM

70. It would only include those debates

not the elections themselves. What's your point? Does any of this change the gloom and doom of your "The fix is in" post?

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Response to Lisa D (Reply #44)

Tue Oct 9, 2012, 02:10 PM

119. You can both be correct.

If the press has been consistently manipulating their polls to favor the challenger after the first debate for decades, then the manipulation would show up routinely in the historical data and might easily be accepted as a normal and predictable phenomenon.

I myself have pointed out repeatedly in the past month or more that the press, the pollsters, the television media, and the corporate boards that control all of them have numerous personal, financial, and professional reasons to keep it a close race. They are trying to create imaginary momentum in hopes that it will create some actual momentum for Romney down the road. But it won't.

About a month outside of the election, pollsters can no longer monkey around with models favoring one candidate or the other. Gallup this week switches to a likely voter model (with which I have other issues) for example.

The pollsters have to start trying to call it straight because they need to call it as straight as they can for the final polls, or their reputations will suffer in subsequent elections.

The result, I believe, is already making itself evident. The polls that have consistently favored Romney the most will have the most dramatic "walk back" to the true numbers, which I believe strongly favor President Obama.

I also guessed that some poll-watchers would find the shift in favor of President Obama inexplicable in light of his debate performance, but I haven't seen that yet.

I am a very, very cynical person, and statistics is hardly my area of expertise. But corruption, well, I've seen enough of that to feel like I know it real goddamned well. Corruption is at work here, but public opinion is in a position to overwhelm it, which I believe was the President's plan the whole time.

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Response to zeemike (Reply #39)

Mon Oct 8, 2012, 12:08 PM

49. He's a number cruncher going off historical data trends

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Response to trailmonkee (Original post)

Mon Oct 8, 2012, 09:30 AM

5. "survey of 1,387 registered voters"

not concerned.

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Response to trailmonkee (Original post)

Mon Oct 8, 2012, 09:30 AM

6. The next Gallup poll comes out at 1:00PM there responding to a poll that was yesterdays news JESUS!!

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Response to bigdarryl (Reply #6)

Mon Oct 8, 2012, 10:31 AM

26. The next two days may well look bad

Looking back at the time series, the points that will fall out today were points that shifted an already high gap further in Obama's favor. Tuesday will lose an especially good day that increased the gap by 2 points. In fact, these are the two best days of the 4 averaged to get the plus 5 in the report today for pre debate. Tuesday's numbers may well show a plus Romney 7 day average.

However, Wednesday could be the first good news - because the point that will roll out moved the average 2 points in Romney's direction - and this was BEFORE the debates and weighted down the pre estimate.

The shifts I am referring to were calculated by taking the new estimate of (O - R) and subtracting the prior day's (O-R). One observation looking at the new series I created for the past 10 days is that the daily swings can be pretty big. Consider that a to shift an average 2 points, you need the difference in the gap between the new point minus the point leaving the average to be about 14 points! That there are 3 (2 or -2), you can imagine how badly the numbers would swing if the daily numbers were not averaged.

It looks like the polling done on October 5th was a very bad day for us. Apparently the day and a half of speaking of how bad Obama was in the polls hurt even though this was the day of the unemployment numbers. (In fact, looking at the series, that day might be single handedly causing two less bad days to look even.) This will roll out on Saturday.

Caveat - This is an attempt to look at the released numbers and try to use them to get at a daily sequence that they are NOT releasing. There is no real mathematical way to work back to get the actual numbers that I know of.

I did think that it was useful to do and warn people that today and tomorrow may look really bad that it is entirely possible that the cause is more some really good earlier points spinning out than the new ones coming in.

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Response to karynnj (Reply #26)

Mon Oct 8, 2012, 01:01 PM

72. This makes sense. Thank you, karynnj!

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Response to trailmonkee (Original post)

Mon Oct 8, 2012, 09:32 AM

7. Oh doom, we are finished, it all over!

So what are you going to do about it other than bang your gif head against the gif wall?

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Response to liberal N proud (Reply #7)

Mon Oct 8, 2012, 10:36 AM

29. lol we surrender.

