Farenheit 104 (40 degrees C). This is a number everyone should know.

[FourScore]

Mon Jul 02, 2012 at 07:10 PM PDT
Farenheit 104 (40 degrees C). This is a number everyone should know.
by 8ackgr0und N015e



This graphic needs to be engrained in public awareness. Why? As I said in 2009, global warming could stop photosynthesis in plants we need to survive...

SNIP

...Since the US is the world’s top exporter of corn (about half the world's export), soya beans (about one third of the world's export) and wheat, damaging the harvest will have a global impact. This follows mere months since similar problems hit crops in Argentina, Paraguay, Uraguay and Brazil. As a result, the price of corn has risen 30% since mid-June and soy prices are the highest they have been in years.



A paper published in Geophysical Research Letters a few years ago, titled, When can we expect extremely high surface temperatures? (warning PDF) offered some sobering projections. Here is one of their graphs. Given the projections shown above (pay attention to the US Midwest) this recent news should come as no surprise. Yet, the current turn of events apparently caught traders and the USDA off guard. The warmer than usual spring meant more planting was done. However, what was a benefit has now become a liability as the heat, coupled with drought, threatens these crops before harvesting.

“The combination of low subsoil moisture, which is a reflection of the lack of precipitation that we had during the winter, together with the very hot weather that we’re seeing right now could spell a pretty disastrous scenario for corn and soyabeans,” said Hussein Allidina, head of commodities research at Morgan Stanley.

The seriousness of the problem can be demonstrated by the fact the USDA recently declared less than half of US corn was in good or excellent condition while 22 per cent was in poor condition. Even more concerning is the speed with which this problem developed. Only a few months ago, the USDA was projecting US farmers would produce a record corn crop this year.

The bottom line: The current heatwave threatens to undermine forecasts of record output after the most widespread US corn plantings in 75 years. This is only two years after Russia suspended grain exports because of droughts that were worse than any they had experienced in half a century...

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/07/02/1105470/-Farenheit-104-40-degrees-C-is-a-number-everyone-should-know

[aquart]

1. Famine. We still aren't linking the heat to famine.

We don't seem to understand anything until it happens.

Nobody here is imagining their children starving to death. Not here. HERE.

[kestrel91316]

4. I've been warning people for years that ultimately that is what will happen -

they laugh. They can't imagine it. But it will happen, and it will happen HERE.

[turtlerescue1]

2. Wish it were funny, could live with that!

Here we've had over a week to swelter, get those heat headaches and nausea-and the garden I carefully water at the sign of wilting leaves...the butternut squash just up and died over night. Just UP and quit.

Here's a lighter side: My first "A" in college was in Astronomy, only took it to learn the constellations. One nice spring time Sunday evening, was sitting out on the deck, and got shaken understates the response. Its always been a source of comfort to see that Big Dipper, good old Ursa Major. But in my six decades had Never seen it upside down, like the dipper was spilling out it contents. Add to that a friend of mine had told me about the "theory" the earth was tilting so many degrees. Stone cold sober, I cried. I spent hours apologizing to the Creator I believe in, and then started on my long list of faults.

Worked at the time in a school cafeteria, so bright and early Monday asked the Science Teacher. He hadn't seen it upside down either. Learned it is a spring and fall event.
Still it changed my perspectives. It will take that for each of us to understand how neglectful we have been and remain disrespectful of the source of Life on this baby blue planet.

You words won't be taken to heart until the famine begins.

[eShirl]

18. you got an 'A' in Astronomy?

wow

[turtlerescue1]

20. YEP!

And NO ONE was more stunned than moi! Well maybe someone, after all Science and Math were never places I excelled it.

[patrice]

26. That doesn't mean that s/he doesn't understand why, just that s/he had not observed it before.

Last edited Tue Jul 3, 2012, 05:47 PM - Edit history (1)

[CreekDog]

3. in grad school (in Tucson) learned a little about this...

try to grow something like tomatoes in late spring/early summer something interesting happens...

the plant quickly sprouts in the increasingly hot days of May and June and then after growing just a little, stays green but simply doesn't grow anymore.

too much heat.

also worked with cotton, of all things, one of the most heat tolerant plants.

we simulated increased heat from global warming and were told the results of that was the flowers dropping right off the plants.

you can't just change the weather and expect to do things the way you did before. first, when climate is changing, you don't know whether you will be getting the new pattern one year or the old pattern. second, you don't really have the experience doing things to fit the newer pattern should it actually happen in a given year.

something to consider.

[kestrel91316]

5. I gave up trying to grow sweet corn here in the Valley

after many years of success. It was simply getting too fiercely hot all of a sudden, right when it was pollinating. My last crop produced 2 ears out of a couple dozen plants, whereas I would typically get 3 ears per plant when the weather cooperated.

