ADP Private Payrolls Add 147,000 Workers in October

[mahatmakanejeeves]

Source: The Wall Street Journal.

ADP Private Payrolls Add 147,000 Workers in October

Economists had expected an increase of 170,000

By Austen Hufford

[email protected]
http://twitter.com/austenhufford
http://facebook.com/austen.hufford

Nov. 2, 2016 8:45 a.m. ET

Private U.S. employers continued to hire at a solid clip in October, another sign the nation’s labor market remains strong even as the increase was the lowest since May and below average for the year.

Firms across the country added 147,000 workers to their ranks last month, according to payroll processor Automatic Data Processing Inc. and forecasting firm Moody’s Analytics. Economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal expected an increase of 170,000.

The September total was revised to 202,000 from 154,000. The ADP report is based on private payroll data in addition to lagged government data. ... So far this year, private employers have added 175,000 jobs on average.
....

ADP’s report comes ahead of Friday’s employment situation report. Economists expect the Bureau of Labor Statistics to report an increase of 173,000 in October payrolls, up from a 156,000 September gain. Unemployment is expected to fall to 4.8% from 5%

Read more: http://www.wsj.com/articles/adp-private-payrolls-add-147-000-workers-in-october-1478090741

---

Most sources were downbeat about the news. Such as:

ADP says private sector adds fewest jobs in five months in October

Published: Nov 2, 2016 9:17 a.m. ET

Pace of job growth appears to be slowing, ADP says

By Greg Robb
Senior economics reporter

Employers added 147,000 private sector jobs last month, the slowest pace since May, ADP Inc. reported.

The increase in October was below expectations. Economists polled by Econoday had forecast an October gain of 170,000 jobs compared with the original estimate of 154,000 for September. ... On Wednesday, ADP sharply revised its estimate for September job growth up to 202,000.

Analysts use ADP’s data to get a feeling for the Labor Department’s employment report, which will be released Friday and covers government jobs in addition to the private sector.

{Snip a chart that I can't copy.}

Economists polled by MarketWatch expect the government’s report for September to show that nonfarm payroll accelerated to 169,000 jobs, a bit better than the 151,000 pace in the prior month.
....

Greg Robb is a senior reporter for MarketWatch in Washington. Follow him on Twitter @grobb2000.

http://twitter.com/grobb2000.

[Ron Obvious]

1. That number should always be compared to population growth

And that employment figure means we're barely (or not even) breaking even.

[bhikkhu]

2. Population growth isn't what it used to be

At one time the estimate was that we had to add 150k jobs per month to keep up with population growth, but demographics have changed considerably. Current estimate is that we need to add about 80k jobs per month. The biggest changes are that baby boomers are leaving the workforce, the US birthrate has been declining steadily, and immigration has been declining steadily for 20 years.

https://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache:dOjodhvFTOIJ:https://www.chicagofed.org/~/media/publications/chicago-fed-letter/2013/cfljuly2013-312-pdf.pdf+&cd=10&hl=en&ct=clnk&gl=us&client=ubuntu

Note also that the decline in labor force participation has also been long-predicted, and inevitable, due also to baby boomers leaving the workforce.

[InkAddict]

4. Some baby boomers still need to work due to recession

and other social issues. Government purposely and maliciously conspiring with corporate "people" to create the absolute poverty of its senior citizens.

[bhikkhu]

10. Anecdotally, I know many seniors have retired due to a good stock market

When it tanked in the recession it took a lot of 401k's with it and many people had to put off their plans. But things have pretty thoroughly turned around in that area.

As far as purposeful and malicious conspiracies, one need only look at the spoken intentions of republicans controlling both houses of congress for the last 6 years.

[Yo_Mama]

6. Unemployment rate has risen since May

St Louis Fed Unemployment rate series.


It will be interesting to see the October employment report. I saw an industry note that retail & restaurants were hiring early this year, so maybe it will look very good when seasonally adjusted.

[progree]

8. Since May the Labor Force Participation Rate has risen from 62.6% to 62.9%

http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS11300000

Even though about 10,000 boomers are retiring every day.