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Response to trailmonkee (Original post)

Mon Oct 8, 2012, 09:37 AM

8. Meaningless since this is "registered voter" not likely voters...

 

Low info, registered non-voters are making that needle move. They "heard" that Romney won the debate so they are now regurgitating that meme.

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Response to rfranklin (Reply #8)

Mon Oct 8, 2012, 09:48 AM

13. exactly... LIV's also read these exagerated headlines and believe that Romney is clobbering...

....which is not the case, I am looking forward to polls rolling in this week, I think they will give us a more accurate outlook

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Response to rfranklin (Reply #8)

Mon Oct 8, 2012, 10:17 AM

19. It isn't meaningless. To say so is being in denial. The polls indicate that something happened to

change the trend to effectively even.

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Response to still_one (Reply #19)

Mon Oct 8, 2012, 12:39 PM

59. Agreed, Obama's debate performance was a disaster

If the debate was at least seen as a tie he could have put the race away. I don't understand how he allowed Romney to lie without calling him out on anything. Even though Romney lied the whole debate it made Obama look weak, which is why these polls have shifted so much.

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Response to budkin (Reply #59)

Mon Oct 8, 2012, 06:12 PM

108. and I really wish I didn't view it that way, but to ignore it is to become complacent

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Response to trailmonkee (Original post)

Mon Oct 8, 2012, 09:38 AM

9. if it was 47% the three days after the debate

Then obama was probably ahead on saturday and sunday (if the 47% is an average of the last three days). If he was at 47% each of the three days, then actually not too bad considering.

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Response to trailmonkee (Original post)

Mon Oct 8, 2012, 09:39 AM

10. The sad and scary truth

From about the first 15 minutes of the debate to the end, I was seriously shaken. I attempted to sleep that night with an overwhelming sense that there was now a distinct possibility of a Romney/Ryan victory in November, a serious national calamity. The bottom line is that when 60+ million Americans view a political debate, a considerable number of Americans have been conditioned to approach what they're seeing as a sport. In an American televised sport, style, finesse, and energy win points - sober assessments of the real world, in contrast, are virtually ignored.

Having seen so many posts and news items attempting to define how Romney's lies will ultimately cost him more than he gained, I have to state my simple position that these assessments are wrong. The guy is actually close to becoming the president of the United States after making it clear that he has no sympathy for essentially half of American citizens who he defines as moochers. That should have tanked him utterly, except that many Americans have come to tacitly accept such garbage as unfortunate truth. His vulnerability was that he was perceived as stuffy, out of touch, and unlikable. The debate changed that.

If Obama doesn't come out prepared to deliver unpredictable, skillfully executed body blows in the next debate, we might be in a world of hurt.

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Response to RiverNoord (Reply #10)

Mon Oct 8, 2012, 09:44 AM

11. Relax, River. I still say the biggest takeaway is that Romney wants to kill Big Bird

I think Biden will rip Ryan a new one rhetorically-speaking, of course, and Romney's bounce will collapse along with his campaign.

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Response to RiverNoord (Reply #10)

Mon Oct 8, 2012, 09:53 AM

14. I agree

These are my thoughts exactly. Romney is now seen as a winner in the minds of many regardless of economic reports, deficit decreases and so on. Obama had a target rich environment on Wednesday and mysteriously kept his powder dry.

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Response to oswaldactedalone (Reply #14)

Mon Oct 8, 2012, 10:45 AM

34. Oh and one more thing....

The fix is in on this website. Not by those who follow the rules and truly abide by them. No it is by those who claim they're Democrats up to this point BUT have been waiting for they perceived "slip up" by President Obama to start their naysaying crapola. These more likely than not are GOP plants sent here on a mission to depress turnout or voting for President Obama.

Watch the threads as they will tell you a lot.

If you don't believe me PLEASE DO a GOOGLE search on DU or better yet here's a link for you:

DUers Explain Why Romney Won Debate: He Used Cheat Sheet

Read more: ]

Yeah, told you. So yes they're watching this site and if it appears that doubt is in the minds of D.U.ers about a President Obama/V.P. Biden win on November 6th, you'll instantly see more and more naysayers come out of the closet, chiming in on the latest "well it appears that Obama's going to lose" thread.

Be aware!!

