Hillary Clinton's Lead Over NH Democrats Shrinking, Poll Finds

[Comrade Grumpy]

Source: CNN

Washington (CNN)Hillary Clinton's sizable lead among Democrats in New Hampshire has been trimmed to single digits as Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders makes a strong push in a state that narrowly broke Clinton's way in 2008 to keep her campaign alive.

According to a new CNN/WMUR New Hampshire Primary poll, Clinton holds an 8-point edge over Sanders, with 43% behind Clinton and 35% backing Sanders. Vice President Joe Biden clocks in at 8%, with 2% or less supporting Martin O'Malley, Jim Webb and Lincoln Chafee.

The poll marks a significant tightening of the contest since the May Granite State Poll, which included Elizabeth Warren on its list of candidates. In that poll, Clinton stood at 51%, with Warren at 20% and Sanders at 13%.

poll seem to explain much of Sanders' gain. Looking at the demographic breakdown in primary preferences, men, younger voters and liberals appear to have moved broadly toward Sanders in the last month. Among men, 52% backed Clinton in the May survey, that fell to 32% in the new poll, while 47% now support Sanders. Likewise, among liberals, a 51% to 16% Clinton advantage is now a 48% to 41% Sanders edge. And among voters under age 50, Clinton has fallen from majority support to a near even split in the new poll, 37% back Clinton while 39% favor Sanders.

<snip>

Read more: http://www.cnn.com/2015/06/25/politics/hillary-clinton-bernie-sanders-martin-omalley-new-hampshire-poll/index.html

---

You were saying?

[Comrade Grumpy]

1. Hillary 43%, Bernie 35% n/t

[lamp_shade]

2. Isn't this the same state that has Trump at #2?

[restorefreedom]

4. that doesn.t count

repub primary voters are generally wingnut wackos. and nh has a rep of doing their own thing, which could end up hurting clinton or sanders. we.ll just have to see.

[Comrade Grumpy]

5. But not the same voters. These are Democrats.

[TheCowsCameHome]

6. Trump is #2. No doubt about that.

[dreamnightwind]

35. Well played

but I wouldn't roll on my back in it that way, ewww...

[merrily]

84. LOL. And?

[arcane1]

3. Does anyone know why they are still including Biden in these polls?

Maybe I missed it, but I haven't heard a peep about him getting into the race

[totodeinhere]

8. I think that officially he hasn't made his intentions known one way or the

other.

[still_one]

11. and that is the very reason they should NOT include it unless and until he declares. What does 8%

Biden mean if he doesn't run?

Would those numbers go to undecided, Hillary, Bernie, O'Malley, Webb, or Chaffee?

That is why at this stage the pollsters have to stop adding people unless they declare. That was fine before anyone declared, but by now it only serves to confuse the poll

It also isn't made clear in the article if Senator Warren was included or not. Hopefully not, since she has made it very clear she is not running in 2016. If she changes her mind then add her to the poll

[merrily]

86. Neither have a few hundred other Democratic politicians but they're not in the polls.

[totodeinhere]

90. But those hundreds of others are not the VP of the United States.

The sitting VP is almost always considered a contender.

[merrily]

85. Good question. Who paid for the poll? And why did the payor want Biden included?

[Thinkingabout]

7. And NH primaries may not allow an independent running as a Democrat, go figure.

[still_one]

10. I don't believe that. Not sure who floated that, but it sounds bogus. Sanders is running as a

Democratic socialist, NOT an independent

[George II]

19. "Democratic socialist", is that his party affiliation?

[still_one]

21. Senator Sander's is seeking the Democratic Party's nomination for President.

The DNC has made the following statement:

“Democrats welcome Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders as the second candidate to officially seek the Democratic Party’s nomination for President in 2016.

I do not see anyway Bernie Sanders will be kept off the ballot as a Democrat. Vermont is different from most states, and does not have formal party affiliation, but Bernie Sanders has said he is running as a Democrat.

[George II]

36. "Vermont is different from most states, and does not have formal party affiliation"

That is true for voters, not for candidates.

