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Tue May 22, 2012, 07:54 PM

CBO: Taxmageddon would throw U.S. back into recession

Source: Washington Post

Tax hikes and spending cuts set to take effect in January would suck $607 billion out of the economy next year, plunging the nation at least briefly back into recession, the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office said Tuesday.

Unless lawmakers act, the economy is likely to contract in the first half of 2013 at an annualized rate of 1.3 percent, the CBO said, before returning to 2.3 percent growth later in the year.

Canceling those tax and spending policies would protect the recovery in the short run and encourage more vibrant growth, around 4.4 percent, in 2013, the CBO said. However, unless lawmakers adopt policies that would reduce budget deficits by a comparable amount down the road, the CBO said, the national debt would continue to climb, imperiling future economic growth.

The report, “Economic Effects of Reducing the Fiscal Restraint That Is Scheduled to Occur in 2013,” comes as policymakers are bracing for the most consequential battle over government tax and spending policies in years. The George W. Bush-era tax cuts are set to expire on Dec. 31, along with a payroll tax cut proposed by President Obama. Meanwhile, sharp cuts are scheduled to hit the Pentagon and other federal agencies to meet a deal cut during last summer’s showdown over the nation’s debt limit.

Read more: http://www.washingtonpost.com/business/economy/cbo-taxmageddon-would-throw-us-back-into-recession/2012/05/22/gIQAblvliU_story.html



Thom Hartmann had a debate with a Heritage Foundation analyst about Taxmageddon. It appears that Heritage coined that neologism with a policy brief from early Apr. 2012: "Taxmageddon: Massive Tax Increase Coming in 2013".

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Reply CBO: Taxmageddon would throw U.S. back into recession (Original post)
alp227 May 2012 OP
Swede Atlanta May 2012 #1
starroute May 2012 #2
TheWraith May 2012 #4
starroute May 2012 #9
TheWraith May 2012 #10
AlbertCat May 2012 #11
freshwest May 2012 #7
onehandle May 2012 #3
freshwest May 2012 #8
DearAbby May 2012 #5
Fearless May 2012 #6
Iliyah May 2012 #12
DallasNE May 2012 #13
sofa king May 2012 #16
magic59 May 2012 #14
underpants May 2012 #15
Trillo May 2012 #17
The Magistrate May 2012 #18
Posteritatis May 2012 #19

Response to alp227 (Original post)

Tue May 22, 2012, 08:02 PM

1. Let me predict.............

how the GOP will respond, if at all, to this report....

(1) The sky is falling, we cannot let the Bush tax cuts expire, at least not for the rich ones, cuz they are creating millions of jobs (at minimum wage)

(2) We can reduce the spending cuts but only for the military. We still want to eviscerate Social Security Medicare, Medicaid and anything that actually benefits a live human being.

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Response to alp227 (Original post)

Tue May 22, 2012, 08:04 PM

2. So is this just a ploy to protect the Bush tax cuts?

The involvement of the Heritage Foundation suggests that it is.

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Response to starroute (Reply #2)

Tue May 22, 2012, 08:05 PM

4. The Heritage Foundation has nothing to do with the Congressional Budget Office. nt

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Response to TheWraith (Reply #4)

Tue May 22, 2012, 08:21 PM

9. No, but they're the ones calling it Taxmaggedon and stirring up panic

The CBO report amounts to saying that the currently mandated mix of tax hikes and budget cuts could set off another recession.

How that is dealt with is a matter of choice. For example, one possibility is letting the Bush tax cuts expire and spending the money on infrastructure.

But the Heritage Foundation is clearly out to convince people that anything other than keeping things the way they are now (with the presumable exception of cutting entitlements) would be disastrous.

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Response to starroute (Reply #9)

Tue May 22, 2012, 08:31 PM

10. "Taxmageddon" is the Washington Post's headline.

The CBO isn't making any argument except that the currently slated policies for next year would provoke another short recession.

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Response to starroute (Reply #9)

Tue May 22, 2012, 08:31 PM

11. anything other than keeping things the way they are now

Exactly.