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Response to LovingA2andMI (Reply #34)

Mon Oct 8, 2012, 12:49 PM

68. bingo Just like reverb in any sound system, potted up/down at the board, for effect on other sources

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Response to oswaldactedalone (Reply #14)

Mon Oct 8, 2012, 12:40 PM

62. I'm still shaking my head

I just don't understand...

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Response to RiverNoord (Reply #10)

Mon Oct 8, 2012, 10:24 AM

23. That is because you have been conditioned to believe

That winning is synonymous with attacking the enemy.
Understandable in this culture of permanent war and permanent conflict where we are groomed to this idea by the TV.
I slept well that night, because I saw in Obama a reasoned man that to me looked presidential...at least the kind of president I want...one that is not always on the cheep attack mode.

What shocked but did not surprise me is the immediate spin that followed that Mitt had won...not surprising because I expected the corporate press to do that...but shocking that so many democrats and the so called democrats bought into it...like you have.

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Response to RiverNoord (Reply #10)

Mon Oct 8, 2012, 10:25 AM

24. Don't get scared. Volunteer!

There are lots of precincts to be walked, lots of voters to talk to, lots of calls to make.

Get out and move. Do it. Don't just talk defeat.

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Response to RiverNoord (Reply #10)

Mon Oct 8, 2012, 11:57 AM

43. The debate didn't change that. It's ALWAYS been a close race, from day one.

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Response to RiverNoord (Reply #10)

Mon Oct 8, 2012, 04:57 PM

101. I'm not worried about the next debate but like you I'm worried about the election

I don't understand how Romney's name hasn't become a one-word joke by now. It's scary that so many people are willing to support somebody like him simply because he has an (R) after his name.

Welcome to DU!

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Response to trailmonkee (Original post)

Mon Oct 8, 2012, 09:47 AM

12. The media strives for contention...

The closer the race the more dollars they make. The squishy center will always be swayed by lies.

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Response to Evasporque (Reply #12)

Mon Oct 8, 2012, 10:21 AM

20. That may be, but if you believed in the polls several weeks ago, the same polls showing a different

result have to be believed as long as they are not changing their methodology



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Response to trailmonkee (Original post)

Mon Oct 8, 2012, 09:58 AM

16. At the end of the debate, I was speechless......

 

Yes, I saw Romney lying every word out of his mouth. And, yes, I knew there would be fact checking and those lies would be uncovered. Yet, Obama's responses to Romney's garbage was so low key, it was unusual. One thing happened that no here has mentioned, although I have people I know mention it to me. At the end of the debate when Romney and Obama were shaking hands they smiled at one another. To me, the smile spoke volumes. It was a smile that said, well, that went according to plan. I still can see it in my mind's eye. I would like to know who coached Obama in his debate performance. I am not as sanguine as others here that Biden will beat Ryan.

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Response to plethoro (Reply #16)

Mon Oct 8, 2012, 10:24 AM

21. How many hours have you volunteered for Obama thus far?

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Response to JDPriestly (Reply #21)

Mon Oct 8, 2012, 10:36 AM

28. Eight hours a day for four weeks now. I have sent out thousands of flyers to my diabetic website,

 

who have distributed them all over the country. I have made phone calls in my district and others of my diabetics have made phone calls or personal appearances in their districts. I have sent money to Obama and to other Democratic candidates. And you, sir, what have you done? You'll notice by my post count I don't have time to post here much. I am about the business of getting Obama re-elected--not simply conversing with those who will already vote for Obama.

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Response to plethoro (Reply #28)

Mon Oct 8, 2012, 12:41 PM

63. I'm confused.

You sound as though the smiles at the end were proof the whole debate was a setup (and President Obama "threw it"). Then you say you've been putting in an unbelievable amount of hours as an Obama volunteer. You couldn't be one of the campaign organizing pros and post as you did, yet imply you actually are a full time volunteer...yeah, right! After a number of hours on the phones, encouraging voters to watch the debate, I adjourned, along with other local Obama volunteers to watch the debate on a local big screen. Admittedly we fell silent over the President's performance. We were to the point of howling in disbelief at Romney's whoppers, however.