[still_one]

45. If the Democratic Party does not ensure that Sanders is on the NH ballot there will be hell to pay

and if they want the Democratic Party to implode they will succeed, and put the general election in peril because if they disenfranchise the Sanders supporters in the primaries that would be enough lose the general election

Let's assume 80% of Democrats support Hillary, and 20% support Bernie. That 20% can win or lose elections easily. Let's see how the Democrats can screw up what should be a good chance in 2016, to a major struggle

[Elmer S. E. Dump]

67. If the Dems screw Bernie - then I'll screw them by staying home. I'm serious.

I think that has to be the strong message to the Democratic leaders and the DNC. Whether you would really stay home or not, it's a threat that needs to be out there.

In reality, I will do everything in my power to elect the person I believe will be LESS destructive to what rights we have left. If it's Hillary, so be it.

But there has to be a believable threat that we will abandon the party if they start fucking around with us, and Bernie.

[still_one]

68. I won't do that, but have no doubt it will happen with some, and it will have consequences. The SC

decision today is just one important factor that highlights why it is critical that the Democratic nominee win

I hope that NO one running with the Democratic party is eliminated from any ballot, and this is just unnecessary speculation

[leftofcool]

47. He is unlikely to get on the ballot in Kentucky

Unless KY changes the rules just for him, he can't be on our ballot either.

[still_one]

57. Isn't it up to the Democratic Party?

[Trajan]

51. So we have a Canadian trying to limit voter choices ...

Much like the opposition party, the GOP ?

That's unpleasant ... ew ...

[George II]

54. Oh sheesh, the jingoists are out tonight - I was born in Brooklyn NY....

....and lived in the US for ALL of my 67 years.

[Trajan]

56. Well ... Excuse me ....

The choice of avatar might lead to such guesses ...

I was not born in Brooklyn, but my mom and all my blood aunts and uncles were .... I was born in NJ, on the other end of the GW Bridge ...

I love Canadians, by the way, ... just not the one's trying to limits the choices of voters ... There is already one party that does that ...

Let's see ... who else is from Brooklyn ? ........

[MNBrewer]

24. Vermont has no party registration.

How, exactly, is he supposed to run as a registered Democrat? Move to a different state that DOES have party registration?

The idea that NH will not allow him to run is absurd.

[Thinkingabout]

41. Perhaps he is only going to run in the states which does not require party affiliation.

Last edited Fri Jun 26, 2015, 08:50 AM - Edit history (1)

[MNBrewer]

59. Wishful thinking

[Thinkingabout]

63. So, he is going to change his party affiliation.

[MNBrewer]

70. There is no way to have a party registration in Vermont

Nobody has a party registration in Vermont. Nor do we here in Minnesota, yet, amazingly, Minnesotans are allowed to run on the presidential ballot in all 50 states.

[Thinkingabout]

71. Is Bernie only going to run in states where party affiliation is not required?

[MNBrewer]

73. "Party affiliation" isn't required in any states.

[Thinkingabout]

75. I found this information you may find interesting.

http://www.npr.org/sections/itsallpolitics/2015/06/24/416929786/this-quirky-new-hampshire-law-might-keep-sanders-off-the-ballot


Due to a quirky New Hampshire filing process — and Sanders' status as an independent rather than a registered Democrat — there are lingering questions about how easy it will be for him to file for the primary next year.

State law says that presidential candidates must be a registered member of the party whose primary ballot they are trying to get on. In fact, the Declaration of Candidacy they must fill out is fairly straightforward (emphasis added):



I, ____, swear under penalties of perjury that I am qualified to be a candidate for president of the United States pursuant to article II, section 1, clause 4 of the United States Constitution, which states, "No person except a natural born citizen, or a citizen of the United States, at the time of the adoption of this Constitution, shall be eligible to the office of President; neither shall any person be eligible to that office who shall not have attained to the age of thirty-five years, and been fourteen years a resident within the United States." I further declare that I am domiciled in _____, in the city (or town or unincorporated place) of _____, county of ____, state of ____, that I am a registered member of the _____ party; that I am a candidate for the nomination for the office of president to be made at the primary election to be held on the ____ day of _____; and I hereby request that my name be printed on the official primary ballot of said _____ party as a candidate for such nomination.

It's one of those blanks that is problematic — asking candidates to say "that I am a registered member of the _____ party." Sanders is not a registered member of the Democratic Party, having been elected every time as an independent. Early in his career, he made failed runs as part of the Liberty Union Party.