Anyway, the recent rise in the unemployment rate is because more people are coming off the sidelines and looking for work (jobless people are not counted as officially unemployed unless they looked for work sometime in the past 4 weeks)

[Ron Obvious]

3. According to the US Census bureau...

The US population is growing at 3.3 million people annually, which is 275,000 per month.

[progree]

7. A more up-to-date figure is 208 K/month. But the age 16-64 popn is increasing by only 100 K/mo

Last edited Wed Nov 2, 2016, 04:37 PM - Edit history (1)

Your link:

http://www.susps.org/overview/birthrates.html
26. U.S. Census Bureau 1990 and 2000 decennial census. (The average annual U.S. growth during the 1990s was 3.27 million. This result is arrived at by subtracting the 1990 Census count (248,709,873) from the 2000 Census count (281,421,906) and dividing by 10.)

Here is something more up-to-date on the U.S. population, both are October 2016 estimates:

http://www.multpl.com/us-population-growth-rate/table/by-year
0.77% per year
http://www.multpl.com/united-states-population/
323.41 million
Annual growth of U.S. population = 0.0077 * 323.41 = 2.49 million ==> 207,500/month

That of course includes children, and the rapidly growing elderly population.

As for the civilian non-institutionalized population age 16+ and age 65+ from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (so we're not counting children)

There apparently is only non-seasonally adjusted data (NSA) for the age 65+ population. So I will use NSA data throughout for consistency. Comparing September of this year to September of last year will eliminate the need for a seasonal adjustment factor since we are comparing a month to the same month the previous year.

Civilian non-institutionalized (CNI) population age 16+, NSA = http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNU00000000
From September 2015 to September 2016 it increased by 2,766,000 (230,500/month average)

Civilian non-institutionalized (CNI) population age 65+, NSA = http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNU00000097
From September 2015 to September 2016 it increased by 1,570,000 (131,000/month average)

Subtracting the two, the age 16-64 CNI population increased by 1,196,000 ( 99,667/month average )

Interesting that the age 65+ population is increasing faster than the age 16-64 population.

Yes, some age 65+ people do work and need/want to work. On the other hand, many age 16-22, for example, are in school. And some age 55-64 are retired by choice -- I fit that category. Some are non-labor force spouses by choice.

[bhikkhu]

12. And a very high number of 18-24 years olds are in college

It was as high as 70% (during the recession), which was a historical record, but it has declined somewhat since the job market has gotten much better. In any case, the rise of college attendance rates has had a significant impact on the labor participation rate. At one time, most kids graduated high school and went right to work; now most kids graduate high school and head straight to college.

[LeftyMom]

11. That's low for seasonal hiring: Oct 2015 added 182,000 private sector jobs per ADP.

You'd expect a huge bump in seasonal hiring in October with retailers, delivery services, etc. Most of those will be freshly unemployed in January, the lucky ones will be kept on part time with no hours to speak of until the March tax refund retail bump.

[progree]

13. The ADP numbers are seasonally adjusted. As are the BLS job numbers coming out Friday

Last edited Sat Jan 18, 2020, 03:39 AM - Edit history (5)

[] Formulas:
@@@@@@@@@@@@@

{#} Formulas


All the below terms apply to the civilian non-institutional population age 16 and over. So for example, the terms below like "unemployed", "labor force", "population", "not in labor force" and so on do not include anyone under 16, nor anyone in the military, in prison, or in nursing homes, to name a few institutionalized populations.

All of the below statistics can be found at the top of Table A ( http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.a.htm ) and Table A-1 ( http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t01.htm )

Unemployed: Jobless but who have actively sought work in the last 4 weeks. This is the numerator in the U-3 measure of the unemployment rate.

Labor force = Employed + Unemployed. ` Think of it this way: Employed + "looking", where "looking" here means have actively sought work in the last 4 weeks. (also called the Civilian Labor Force in Table A).