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Response to maddiemom (Reply #63)

Mon Oct 8, 2012, 04:25 PM

97. I said four weeks. When was the debate? Yes, you are confused...nft

 

ddddddddddd

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Response to JDPriestly (Reply #21)

Mon Oct 8, 2012, 10:56 AM

38. C'mon...

that's an unfair question

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Response to plethoro (Reply #16)

Mon Oct 8, 2012, 12:04 PM

46. Welcome to DU plethoro.

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Response to FedUpWithIt All (Reply #46)

Mon Oct 8, 2012, 04:33 PM

98. Thanks. I mainly read as I don't have time to post a lot. I

 

have a diabetic website of my own plus I do volunteer work at a large Alzheimer's facility. Good luck to you. Good luck to us all.

?w=580

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Response to plethoro (Reply #98)

Mon Oct 8, 2012, 04:54 PM

100. thank you very much for everything you're doing

And welcome to DU!

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Response to plethoro (Reply #16)

Mon Oct 8, 2012, 12:56 PM

69. Inferring ALL of that from a smile??? And the distinct probability that you are wrong doesn't

matter?

Inference is not logically a necessary validity. You might be right. You might be wrong. However, it appears that the possibility that you could be wrong is meaningless relative to some OTHER value that you place on your claim.

Odd.

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Response to patrice (Reply #69)

Mon Oct 8, 2012, 04:44 PM

99. I have worked in places at levels where most smiles mean something.

 

Of course inference is not logically a necessary validity. Course then, you presupposed an inference. Your last sentence escapes me, as does your summary conclusion. But thank you for your post.

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Response to plethoro (Reply #99)

Mon Oct 8, 2012, 05:28 PM

104. You jumped from a smile to Obama and Robme are in collusion & that's not an inference? wow.

Last edited Tue Oct 9, 2012, 12:11 AM - Edit history (1)

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Response to plethoro (Reply #99)

Mon Oct 8, 2012, 05:47 PM

105. "most smiles mean SOMETHING"/i.e. CAN mean many different things & you picked the one &

only thing out of all of those different things, without any kind of deductive test.

Your choice out of all of those possibilities is inferential and the fact that your choice is the one thing that you decided it is, i.e. collusion, reveals that that "conclusion" is more valuable to you than any and all of the other possibilities, including the possibility that you COULD be wrong and that the actual truth could be completely other than what you have decided it is without anything more than inference, a leap from a smile to one and only one conclusion.

Is it any surprise that someone might infer from your "case" that your conclusion, collusion, might be more important to you than the truth?

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Response to patrice (Reply #105)

Mon Oct 8, 2012, 06:09 PM

107. Not into vagarious word salad, but thank for you post. Next

 

post I'll make sure to post with more specificity and breakdown of my emotive nuances.

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Response to plethoro (Reply #107)

Tue Oct 9, 2012, 12:07 AM

117. Why don't you make good on the aspersion you just threw at me and point to exactly

which of my words you cannot understand?

Or, better yet, WHY don't you ask a question, such as, "What do you mean by _____________________ ?"

I can guess the answer to my question of you; am I right or wrong?

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Response to patrice (Reply #117)

Tue Oct 9, 2012, 04:23 AM

118. With your obvious advanced intuitiveness maybe you should just accept

 

your own answer and dispense with the annoying redundancy. Thank you for your time. However, I still remain concerned regarding the inertia formed by the lopsided debate score and the parting artificial smiles of the debaters, whether my notice of this forms an indictment of myself or not. I'll still send out my Obama flyers and bumper stickers replete with remnants of hope.

plethoro out

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Response to trailmonkee (Original post)

Mon Oct 8, 2012, 10:24 AM

22. NO SURPRISE! And worse is 50 million viewers are voting based on it.

 

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Response to trailmonkee (Original post)

Mon Oct 8, 2012, 10:26 AM

25. OMG!!!

Here we go. Democrats are in panic mode and jumping ship ready to accept based on one debate a President Romney and Vice-President Romney next four years of leadership. CALM DOWN ALREADY.