There were many times I measured 118F on my patio out back near the garden, until the thermometer broke during one epic heat wave.

[nilram]

12. The San Fernando Valley, right?

I *think* that's right, after many searches on 91316, 91316 encino, 91316 the valley... At first I thought you ment the San Joaquin valley ("Breadbasket to the World&quot , where I used to live. I live in an entirely different valley now.

This was cool (though unhelpful in figuring out what you were talking about): http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Valley

[kestrel91316]

22. Yep, the SF Valley. Hottest place in LA County, including

the high desert. We beat put Palm Springs on a regular basis.

[susanna]

16. So glad to hear this as a gardener...

Three things that made me a believer in the biggest way (I'm in Detroit, pretty far north). And, for the record, I've been gardening for thirty years, gaining knowledge along the way. Here are the biggest differences (and this is not the complete list):

1) My rosemary survived for the very first time this last winter. This has never happened. Always a goal (mulching, burlap, planting close to house), yet seemingly impossible based on our snows and hard freezes. Evidently it can survive. However: I didn't protect it at all this past winter; I'd given up. Let it go. It came back.
2) My mint has died immediately once planted the past few springs. That plant is a weed, to me, and will take over anything it can; I've never lost a crop until recently. It just can't handle these current temperatures. I've grown it forever and ever, successfully. I just now realize that I'm not a bad gardener because of this failure.
3) I grow beautiful lavender in DETROIT. Stunning, it is. Have only been able do it in the last six years or so.

As an interesting sidenote: I also have a new weed that I have never seen before (I'm 45) in my gardens, anywhere in this zone. It chokes everything it grows near. Luckily it's shallow rooted, but...I have NEVER seen it before, in 30 years. Where did it come from? I spend half my summer yanking it (don't believe in herbicides).

Based on the above, I understand what you're saying. I have to readjust what I know about growing green things. NOT easy. I'm often at a loss...

[CreekDog]

17. take a look at the idea of "heat units" and also note the minimum temperatures

increased average temperatures may not be seen during the daytime highs, but but higher minimum temperatures. some can be attributed in part to urban heat island effects but many aren't explained by that.

[susanna]

50. This is fascinating insight, CreekDog.

I'm looking over it right now. It explains a lot of weird things...

[EC]

29. I'm in WI

even across the lake to Muskegan. I had Calla Lilies survive and come back up this year. I always lift them after first freeze, missed a few that had wilted off and couldn't find where the bulbs were...well this year they are up and multiplied just like in the south.

[susanna]

49. Thanks for your response, EC...

I guess this is what bothers me: I'm an old coot and am used to things going one way, and when they don't, well, that concerns me.

I am trying to keep an open mind, but this is really disturbing on a fundamental level. Things that once were not normal now are...one thing I didn't mention in my post is that I think we might have some kudzu-type vine in Detroit, very close to me (I know kudzu intimately, my family is originally from the south). It's taking over everything. Now, it may be a native Michigan vine with a similar leaf pattern, but I've never seen Michigan-varietal vines grow this fast. In all fairness, the afflicted area is not well-kept, but still, I wonder...

[EC]

53. That would be bad

especially with all the unattended properties. It could take over real quick. Yeah, the whole thing does bother me too. Birds and insects are different, too.

[susanna]

55. Re: birds/insects...

I have some really weird insects in my biosphere at the moment. Have no idea where they came from; they are not normal for us.

I had a butterfly explosion with my lilacs this year - never happened before. We were able to get some pictures and figure out the butterfly (I'll look for the name and post it), but it's nothing I've ever seen before.

[NickB79]

45. I hear ya on the new plants surviving winters up here

I'm near the Twin Cities, MN, and I planted a pawpaw tree (otherwise known as a Michigan banana) in my yard that's so far survived 3 winters without protection. I've discussed it with master gardeners from the MN Landscape Arboretum, shown them pictures of it, and they tell me they've never heard of anyone overwintering such a tree here. Simply amazing how rapidly things are shifting in the past decade.

[susanna]

51. Weird, isn't it?

It's really only been in the last ten years or so that I've noted the changes, too. I'm that geek-gardener type who keeps a journal. Things I planted, how they grew, rainfall, temps, general info about the growing season; then I document how I bedded them for the winter, etc., etc. It's only been the last decade or so where I have noticed a profound shift. I am obviously seriously concerned or I wouldn't have posted.

BTW, interesting about the pawpaw tree...my grandma use to have one in Alabama. Haven't tasted one in years! Memories, there...strange you're able to grow it this far north.

