Argentina to go to polls in first ever presidential run-off

[Little Tich]

Source: BBC

Argentina will go to the polls on Sunday for a run-off election - the first in the country's history - after neither presidential candidate managed to win the initial vote outright.

Daniel Scioli, the governor of Buenos Aires province, is up against Mauricio Macri, the city's mayor.

On the eve of the vote, centre-left candidate Mr Scioli lags behind his centre-right rival in the polls.

Mr Scioli was marginally ahead in the first round, with 36.7% to 34.5%.

Read more: http://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-34893104

[forest444]

1. Basically, Scioli is to Gore what Macri is to Bush.

Scioli, a centrist running on the social-democratic Front for Victory ticket widely credited with revitalizing Argentina since they were first elected in 2003, has a good personal reputation and a fairly strong economy (2.8% growth, near-record consumer confidence) on his side. He's also supported by Pope Francis, who's asked him to "fight savage capitalism" in his campaign for the presidency.

But Macri has the local Catholic hierarchy (particularly the Opus Dei), big business, and big media on his side - not to mention a relentless and well-financed Limbaugh-style attack machine. Some of this is being financed by GOP megadonor Paul Singer (the Cayman Islands vulture fundie who bought Argentine bonds from a reseller for $48 million, and now wants a billion).

Since the three largest media groups in the country are right-wing, Macri also benefits from a veritable media bulletproofing to the point that his advisers can openly boast about their plans to impose shock doctrine policies and know that most undecided voters will either not have heard of said plans or simply not believe it. Voter fatigue, moreover, has set in to some extent after 12 years of the same party in office.

These new policies would include, but are not limited to: quashing collective bargaining, curtailing benefits and public mortgage programs, cutting health and education, privatizing and outsourcing, and a sharp devaluation which would bring a windfall to the rich at everyone else's expense (a massive jump in prices -already in evidence due to the mere "expectation" of a devaluation- and a deep recession). Many are the same neocon and IMF recipes that caused the country's much-publicized collapse in 2001.

Argentina resembles the U.S. ethnically and culturally, and has a lot of the same political problems with the right the U.S. has: many white, middle-class voters will support the far right - even at their loss - because they see progressives as people who coddle "lazy blacks" (sound familiar?). That, of course, works in Macri's favor.

If Macri loses tomorrow, watch for cries of "fraud" - in fact, a real chorus of them. Which is ironic since the only one who's been attempting voter fraud in Argentina, is Macri himself. http://www.democraticunderground.com/10026942187

No progressive should want to have anything to do with Macri and his race-baiting or Bushonomics. Argentina's own history leaves no doubt that returning to such policies would be truly harmful to Argentina - or any country, really.

[Ghost Dog]

2. Argentina election could spell end for 'Kirchnerism'

... Coming from behind, Buenos Aires mayor Mauricio Macri of the centre-right Cambiemos (Let’s Change) party, is at least 5 percentage points ahead of the Fernández candidate, Daniel Scioli, according to latest polls.

However, the polls were unreliable in the first round, which Scioli was expected to win comfortably. To the shock of many, however, Scioli garnered a lead of just 2.5 points, and has since struggled to secure the support of the eliminated candidates and undecided voters, leaving him with ground to make up on the final day.

The consequences of a change could be enormous. Macri has promised to introduce more pro-business policies, reduce inflation, cut deals with foreign creditors and realign Argentina’s foreign policy away from Venezuela and Iran and closer to the US. He has also indicated that he will adopt a less confrontational stance over the Falkland Islands.

Instead, he has promised better management to improve living conditions. At the close of his campaign in distant Humahuaca, Macri told the crowd he would “work every day for you to have a better life”.

Scioli, by contrast, held his final rally in the Buenos Aires stronghold of La Matanza, declaring himself the enemy of the “savage capitalism” represented by his rival...

/... http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/nov/22/argentina-election-second-round-vote-could-spell-end-for-kirchnerism

[forest444]

3. Which on Macri's part is absurd to the point of the Orwellian.

Besides the fact he's supported by that very sizable share of the electorate obsessed with "government giveaways to lazy indians," that he personally tried to impose Robert Kiyosaki's and Ayn Rand's garbage as compulsory reading material in all Buenos Aires public schools (while cutting their budget by 25% in real terms, btw), and that his own advisers have promised to dismantle the state and cripple unions, he himself as Mayor has done anything but “working every day for you (the poor) to have a better life.”