Amazingly, it appears that American's memories are as short as the next 48 hour news cycle. In 2008, the same thing happened at the exact same time. I.E.--It was perceived that McCain/Palin was "catching up magically" after Sarah Palin's debate performance (where she didn't fall flat on her face -Mainstream Media Analogy) against Joe Biden. The Mainstream Corporate owned/ratings driven media was loud to boast Sister Sarah was amazing, showed she can handle the job and stood toe to toe with Joe supposedly. What happened after Sarah's interviews with Katie? Someone, anyone?

What I'm saying is this is what the OWNED BY THREE MAJOR CORPORATIONS (Time Warner/Comcast/Viacom) media does. If you think this is a joke, please do a Google Search for Gallup's "daily tracking polls" during the second week of October 2008. I BET, in fact I dare you...the findings will be that McCain/Palin were in 2 to 3 statistical points of Obama/Biden (even after being nowhere near that close in polls leading up to that point).

And you know what folks? This is what you get. You fall hook, line and sinker for the B.S. your CORPORATE OWNED/RATING DRIVEN MEDIA gives you without supporting by views and monetary donations TRUE ALTERNATIVE MEDIA or better yet..making your OWN MEDIA!

Welcome to the age of propaganda. Where THEY control the stories, YOU sit on your sofa and better listen without a critical thinking process. Hope you enjoy the ride!

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Response to trailmonkee (Original post)

Mon Oct 8, 2012, 10:37 AM

30. this is not what it says on its side.

 

and the new polls are not released until 1pm eastern, which is 3 hours from now.

and this info actually says that above.

and it is misleading this article, because based on just what the article says ZERO of the poll includes the dramatic unemployment dips to 7.8

one cannot just take one number out of the above article and claim it

but at least my list of who hates Obama keeps growing.

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Response to graham4anything (Reply #30)

Mon Oct 8, 2012, 12:03 PM

45. I think the poll includes Fri and Sat

Which were after the jobs report. One problem may be that the media are not giving much coverage to the jobs report, whereas they are still fixated on Obama's debate performance, even still today.

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Response to VirginiaTarheel (Reply #45)

Mon Oct 8, 2012, 12:07 PM

48. but if the article is bragging it is even including some before the debate, then it is wrong

 

why do you care what this poll says anyway?

as the debate was 2 days before the 7.8
and the article states some was before the debate
then how could it not be that most was before the 7.8

and in the media, I have heard them discuss mostly the Biden debate.

unless you are fixated on fox I presume???

I also saw peter townshend on 3 shows, and no, he didn't talk about the debate at all

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Response to trailmonkee (Original post)

Mon Oct 8, 2012, 10:38 AM

31. Was this the tracking poll or did they do a stand alone poll.

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Response to trailmonkee (Original post)

Mon Oct 8, 2012, 10:40 AM

32. Ras has the race tied again meaning a gain of 2 points for O

Gallup will have O back up again as well as others and the swing states remain the same. Corporate media want a horse race for the ratings and like Mittens campaign, will lie and lie and lie. Corporate media, corporations and the GOP party don't care about America, and nothing will change that opinion.

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Response to trailmonkee (Original post)

Mon Oct 8, 2012, 10:40 AM

33. this poll

shows that some americans are easily swayed by flash and lies. Nothing new there. Also, we have a PROFIT driven media system where freedom of the 'press', print and electronic, is no longer a viable term. The media needs a horse race. Many of us on here have pointed out that fact. Washington post/Gallup? Please! Yeah there is room for constructive critiques of our President's last debate performance. Yet, short of turning him into a 'bionic' candidate with superhuman strength and energy, give the human a break. He does have a day job.

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Response to heaven05 (Reply #33)

Mon Oct 8, 2012, 10:49 AM

35. THIS ^^^^^

PERFECT!!! Glad to read that someone got it!!

Nothing new there. Also, we have a PROFIT driven media system where freedom of the 'press', print and electronic, is no longer a viable term. The media needs a horse race.


Exactly!!

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Response to LovingA2andMI (Reply #35)

Mon Oct 8, 2012, 02:50 PM

88. if

you are new to du,welcome

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Response to trailmonkee (Original post)

Mon Oct 8, 2012, 10:49 AM

36. I'm not sure these poll numbers should be too worrisome

These polls include samples from all over the country. But what really seems to win the elections are unfortunately the swing states. That's why Andy Borrowitz said "now millions will be spent by the candidates to become President of Ohio". We know how Nebraska will vote and Alabama etc. So polling people in those redder than red states really doesn't make much difference in the outcome. But if he keeps his edge in the swing states even during this time where the media is peeing down their collective leg over this new and improved Romney, then I don't get too worried. I don't like it and it's not good but if he can keep his lead in the swing states, especially Ohio, then I can maintain some sense of calm.