[NEOhiodemocrat]

52. Here in upper Ohio

I had pansies bloom all winter long. They were even blooming under the snow at some points. These were not next to the house or any other building, but surrounding a yard tree. Now they look dead, I can only assume from the heat.
I have been concentrating on low water gardening this year, never been one to water the garden much so have been using all the tricks I can come up with to conserve our well water. (very old hand dug well, not very deep) I was worried about fracking wiping out our water. This topic is very eye opening, I didn't realize blooms can actually fall off a plant from the heat!
Last year was the first time I successfully grew lavender here.
I have been gardening for 40 years, guess I am going to have to do some research and start modifying some of my techniques.

[susanna]

54. Thanks, NEOhiodemocrat.

On edit: how many years I've grown lavender (looked back to my garden journals)

I think that's the problem I see. Others, perhaps not so connected to the land/climate they live within, via plants, don't see these changes.

I understand re: the pansies. I grew them a few years ago as a test to see if I was overreacting or imagining things, and they actually overwintered in Michigan. That's not right. Yes, they are hardy, but THAT hardy? No way. Another kicker: parsley, a biennial in hospitable climes (of which Michigan, historically, clearly is not)...yes, it overwintered. The next spring it grew to 3 ft tall. I should clarify that I'm in a weird "warm" zone of Michigan (5b I think) on the Detroit River; it's a little more temperate. I may actually be the proverbial canary in the coal mine about what could happen. (This could also be why I've been able to grow lavender for at least eight years. Yes, eight...I double-checked my records. I originally thought it was six.)

Much of this thread just confirms what I have observed. Everything I have ever known as a gardener is not really "true" anymore. I am having to learn from scratch. And this is dangerous, I think, because knowing how to grow food (or other beneficial plants) really does rely on repeatable, consistent knowledge. If that is being turned upside-down, we are in a very vulnerable position. Modifying our techniques will likely lead to more failures than successes. And then, where will the food be if we fail?

I am probably an alarmist. I suppose I'll have to wait until I can grow citrus or avocado to get anyone to truly take me seriously. But, really - these outliers/anomalies concern me a great deal. They seem to be happening as one-offs (at least as reported) for the moment, but if they become more widespread? As I have a scientific bent of mind, well, I do worry.

[dixiegrrrrl]

32. About those tomatoes

one reason I buy growing starts at the feed store in March..
down here, tomatoes don't "set" once evening temps hit 70.
which happens in June now.
The cherry tomaotes are very prolific in hotter weather, but the bigger tomatoes now need part shade
to grow, and stop producing early in our increasing heat.
So I cut the bigger tomatoes down, to about 8 inches of the stalk, keep them in the shade, lightly watered, till evening temps go back down, they grow and set, and I get a fall crop from them.
And also have to spray for blight in the spring..a homemade organic spray.
It has worked well for last 3 years.

[alfredo]

34. My Roma tomatoes are going crazy this year. I grew from seed.

[flamingdem]

6. Meanwhile the teaparty held a "book burning" for ACA

Teh stupid will kill us.. there are too many idiots and selfish pricks who get in places of power

[alfredo]

7. A visual representation

This is about 1 mile from my house.

[flamingdem]

8. wow

That's disturbing!

[alfredo]

9. Even worse if it was steel.

[flamingdem]

11. When we get there we'll know

we're toast

[alfredo]

24. Venus is an example of runaway global warming.

[flamingdem]

25. Venus does have Global Warming issues

Who knew?

http://www.sjsu.edu/faculty/watkins/GWvenus.htm

The planet Venus is often cited as an example of a runaway greenhouse effect and used to alarm people about the effect of increasing levels of CO2 in the Earth's atmosphere. This material is to put matters in perspective.

This explains everything:
?V/?E = (pV/pV)/(TV/EV) = 90/2.5 = 36

[alfredo]

33. So we are limited by the amount of CO2 in our atmosphere. It will get hot, but not Venus hot.

[joshcryer]

13. I saw a bunch of those on Reddit...

...it's crazy.

(I realize that's just a vinyl mail box but still.)

[emmadoggy]

46. Actually,

I think it's a vinyl post with a metal mailbox (looks like to me anyway). So the weight of the box was able to pull over the vinyl post when it got heated up.

Ironically, my husband is installing a new mailbox (vinyl post/vinyl box) as we speak, so I told him to come take a look at this - his work might be for naught.

[joshcryer]

48. You are of course correct. :)

I should've definitely said vinyl post! I just wonder what has happened to the vinyl fencing that is often touted as really good fencing. With a bit of wind at the temperature point the warping could be incredible.