In Argentina, public education and health spending is a local responsibility, subsidized by the Federal Government. Each province and the City of Buenos Aires receive an annual block grant for these needs - but each governor (and the B.A. mayor) have considerable discretion over said funds, so Macri spends only about half of what he's earmarked (or as little as 15%, as in the case of public housing) and the rest on private school subsidies, ad blitzes, and on newly outsourced/privatized work and services.

Most of which goes to family friends of his such as the Caputos, Cartellones, Calcaterras, and Plazas, who, once awarded these privatized contracts, usually cut corners while doubling the cost to the city. Millions more in "city contracts" go to media hacks such as Fox sportscaster Fernando Niembro and Paula Uhalde, head of the Brown Shirt-esque "Special Projects Unit" (spies, thugs, and internet trolls).

And this is merely as a mayor. Should he take office, he (or rather, his people) have already announced plans for a sharp, massive devaluation. That would trigger an immediate jump in prices - as much as 50 or 60% - and most likely a spiral into financial collapse as well, as has been the case every time in the past.

Wholesale prices, in fact, are already beginning to soar merely on the expectation Macri might win.

So why does Macri want to do this? Because for him and the rest of the elite (Macri's family built a $2 billion net worth largely on padded contracts in the '70s and insider trading in the '80s), it would mean an instant windfall: their dollars would suddenly buy twice as much. Neat, huh?

[Ghost Dog]

5. Yep. Exactly the neolib austerity/disaster-capitalist agenda,

coming now to Argentina, I am very sorry to say.

Are the elections fair?

[forest444]

6. It is, and they are.

Of course, it remains to be seen how much of that agenda President Macri will be able to - or ultimately want to - enact. Images of the helicopter carrying the last conservative stooge that insisted on the IMF playbook have got to be pretty fresh on his mind.

As for the elections, I'm glad to say that yes: by all accounts they were fair, with zero irregularities, and a twice hand-counted, paper-only tabulation process. Turnout, moreover, was 80% - which is high considering that Argentina hasn't enforced its compulsory voting laws since 2001. It would be the highest turnout since 1999.

That said, fair elections may indeed be a thing of the past if Macri gets his way: http://www.democraticunderground.com/10026942187

[muriel_volestrangler]

4. Macri Poised to Become Argentina's President, Exit Polls Show

Argentina’s opposition candidate Mauricio Macri, who has vowed broad economic reforms, was poised to become the country’s next president, exit polls showed on Sunday.

About 32 million Argentines were registered to participate in the election that pitted the two-time mayor of Buenos Aires city Macri against the ruling party’s Daniel Scioli, who has served two-terms as the governor of Buenos Aires province. Polls closed at 6 p.m. local time with the first official results expected at 7:30 p.m., according to the National Electoral Council.
...
Exit polls by C5N, canal 26 and A24 all gave the win to Macri, who consistently led in the opinion polls before the vote. They didn’t give percentages.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-11-22/argentines-to-vote-in-first-runoff-as-opposition-leads-in-polls

Polls closed about half an hour before this post, I think.

[forest444]

7. Thanks for the report, Muriel. It was pretty close.

With 98% of precincts in Macri led with 51.5%, with Scioli garnering 48.5%. Turnout was 81%, which meant that around 26 million people voted.

http://www.resultados.gob.ar/balotage/dat99/DPR99999A.htm

Scioli actually won in 16 of 23 provinces, with Macri taking 7 and the City of Buenos Aires. Macri, however, really ran up the score in the City of Buenos Aires (65%) and Córdoba Province (71%) - two relatively high-income districts and bastions of conservatism (as well as racism) in Argentina. Macri's margin in Córdoba was in fact so high (over 900,000) that it alone accounted for his victory tonight (which was by 700,000 or so).

The night's real winners, though, were the three big media groups in Argentina, which after 7 years of relentless, Limbaugh-style attacks, finally has something to show for them other than damaging Argentina's reputation abroad.

Well done, señores. See you in the Macrisis a year or two from now.

[Dawson Leery]

8. If Macri gets his way, he will be heading out of the Presidential Palace

on a Helicopter with loud and violent crowds on the street.

[forest444]

9. A real 'Macrisis' - unless he restrains himself from enacting too much from the IMF playbook.

The pretentious little dolt probably doesn't know it stands for International Misery Fund. God help Argentina.