Population is the civilian non-institutional population age 16 and over

Population = Labor Force + Not in Labor Force

Not in Labor Force = Population - Labor Force

Unemployment Rate = Unemployed / Labor Force . This is the official (U-3) measure

Labor Force Participation Rate (LFPR) = Labor Force / Population

Employment To Population Ratio (ETPR) aka Employment Rate = Employed / Population


The BLS timeseries numbers - e.g. Population is at http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS10000000
[font face = courier new]
Seas Adj ` `Not Seas Adj
LNS10000000 LNU00000000 Population (seas adj and seas not adju are identical)

LNS11000000 LNU01000000 Labor Force

LNS12000000 LNU02000000 Employed

LNS13000000 LNU03000000 Unemployed

LNS11300000 LNU01300000 Labor Force Participation Rate (LFPR)

LNS14000000 LNU04000000 Unemployment Rate

LNS13327709 LNU03327709 U-6 Unemployment Rate (not included in any of the formulas above, but here for quick reference


[] Unemployment Measures (U-1 through U-6)
@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@

{#} Unemployment Measures (U-1 through U-6)

[font color = red]I'm still working on formatting this section[/font]

http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t15.htm
Definitions: http://www.bls.gov/lau/stalt.htm

The official concept of unemployment (as measured in the CPS by U-3 includes all jobless persons who are available to take a job and have actively sought work in the past 4 weeks.

U-1 through U-3: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS13025670&series_id=LNS14023621&series_id=LNS14000000

U-4 through U-6: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS13327707&series_id=LNS13327708&series_id=LNS13327709

In the below, I also include the Not seasonably adjusted equivalent series number at the end like this, for example for U-1: (NSA: LNU03025670)

Numbers in () are July 2016 numbers

U-1 (2.0%) http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS13025670 (Seas) Unemployed 15 Weeks & over, as a percent of the civilian labor force (NSA: LNU03025670)

U-2 (2.3%) http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS14023621 (Seas) Unemployment Rate - Job losers and persons who completed temporary jobs, as a percent of the civilian labor force; (NSA: LNU04023621)

U-3 (4.9%) http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS14000000 (Seas) total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force (this is the official unemployment rate, and the "headline" unemployment rate used in the media. To be counted as unemployed by this measure, one must be jobless and have actively sought work in the past 4 weeks); (NSA: LNU04000000)

U-4 (5.2%) http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS13327707 (Seas) Total unemployed plus discouraged workers, as a percent of the civilian labor force plus discouraged workers (NSA: LNU03327707)

U-5 (6.0%) http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS13327708 (Seas) Total unemployed, plus discouraged workers, plus all other marginally attached workers (in other words: total unemployed plus all marginally attached workers), as a percent of the civilian labor force plus all marginally attached workers (NSA: LNU03327708)

U-6 (9.7%) http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS13327709 (Seas) Total unemployed, plus all marginally attached workers plus total employed part time for economic reasons, as a percent of all civilian labor force plus all marginally attached workers (NSA: LNU03327709)

See U-1 thru U-6 together, each line a different color (scroll down to Chart # 20 ): http://www.bls.gov/web/empsit/cps_charts.pdf

Labor force: are Employed people + Unemployed people by the U-3 definition above (jobless but have actively sought work in the past 4 weeks). I think of the labor force as "Employed + Lookers".

Table A-16 http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t16.htm
Sorry: this data is only available as NOT Seasonally Adjusted

The indentation in the table below indicate subsets. For example, the "Persons who currently want a job" is a subset of "Total not in labor force", so this is not all people who currently want a job, but rather people not in the labor force who currently want a job. By parsing the definition of labor force, the below "Persons who currently want a job" category boils down to those jobless people who want a job but have not looked in the last 4 weeks (because you are counted as being in the labor force if you have looked in the last 4 weeks)

[font face = courier new]
Total Not in Labor Force and its subsets
Total not in the labor force Total: LNU05000000 Men: LNU05000001 Women: LNU05000002
...Persons who currently want a job Total: LNU05026639 Men: LNU05026640 Women: LNU05026641
......Marginally attached to the labor force Total: LNU05026642 Men: LNU05026643 Women: LNU05026644
.........Discouraged workers Total: LNU05026645 Men: LNU05026646 Women: LNU05026647
.........Other persons marginally attached to the labor force Total: LNU05026648 Men: LNU05026649 Women: LNU05026650
......Wants a job but hasn't looked in the last 12 months: persons who currently want a job minus the marginally attached
...Doesn't want a job, jobless (Progree calc)