Of course keeping things the way they are now will also cause a recession.




We know what to do. The solution is not elusive. Tax those who can afford it. Give those who cannot a break. Invest in infrastructure ... which cannot be outsourced overseas. Cut military waste.

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Response to starroute (Reply #2)

Tue May 22, 2012, 08:14 PM

7. I'd say so... but is the CBO under their control as well?

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Response to alp227 (Original post)

Tue May 22, 2012, 08:04 PM

3. Forget taxing the 1%. Tax Republicans. Track them. Tax them. nt

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Response to onehandle (Reply #3)

Tue May 22, 2012, 08:17 PM

8. Do them almost like Rush ordered the minions to do liberals: Hunt them down with dogs. Instead...

Of shooting them, leave a few as an example of fossils?


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Response to alp227 (Original post)

Tue May 22, 2012, 08:11 PM

5. Taxing the wealthy, while keeping the tax cuts for the middle class

Would not plunge the country into recession. Bullshit. Just another way for the wealthy to scream "It's the end of the world as we know it"

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Response to alp227 (Original post)

Tue May 22, 2012, 08:12 PM

6. Sounds almost like Democrats were right and Republicans...

Were stupid.

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Response to alp227 (Original post)

Tue May 22, 2012, 08:35 PM

12. Then no cuts then

but the rich needs to pay their fair share.

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Response to alp227 (Original post)

Tue May 22, 2012, 11:17 PM

13. But Nobody Is Talking About Either Scenario

Plus, it is not an either or situation.

Why wasn't the CBO asked to score the third option? What is that 3rd option? Keeping the tax cuts for low and medium income taxpayers while letting the Bush tax cuts for the top 2% to expire while following closely to the Simpson-Bowles recommendations on spending plus the defense savings from winding down the Afghanistan War.

Lastly, the CBO report has no mention on the impact on jobs and that makes the report somewhat meaningless.

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Response to DallasNE (Reply #13)

Wed May 23, 2012, 07:49 AM

16. And the fourth option: total destruction of the GOP

All we have to do to show the American voter who is on their side and who isn't is to split the tax cut extensions into two bills, one for the rich and one for the middle class.

The GOP is only there in DC to do one thing, make rich people richer. To protect that, Republicans will be forced to block and hold hostage tax cut extensions for the middle class, in an attempt to pass the cut they really care about.

From that point, no matter what the outcome, voters will know and remember that it was the Republicans who tried to raise taxes on the middle class, and tried to take money out of the wallets of something like 70% of all voters, to keep people none of us know personally fabulously wealthy.

I expect the Democrats in Congress to get that ball rolling in only a few weeks.

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Response to alp227 (Original post)

Tue May 22, 2012, 11:19 PM

14. Tax the rich at above 34%

 

and cut military industrial welfare and you will see the biggest economic boom since the 50's. No need to cut programs for the poor.

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Response to alp227 (Original post)

Wed May 23, 2012, 07:02 AM

15. Haven't watched the viedo but the articles I have read on this must be leaving something out

They all seem to say that ALL of the Bush tax cuts have to left alone when in fact the CBO report probably only means the middle class tax cuts. There were middle class cuts in the Bush plan (not as large as Obama's of course) and no reasonable economist nor any historical evidence would suggest that the tax cut for the top did anything to create jobs OR weren't devastating to the budget/debt - in fact the top cuts were meant to create the debt "starve the beast".

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Response to alp227 (Original post)

Wed May 23, 2012, 01:43 PM

17. Probably depends on who the taxes and benefit cuts hit

We could slash corporate welfare, and tax the rich, ...
or
We could slash food assistance, welfare, child care, schools, and increase low-income taxes and fees.

So, it seems a matter of priorities.

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Response to alp227 (Original post)

Wed May 23, 2012, 02:38 PM

18. Still Best, Sir, To Grasp The Nettle And Restore the Former Tax Rates

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Response to alp227 (Original post)

Wed May 23, 2012, 03:54 PM

19. "Taxmageddon?" Oy. (nt)

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