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Response to trailmonkee (Original post)

Mon Oct 8, 2012, 11:50 AM

40. I don't think it'll go down this way a second time.

I thought Obama did very well but i was watching the debate with knowledge of the facts. Next time, he needs to remember his audience isn't always so aware of those pesky "facts" and explain it all as clearly as Clinton did.

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Response to trailmonkee (Original post)

Mon Oct 8, 2012, 11:50 AM

41. Nation of Idiots

I watched that debate and it wasn't as bad as the drooling media has made it out to be. They want it to be close obviously to keep people watching.

Its not like the President said something that would disqualify him from a 2nd term. So what if Romney performed well.

The real shock is that there seem to be people who are so weak in their convictions or who don't know whats going on to such a degree that this debate can suddenly swing their vote from Obama to the other guy. I mean are these the people who go around saying "they are both the same"??

After all this country has gone through after the last 4 years how can there still be people on the sidelines? They must be stupid.

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Response to jzodda (Reply #41)

Mon Oct 8, 2012, 12:11 PM

50. Some people hate both candidates

Some people don't think the country will improve much with either one. They hate both Republicans and Democrats. So they are undecided as to who is the "lesser evil."

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Response to trailmonkee (Original post)

Mon Oct 8, 2012, 12:06 PM

47. I'm confused, Obama is up 49-46 in Gallup today

Why are there two sets of numbers? Rolling vs. Snapshot?

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Response to budkin (Reply #47)

Mon Oct 8, 2012, 12:17 PM

52. Gallup has a seven day rolling poll

showing Obama up three.

In the three days following the debate, the pollsters indicate that each night the result showed a 47-47 tie. So in the Thursday, Friday and Sat. following the debate, the race was tied at 47.

For the whole 7 days, Gallup shows a three pt. lead for Obama but that includes the four days leading up to the debate which includes the day of the debate.

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Response to oswaldactedalone (Reply #52)

Mon Oct 8, 2012, 12:23 PM

55. Actually they say the polling for the three days afterward is a tie

Not that it was a tie each and every day.

This is a small quibble as it does show that the last three days in aggregate were not good. It would have been nice if they gave the three separate results. (It looks from the time series that Friday's polling was the worst suggesting the media reaction amplified the result.

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Response to karynnj (Reply #55)

Mon Oct 8, 2012, 12:42 PM

64. I no longer know where I saw this early this AM

but they noted that the polling had been 47-47 each of the three days.

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Response to oswaldactedalone (Reply #64)

Mon Oct 8, 2012, 01:01 PM

71. I wonder if that was a reporter misstating what was in the Gallup release

or if this was from a Gallup spokesman adding more than was said in the release.

Any way - it is not good.

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Response to oswaldactedalone (Reply #52)

Mon Oct 8, 2012, 12:25 PM

56. Good observation.

Let us see how the daily movement goes since Friday's job numbers.

A number of posters have also rightfully pointed out that Consumer Confidence is way up. These CC polls are the ones to watch, IMHO.

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Response to oswaldactedalone (Reply #52)

Mon Oct 8, 2012, 12:35 PM

58. Ah ok, so it is actually tied... he'll go up again once the jobs numbers take hold

And he does well in the next two debates

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Response to budkin (Reply #47)

Mon Oct 8, 2012, 12:42 PM

66. Notice how they didn't highlight a 3-day version when Obama was blowing Rmoney away

but then suddenly today, they report one. Otherwise what they generally report is the 7-day, where there is no such tie.

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Response to trailmonkee (Original post)

Mon Oct 8, 2012, 12:27 PM

57. No surprise-- Romney managed to undo some of the "painting" at the debate

by lying his %%^ off. This happened even though the paint had been sticking, because its based on Romney's actual misdeeds as CEO. It would have been very difficult for the President to stop that from happening except by mocking him, which carries its own dangers.