[MNBrewer]

88. Was Howard Dean a candidate for President in New Hampshire?

I believe he was.

He could not have been a "registered Democrat", as Vermont has NO PARTY REGISTRATION! Nobody in Vermont is a registered Democrat. Nobody in Vermont is a registered Republican.

[Thinkingabout]

89. The answer is simple, can Bernie sign the form declaring he is a Democrat.

Other states has different rules than in Vermont, as there are different rules in which voters also have. In many states if you are registered as one party then this is the primary you have to vote, as if you are registered as Democrat then you vote with the Democrat primary, two different registration books and if you are registered as Republican then you vote in the Republican primary. If you are registered as an Independent then in some states you can choose which primary you want to vote.

I don't really care the rules are in different states, there is a process to get on their ballots, either a candidate has to comply or they will not be on their ballot.

[leftofcool]

44. Can't be on the ballot in Kentucky either.

[MNBrewer]

60. More wishful thinking

[Ed Suspicious]

50. You work way too hard trying to shit on Bernie, his campaign, and his supporters.

[MNBrewer]

61. For sure.

The idea that Kentucky and New Hampshire could prevent residents of states like Vermont or Minnesota (which don't have party registration) from being on the presidential ballot is ludicrous.

[Thinkingabout]

65. Working hard to try to shit on Bernie?? What???? I did not make the laws in different states,

if that is shitting on Bernie you need to address those states which has created their own rules.

[winter is coming]

74. Yeah, but the desperation is comedy gold. n/t

[Thinkingabout]

76. You may find it is not me tryingot shit on Bernie, his campaign and his supporters but the laws

in New Hampshire.

http://www.npr.org/sections/itsallpolitics/2015/06/24/416929786/this-quirky-new-hampshire-law-might-keep-sanders-off-the-ballot

Due to a quirky New Hampshire filing process — and Sanders' status as an independent rather than a registered Democrat — there are lingering questions about how easy it will be for him to file for the primary next year.

State law says that presidential candidates must be a registered member of the party whose primary ballot they are trying to get on. In fact, the Declaration of Candidacy they must fill out is fairly straightforward (emphasis added):



I, ____, swear under penalties of perjury that I am qualified to be a candidate for president of the United States pursuant to article II, section 1, clause 4 of the United States Constitution, which states, "No person except a natural born citizen, or a citizen of the United States, at the time of the adoption of this Constitution, shall be eligible to the office of President; neither shall any person be eligible to that office who shall not have attained to the age of thirty-five years, and been fourteen years a resident within the United States." I further declare that I am domiciled in _____, in the city (or town or unincorporated place) of _____, county of ____, state of ____, that I am a registered member of the _____ party; that I am a candidate for the nomination for the office of president to be made at the primary election to be held on the ____ day of _____; and I hereby request that my name be printed on the official primary ballot of said _____ party as a candidate for such nomination.

It's one of those blanks that is problematic — asking candidates to say "that I am a registered member of the _____ party." Sanders is not a registered member of the Democratic Party, having been elected every time as an independent. Early in his career, he made failed runs as part of the Liberty Union Party.

[bunnies]

64. Dean was on my ballot. Sanders will be too. nt

[Thinkingabout]

72. Let me help you with this, Howard is a Democrat:

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Howard_Dean

[bunnies]

77. Let *me* help you with this. Sanders will be on my ballot. nt

[Thinkingabout]

81. Help me? I never said Bernie was not on your ballot.

[Thinkingabout]

82. This information may be of assistance to you

http://www.npr.org/sections/itsallpolitics/2015/06/24/416929786/this-quirky-new-hampshire-law-might-keep-sanders-off-the-ballot

Due to a quirky New Hampshire filing process — and Sanders' status as an independent rather than a registered Democrat — there are lingering questions about how easy it will be for him to file for the primary next year.

