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Thu Sep 6, 2012, 08:17 AM

The ADP National Employment Report August 2012

Source: ADP Payroll Services

August 2012 Report

Employment in the U.S. nonfarm private business sector increased by 201,000 from July to August, on a seasonally adjusted basis. The estimated gain from June to July was revised up from the initial estimate of 163,000 to 173,000. Employment in the private, service-providing sector expanded 185,000 in August, up from 156,000 in July. Employment in the private, goods-producing sector added 16,000 jobs in August. Manufacturing employment rose 3,000, following an increase of 6,000 in July.

Read more: http://www.adpemploymentreport.com/pdf/FINAL_Release_August_12.pdf



This is a big increase. I heard on the radio this morning that an increase of 149,000 was expected.

See also:

http://www.adpemploymentreport.com/

http://www.adpemploymentreport.com/pdf/FINAL_Report_August_12.pdf

The Bureau of Labor Statistics will release its numbers on Friday at 8:30 a.m. Same Bat-time, same Bat-channel.

The ADP National Employment Report July 2012

So how many jobs must be created every month to have an effect on the unemployment rate? There's an app for that.

http://www.frbatlanta.org/chcs/calculator/index.cfm
Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta Jobs Calculator™

Link to June's BLS report, which is chock-full of links to previous ADP and BLS reports:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/1014160067
Payroll employment continues to edge up in June (+80,000); jobless rate unchanged (8.2%)

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Reply The ADP National Employment Report August 2012 (Original post)
mahatmakanejeeves Sep 2012 OP
wilt the stilt Sep 2012 #1
durablend Sep 2012 #2
ProgressiveEconomist Sep 2012 #4
dmallind Sep 2012 #3

Response to mahatmakanejeeves (Original post)

Thu Sep 6, 2012, 08:31 AM

1. Mitt's response

"ruh roh"

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Response to mahatmakanejeeves (Original post)

Thu Sep 6, 2012, 08:51 AM

2. Could BLS show the opposite?

Good news but still bothers me there's going to be a jobs report practically right before the election. That's going to be the most important one.

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Response to durablend (Reply #2)

Thu Sep 6, 2012, 11:57 AM

4. It's possible but unlikely IMO. The biggest difference between the ADP

and BLS is that the ADP survey overrepresents companies who outsource routine HR paperwork to ADP. If these tend to be larger companies rather than the smaller companies properly represented in the unbiased BLS survey, the BLS monthly change might be even better than the ADP monthly change. When economies start to turn around, it's much easier for small companies under 20 employees to increase their workforces by 5 percent than for large companies to increase their workforces by 5 percent.

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Response to mahatmakanejeeves (Original post)

Thu Sep 6, 2012, 11:33 AM

3. My guess 130k+ 8.2 nt

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