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Response to andym (Reply #57)

Mon Oct 8, 2012, 12:42 PM

65. He didn't have to mock him, just be forceful that he changed all his opinions

He had one retort to them, the "never mind" comment. It just wasn't enough.

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Response to trailmonkee (Original post)

Mon Oct 8, 2012, 12:44 PM

67. Obama won,hands down. Mitt was a joke.

People who say 'they're both the same' make me kinda nuts, too.

You go into why they're not and that blank stare comes back at ya. "You mean I should be, like, paying attention?" That stare.

That coal issue where the miners were forced to appear at Mitty's rally here in Ohio has been heating up, might help. An investigation would help out loads.

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Response to demwing (Reply #73)

Mon Oct 8, 2012, 01:39 PM

81. Interesting that nobody seems to be paying attention your post....

...you'd think they would be happy to see these numbers.

Thanks!

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Response to demwing (Reply #73)

Mon Oct 8, 2012, 01:44 PM

83. ^^ THERE IT IS. ^^

Thanks for posting.

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Response to demwing (Reply #73)

Mon Oct 8, 2012, 02:43 PM

86. +1

Thanks for posting! Much better!

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Response to demwing (Reply #73)

Mon Oct 8, 2012, 10:05 PM

113. Thanks Demwing!

I was beginning to hyperventilate.

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Response to trailmonkee (Original post)

Mon Oct 8, 2012, 01:04 PM

74. The don't-vote-let-it-destroy-itself sowers are harvesting another crop. nt

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Response to patrice (Reply #74)

Mon Oct 8, 2012, 01:19 PM

76. amen and hell yes

and when they find that Utopia did not come about when the USA falls, they will be the first demanding our help. Sorry Naderites, I will not be sharing any of my Dog Food with you if youlet Mitt slip through the gates.

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Response to DonCoquixote (Reply #76)

Mon Oct 8, 2012, 01:26 PM

78. I've seen some of them out there, talking about what's next on FB. I wanted to say, but didn't, that

in regards to WHATEVER is next, I'll be working with those whom I am working directly with right now. We won't be needing anyone to turn up suddenly and "show" us the "way", I don't care what label they put on it, thank you very much.

It's frustrating, because I know that plays right into the hands of the horseshit anarchists I see around, but I guess so-be-it, if it comes to that, and we'll just have to see who ends up with the most talented most collaborative resources.

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Response to patrice (Reply #78)

Mon Oct 8, 2012, 02:25 PM

84. amen and here is a hint

Yeah, some of the anarchists may have some presources planned. Whenever I read Ted Rall or Derrick Jannsen, they act like they are ready come monday for covilization to come down, and to start picking what burgesoie pig needs to be executed. Truth be told, their lack of discipline is that which will get them, as no one will want to feed people who throw rtantrums whenever they do not get their way right now.

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Response to DonCoquixote (Reply #84)

Mon Oct 8, 2012, 02:55 PM

89. Right on, that!!! "Lack of discipline" & I've seen that up close & personal. A license to do whateve

is what it amounts to with the perfect justification that any form of order, even knowledge, is tyranny. It's a prescription for ENDLESS tail-chasing that will eventually NEEEEEEED to subject itself to something WITHOUT CHOICE in the matter, because it all just got way tooooooo late. A prescription for fascism.

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Response to patrice (Reply #89)

Mon Oct 8, 2012, 11:54 PM

116. Exactly

The way the Weimar republic kept chasing it's tail until Hitler killed them, or the Mensheviks did with the Bolsheviks.

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Response to trailmonkee (Original post)

Mon Oct 8, 2012, 01:14 PM

75. "Nobody ever went

broke underestimating the intelligence of the American public". H. L. Mencken

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Response to trailmonkee (Original post)

Mon Oct 8, 2012, 01:21 PM

77. "Spreading" - debating technique used by romney not allowed in serious debates.

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Response to Peregrine Took (Reply #79)

Mon Oct 8, 2012, 02:27 PM

85. If so, so be it

Someone deserves to be shitcanned

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Response to trailmonkee (Original post)

Mon Oct 8, 2012, 01:35 PM

80. It's interesting that debate wins are no longer based on truthfulness or facts...

...I wonder if any questions were asked by the pollsters about whether or not those being polled believed either candidate lied?