State law says that presidential candidates must be a registered member of the party whose primary ballot they are trying to get on. In fact, the Declaration of Candidacy they must fill out is fairly straightforward (emphasis added):



I, ____, swear under penalties of perjury that I am qualified to be a candidate for president of the United States pursuant to article II, section 1, clause 4 of the United States Constitution, which states, "No person except a natural born citizen, or a citizen of the United States, at the time of the adoption of this Constitution, shall be eligible to the office of President; neither shall any person be eligible to that office who shall not have attained to the age of thirty-five years, and been fourteen years a resident within the United States." I further declare that I am domiciled in _____, in the city (or town or unincorporated place) of _____, county of ____, state of ____, that I am a registered member of the _____ party; that I am a candidate for the nomination for the office of president to be made at the primary election to be held on the ____ day of _____; and I hereby request that my name be printed on the official primary ballot of said _____ party as a candidate for such nomination.

It's one of those blanks that is problematic — asking candidates to say "that I am a registered member of the _____ party." Sanders is not a registered member of the Democratic Party, having been elected every time as an independent. Early in his career, he made failed runs as part of the Liberty Union Party.

[merrily]

87. Your statement is based on a misunderstanding of Vermont voter voter registration law.

Bernie is not a registered Independent, any more than he is a registered anything else. In the past, he has simply chosen to run as an Independent. His choice was the only thing that made him an Independent, or that could make him an Independent under Vermont law. Now, he has chosen to run as a Democrat.

[still_one]

9. Why is Biden on that list, and if they are still including Warren, what are they polling. The only

names that should be in the poll are those who are declared candidates. WTF does Biden at 8% mean. If he doesn't run, where do those votes go?

This is why pollsters should include only those candidates who have declared

[Robbins]

12. well

we now know why CLinton campagin sent McCaskill out to trash Bernie.This is only late june and he is now at 35% In NH and first poll that has her lead in state down to single digets.

Bernie is being supported by men,liberals,and those under 50.

[still_one]

13. First of all McCaskill is an idiot. Your final sentence assumes NH demographics represent the U.S.

That may or may not be valid

[sadoldgirl]

14. It may not be valid, indeed

looking at Trumps position in these polls,
however, it makes it quite clear that Bernie
is not a "fringe" candidate.

[still_one]

49. Actually I would say no declared Democratic candidate is fringe, including, Bernie, Hillary,

O'Malley, Webb, and even Chaffee.

[Robbins]

15. Jesus

I only repeated what poll said about who is supporting bernie In NH.

You may not like bernie surging but those are facts behind who is supporting him In NH.

[still_one]

55. First I said McCaskil is an idiot. The poll didn't reflect that. I never mentioned how good or bad

any of the candidates were doing, and I sure as hell did not minimize Bernie's position, which is competitive and impressive. What I said is I have a problem with polls that include candidates who are not running at this time.

If you have also read my other posts I have made it very clear that if Bernie is kept off the ballot in any of the primaries the Democratic Party will implode

Where you came up with the assumption that I do no appreciate Bernie surging I have no idea. I did not even imply that

You also frame it as though I am personally attacking you, and that could not be further from the facts. I am critisizing any poll at this time which includes candidate that are not declared, and commenting on your last sentence which I took to be your opinion and not that of the poll. If I read it wrong then my appologies

[George II]

17. In a state that is 94.2% white and borders on his home state.

[Robbins]

23. so now

NH and all whites are ilrelvent according to you.

Since i am white then my vote is ilrelvent i guess according to you.

[George II]

26. Did I say that?

I was responding to your comment "Bernie is being supported by men,liberals,and those under 50."

If you're going to single out those demographics for Sanders' support, why not mention that he's NOT getting significant support in New Hampshire from Asians, Hispanics, or African Americans?

As noted by someone else above, New Hampshire is not representative of the American electorate.

And New Hampshire's population is less than one half of one percent of the population of the United States,

[Robbins]

38. The CNN own poll

mentions those groups are who are supporting bernie.

I see dismissing NH is going to be the new talking point of Clinton supporter

[frylock]

27. and...?

[George II]

18. I'm sure the Missouri Senator was "sent out" to trash Sanders in order to improve his polling...

....numbers in New Hampshire.....

[frylock]

28. Oh, I'm sure they were quite hoping for the opposite effect when they trotted her out.

[George II]

30. "They trotted her out"....rather presumptuous, don't you think?

[frylock]

31. Nah, I'm sure it's just a complete coincidence that McCaskill's same talking..

points were floated here earlier this week. Not a concerted effort at all. Nope.