July 2016: (in thousands), NOT SEASONALLY ADJUSTED:
Table A-1 gives seasonally adjusted and not seasonally adjusted for the first 3 below. Table A-16 gives only not seasonally adjusted for the last 3 items below (there are no seasonally adjusted numbers for these anywhere). For consistency I am showing all of the below as NOT seasonally adjusted. Below are in THOUSANDS, NOT Seasonally Adjusted
.... 8,267 Unemployed (the officially unemployed -- have looked for work in the last 4 weeks)
.... 92,916 Not in labor force (jobless, haven't looked for work in the last 4 weeks)
....... 6,244 Persons who currently want a job (6.7% of those not in the labor force)
.......... 1,950 Marginally attached (want a job, looked in last 12 months but not last 4 weeks)
.............. 591 discouraged workers (those marginally attached who also cite in some form that don't think jobs are available)
.............. 1,359 other marginally attached persons (cites reasons such as family responsibilities, ill health,....)
.......... 4,294 Wants a job but hasn't looked in the last 12 months (Progree calc)
....... 86,672 Jobless and doesn't want a job, (Progree calc)
[/font]

The indentation in the table below indicate subsets

Persons who currently want a job is a subset of those NOT in the labor force (if you looked for work in the last 4 weeks, you are counted as being in the labor force, so "Persons who currently want a job" in the above table are people who say they want a job but have not looked in the past 4 weeks).

Marginally attached workers are those who want a job and are available for work, and looked in past 12 months but not in past 4 weeks) - Table A-16 http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t16.htm - 1.950 million, down by 23,000 from a year ago (not seas adj)

Discouraged workers are a subset of marginally attached workers. They want and are available for work, and looked in past 12 months but not in past 4 weeks. Additionally, unlike some marginally attached workers, they said they didn't look for work because they don't think jobs are available for them - Table A-16 http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t16.htm - 591,000, down by 77,000 from a year ago (not seas adj)

Other persons marginally attached to the labor force - it’s the other subset of marginally attached workers. It is all marginally attached workers except for Discouraged workers. Includes those who did not actively look for work in the prior 4 weeks for such reasons as school or family responsibilities, ill health, and transportation problems, as well as a number for whom reason for nonparticipation was not determined. - Table A-16 http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t16.htm -

[] Other economic reports, e.g. Housing Starts, ..
@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@

{#} Other Economic Reports, e.g. Housing Starts,...

{} Housing Starts, Building Permits, Commerce Dept (odd that the website is census.gov)
http://www.census.gov/construction/nrc/pdf/newresconst.pdf
http://www.census.gov/starts
Yo Mama discussion of February 2015's figures (highly analytical, excellent) http://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1014&pid=1041722

{} Retail Sales - U.S. Dept of Commerce (yes, they are seasonally adjusted too)
https://www.census.gov/retail/index.html
https://www.census.gov/retail/marts/www/marts_current.pdf

{} Census Bureau Economic Indicators
Something to explore some day: http://www.census.gov/economic-indicators/

{} Net worth Households and Nonprofit Organizations, Federal Reserve survey
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/the-federal-reserve-has-good-news-for-hillary-clinton-195941999.html

FRED: Households and Nonprofit Organizations; Net Worth, Level (TNWBSHNO) - This is *NOT* inflation adjusted
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/TNWBSHNO

Doug Short - Households and non-profit net worth
# Nominal
# Real ("real" means inflation-adjusted)
# Real per capita
# All these graphs are below, including with exponential regression lines
# Sadly, no indication of how much of the wealth is held by say the bottom 90%. So while it looks great, it doesn't tell you anything about its distribution
http://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/Household-Net-Worth

{} See EF-9 Incomes and Inequality section for many more

[progree]

13. Test /nt