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Response to OldDem2012 (Reply #80)

Mon Oct 8, 2012, 01:40 PM

82. You nailed this horseshit! The question is how much of the public "mind" does it represent. nt

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Response to trailmonkee (Original post)

Mon Oct 8, 2012, 02:48 PM

87. Don't worry...be happy! Things are going to be just fine.

 

I mean really, that spectacular part time seasonal low wage jobs increase will obviously have a positive effect.

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Response to Safetykitten (Reply #87)

Mon Oct 8, 2012, 03:01 PM

91. I guess you didn't see the actual full Gallup poll, did you?

 

Suck on that!

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Response to Safetykitten (Reply #87)

Mon Oct 8, 2012, 03:08 PM

92. This is about choices. I know people for whom those kinds of jobs ARE their choice IF they can get

Real Value, such as authentic health care, student loan abatement, secure elder years, in exchange for this decision about their earning potential. Tell me the possibility of those real values under President Rongny, compared to those possibilities with President Obama.

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Response to trailmonkee (Original post)

Mon Oct 8, 2012, 03:00 PM

90. You might want to get your facts straight before posting every piece of trash you stumble upon.

 

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Response to trailmonkee (Original post)

Mon Oct 8, 2012, 03:11 PM

93. this is bad - what was O thinking to let Mitt the Shit get away with all those lies?

At first mention of the word "taxes" O should have let Mitt have it for his tax havens and career of tax avoidance and helping other investors avoid, failing to show US his returns, probably failing to pay at all for 10 yrs., and paying at a lower %age than the average worker.

But O was too much of a gentleman. He needs to really let Mitt and the American people hear it next time around.

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Response to wordpix (Reply #93)

Mon Oct 8, 2012, 03:13 PM

94. Looking at the newer polls... looks like the jobs #'s are starting to kick in....

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Response to wordpix (Reply #93)

Mon Oct 8, 2012, 03:20 PM

95. He was so busy not giving Willard what Willard wanted to talk about that he didn't talk about what

Barack should have talked about.

I agree with the first part of that strategy, create no opportunities for Willard to "fix" the stupid evil shit he has said this year, but not the second part of that strategy. As you observe, he should have chosen at least one good taking-off point and pounded Willard fast and hard. Like boxing, you can't just protect your ribs and face and expect to win.

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Response to trailmonkee (Original post)

Mon Oct 8, 2012, 03:38 PM

96. LOL

Yeah right! Always trust the Washington Post and Gallup Poll!

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Response to elleng (Reply #102)

Mon Oct 8, 2012, 05:02 PM

103. looks like it... glad to see the numbers are up.... I am wondering if I should delete the post now?

I don't want to be rude to all those posting comments though?

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Response to trailmonkee (Reply #103)

Mon Oct 8, 2012, 06:08 PM

106. Dunno; nice of you to think about it.

You could 'edit' your post, and try to get it attention with caps.
Edit 'headline?'


Here's one: http://www.democraticunderground.com/1014259947

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Response to elleng (Reply #106)

Mon Oct 8, 2012, 09:39 PM

112. Good suggestion, I'll go ahead and do that, thank you

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Response to trailmonkee (Reply #112)

Mon Oct 8, 2012, 11:14 PM

114. Good work.

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Response to elleng (Reply #114)

Mon Oct 8, 2012, 11:16 PM

115. thanks

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Response to trailmonkee (Reply #103)

Mon Oct 8, 2012, 06:17 PM

109. Just EDIT the initial post and label it UPDATED...

 

with new figures, just be honest, and stop wasting time taking people's attention on the Latest Breaking News forum with OLD news.

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Response to DavidL (Reply #109)

Mon Oct 8, 2012, 09:38 PM

111. I posted this early this morning when he was new new...

I thought your comment was a little unkind.. There was a good way to another poster recommended I can update the thread and link to another updated news story in order for people to not get confused, and get upset, I'll go ahead and do that

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Response to trailmonkee (Reply #103)

Mon Oct 8, 2012, 08:36 PM

110. Just Edit the post, and change "Gallup" to "Pew"

I bet that only a few would notice.

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