[restorefreedom]

40. right and her mimicking the gop by the derogatory use of the word "socialist" to describe him

was just an off the cuff comment that was not at all meant to insult or impune him

[Spitfire of ATJ]

22. Bernie is also supported by people on Social Security.

[George II]

16. Tell you what, I'll take this seriously sometime in December.

[jeff47]

48. Psst...When you don't take something seriously, you don't post 8 times.

And keep posting after you decide to not take this seriously.

Keep shoveling the denial. It'll totally work.

Now, if you want to try and make this irrelevant, point out that the winner of the NH primary very often doesn't go on to win the nomination. Like in 2008.

[George II]

52. Some were incumbents, but....

...of the last 14 New Hampshire primaries going back to 1960, 10 were won by the ultimate nominee.

[bvar22]

20. Single Digits?

Man, Objects in that mirror are closer than they appear.


Shades of 2008.
I couldn't be happier.

[peacebird]

33. Me too, love it!

[Historic NY]

25. Kinda falls apart further down the pollling questions for Bernie....

health car - Hillary
terrorism = Hillary
foreign policy - Hillary
trade policy - Hillary
economy - Hillary
personal characteristics & qualities a President should have - Hillary +11%
strongest leader - Hillary

Bernie may lead in three other categories....but the above appeal to more people than just the left wing of the Democratic party.
people don't vote for a friend, they vote for a leader.

http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2015/images/06/25/062515dempoll.pdf

[George II]

29. "people don't vote for a friend, they vote for a leader" BINGO!!!

[peacebird]

34. This is why Hillary should be worried. Bernie has the confidence of his convictions. He is a leader

He does not hold a finger up to see which way the winds blow.

[frylock]

39. Clinton's leadership skills were on full display..

when she deferred to Nancy Pelosi after being asked about her opinion on TPP. Truly awe inspiring.

[Marty McGraw]

58. ( ._.)

[Admiral Loinpresser]

69. And when she voted for the Iraq war

because the "experts" thought she needed to in order to stay viable as a future presidential candidate.

[kath]

32. As Hillary's hundreds and hundreds of handlers shit their pants.

[leftofcool]

42. Yea right. It's a CNN poll which automatically makes it suspect.

[onehandle]

37. Donald Trump also in second place in a state that elects no one.

Bookmarked.

[leftofcool]

43. No kidding!

[RichVRichV]

46. What's really sad is

This NH only poll has a larger sample size of Democratic voters (360 polled) than the national NBC/WSJ poll (247 Democrats polled) being touted by Clinton followers all over the place.

[Babel_17]

53. I'll simply say, this is great news ...

I'll simply say, this is great news, better than I expected to see when I clicked on this thread.
This is going to cause a lot of talk.

Thanks for posting it!

[Vinca]

62. Hillary's problem is easily identifiable.

She's unnatural. If you asked her the time of day, she'd have to consult with her aides before answering. On the rare occasion she speaks, unscripted, from the heart she is very appealing. I think she is being "overhandled" and it's not doing her any favors. She would be wise to follow Bernie's lead and just tell us what she thinks, love it or hate it.

[RufusTFirefly]

80. I think she's overhandled because they're terrified what she'll say when she isn't

She says things like she and Bill were "dead broke" when they left the White House.
She tells stories about landing in Bosnia under sniper fire.
She says truly heartless things like "We came, we saw, he died" to sum up the U.S. role in Libya.
She's dangerous unscripted, but completely artificial and unconvincing when she's scripted.
You can't convincingly fake that you really care about regular people unless you truly do.
At least not for long.

[bunnies]

66. Im so glad to see so many Clinton supporters handily dismissing NH.

Its good to know our support is neither requested nor required.

[redstateblues]

78. I'd rather be ahead than behind

A second place finish will doom Bernie. Hillary could recover from a second place finish in Bernies backyard.

[RufusTFirefly]

79. Major case of wishful thinking. Keep pushing that meme though. It may catch on. n/t

[merrily]

83. Interesting. The headline goes factually incorrect, just to avoid mentioning Sanders by name.

Her lead over Sanders in New Hampshire is what's shrinking, not her lead over New Hampshire Democrats. And Sanders is not a New Hampshire Democrat.

The MSM are such lowlifes.