UT/TT Poll: Cruz Leads by a Little, Clinton by a Lot

[brooklynite]

This discussion thread was locked as off-topic by TexasTowelie (a host of the Latest Breaking News forum).

Source: Texas Tribune

...snip...

The picture is much clearer in the Democratic primary, where Hillary Clinton, the former secretary of state, U.S. senator and first lady, had the support of 53 percent of registered voters planning to vote in the Democratic primary next year. U.S. Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont was next, at 15 percent, followed by Vice President Joe Biden and U.S. Sen. Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts, with 8 percent.

“Hillary Clinton is still an almost prohibitive favorite, but with Bernie Sanders and Joe Biden in the news for different reasons and with the primaries getting closer, we see a little bit of movement,” Henson said. “I wouldn’t say it’s anything for Clinton to worry about.”

Even if the support for all other candidates is combined, Shaw said, Clinton still holds a strong hand. “It would take a bunch of stuff to happen to beat her,” he said. One of the other candidates would have to become a “credible alternative,” he said, and Clinton would have to run into trouble.

Read more: http://www.texastribune.org/2015/06/22/uttt-poll-cruz-leads-by-a-little-clinton-by-a-lot/

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This is a Texas State poll, if it wasn't obvious.

[hrmjustin]

1. Good! Hillary is on the way to victory!

[Chakab]

4. How big of a lead did Hilllary have in national polls before Iowa last time around?

Here's a reminder:

http://www.gallup.com/poll/102277/gallup-election-review-october-2007.aspx

[hrmjustin]

8. She is going all the way this time.

[onehandle]

9. There is no Obama.

This is not 2008.

[brooklynite]

10. Actually, Clinton didn't have a drop in her polling in 2007-2008.

If anything it went up slightly...but she started from a lower base, so Obama was able to skip past her.



This time, Clinton starts at a much higher level, so there's no room to Sanders to take the lead unless he can peel votes away from her...which so far hasn't happened.

[cosmicone]

15. Actually, Obama campaigned in small caucus states

like Idaho, Mississippi etc. while Hillary focused on big primary states. She won all the major primaries except Illinois but in the end, it was not enough to overcome the massive delegate deficit created by the caucus states.

She won't make that mistake again. Her operatives are already working in the small states to garner support from delegates.

Also, Obama was able to capture the southern state caucuses because he was African American as were a majority of the delegates. Bernie doesn't have that advantage. It was a tormenting vote for many African Americans because they consider Bill Clinton to be the first black president -- he was hounded, ostracized and harassed like an African American by the same crowd that historically was against African Americans.

[virtualobserver]

2. Biden and Warren aren't running

why is everybody polling for them?

[7962]

11. I dont understand that either. Might as well put everyone on the poll. nt

[Elmer S. E. Dump]

3. One of the other candidates would have to become a “credible alternative,”

Why is Bernie not credible? He seems like the MOST credible person to me.

Oh, I forgot, Jim Henson, of the Muppets fame, who is dead, just told us so!

[cosmicone]

5. Hillary does better in Texas than on a democratic board

[7962]

12. OK, thats funny.

[aggiesal]

18. We actually think, that's why! n/t

[Blue_Adept]

6. So 16% of the support...

is behind candidates that aren't running/announced.

I hate polling like that. Stick to the candidates announced and that's it.

[geek tragedy]

7. when does Texas hold its primary? nt

[brooklynite]

13. Part of Super Tuesday on March 1

This is where I fail to understand the Sanders strategy. Texas is geographically immense and extremely populous (yes, even for a Democratic Primary), and Sanders will have to spend time campaigning in 10 other States. I don't see how his speech-making/retail politics approach gets to enough voters, and a "the word will get out" response isn't convincing.

[geek tragedy]

14. That makes Cruz semi-viable.

Sanders approach is all about viral, grassroots, etc. It doesn't cost the campaign anything to have people make their FB avatars into Bernie logos, etc.

Will that translate into people showing up for a primary? I dunno.

It certainly could play a role in Iowa and NH. And labor could do significant GOTV for him.

Labor endorsements will likely matter quite a bit.

For example, Culinary union in NV.

[cosmicone]

16. Organized labor will either sit it out or bet on a sure thing

It is much harder for labor to not support Hillary because she is the statistically most likely nominee and one generally doesn't want to piss off a likely POTUS.

The rank and file may still go for Bernie unless Clinton comes up with a solid pocketbook plan which I suspect she will once the battle heats up.

[geek tragedy]

17. labor doesn't mind ruffling the feathers of a frontrunner, or a sitting president

for that matter.

AFL-CIO commanded a lot more fear/respect on Capitol Hill than did Barack Obama.

[TexasTowelie]

19. Locking thread.

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This article was posted in the Texas Tribune on the morning of June 22 and is more than 12 hours old. The article is posted in the Politics 2015 forum at http://www.democraticunderground.com/1251413082 .