[SunSeeker]

14. Holy crap!

[Ruby the Liberal]

28. Whoa!

Thats eye opening.

[alfredo]

10. We are the children of corn. We have become dependent on corn and soy.

[joshcryer]

15. I found this recent article about the Grain Belt and how it will "fare better":

http://www.dtnprogressivefarmer.com/dtnag/print/news/article.do?vendorReference=0702DA77

I'm not convinced (edit2 that the Grain Belt will "fare well&quot , to be honest. The Grain Belt relies on the Ogallala Aquifer, which will be depleted in 20-25 years.

edit: of course, there could be a pipeline from the Great Lakes to the Grain Belt but yeah, it will take a long time to be built and a Grain Belt drought can kill millions in a year.

[nebenaube]

31. no one near the great lakes is going to let that happen... n/t

[joshcryer]

38. If the Ogallala Aquifer is depeleated they'd have no choice.

I suppose they can starve with the rest of us, though.

[GliderGuider]

19. Do you hear the sound of hoofbeats growing louder? Sounds like there are four riders.

This threat is converging on us at the same time as the oceans are running out of fish, oil is growing ever more expensive, and the global economy is teetering on the brink of a cascading failure. And what are we doing about it? Burning more coal, of course!

The fossil fuel gluttons have now become the developing nations, largely thanks to the offshoring of our industry causing them to burn ever more coal and natural gas. In a classic example of unintended consequences, offshoring our industry is causing our crops to fail.

[truebrit71]

21. That is not encouraging...

..

[felix_numinous]

23. I wonder if building greenhouses

is a good idea to do right now. Time to think of a plan. Insulate houses, build hydroponics systems, ect. Truly, if this is happening, we have to adapt to the environment as it is changing. That is the only way.

[leveymg]

27. Anyone have an historical heat map going back a few million years? Just curious.

I recall reading that the world has been a lot hotter than it is today, but photosynthesis didn't stop. Anyone have that data?

[leveymg]

30. Here it is for the last 400,000 years. Current cyclical highs look more or less normal.

[alfredo]

35. It looks like the peak is lasting longer.

[leveymg]

36. Uhmm . . . very similar to my eye. Here's the data sources for these graphs:

CO2 has spiked to over 400 ppm in the last decade (and that is not shown on the graph above, which is based in data that is a decade old)(http://www.csmonitor.com/Science/2012/0531/Climate-change-Arctic-passes-400-parts-per-million-milestone), but historically CO2 peaks lag temperature increases by about 800 years, so it is believed not to the cause of temperature swells. Overall, the temperature wave pattern of peaks about every 80,000 years has remained amazingly constant. The article suggests we're due for a cool-off, if the pattern of the last 400,000 years still holds.

See, http://www.geocraft.com/WVFossils/last_400k_yrs.html

Temperature Graph Sources:
2001-1958: South Pole Air Flask Data
1958-1220 B.P.: Law Dome, Antarctica
1220 B.P.- 2302 B.P.: Taylor Dome, Antarctica
2302 B.P.- 414k B.P.: Vostok Ice Core Data 2000-1979: Satellite stratospheric data
1979-1871: S. Hemisphere ground temp. data
1871- 422k B.P.: Vostok Ice Core Data

[alfredo]

40. The human race is due for a shakeout. Weather related world wide famine

might do it.

I was in Eritrea (Ethiopia at that time) just as the great drought began. Starvation is a horrible way to go.

[leveymg]

41. G-d, I hope you're wrong. People did awful things to each other there before they starved to death.

Nobody seems to want to talk about the possibility that this too shall pass, and the world isn't about to end anytime soon.

[alfredo]

43. There's shakeouts in other animal populations when too many are in one region. You see

that in the deer population. There was a big die off early in human development. It nearly killed us off, but those who survived were smarter.

Here's a story from our local paper on corn and soybeans. BTW, I think that region got rain yesterday.

http://www.kentucky.com/2012/06/26/2238688/dry-spell-dampens-hopes-for-corn.html#storylink=misearch

[lovuian]

37. we sold our corn surplus to China

what fools we are here in America

[Kablooie]

39. I wonder when the right starts getting the blame for stopping any attempt to avoid this.

They still skate along denying global warming and proclaiming that if it gets hot nothing could have been done to prevent it anyway.

And people believe them.

[Amonester]

42. As per exxon-MOB-ill CEO, we'll just... adapt!!

Start eating PAPER (since PAPER MONEY isn't in sufficient quantity here), and HOPE my disgestive system will... adapt...

Can't afford GOLD BARS, nor DIAMONDS.

Any 'other' suggestions??

[alfredo]

44. Open a porn site online.

[emmadoggy]

47. Some dumbass on another site,

commenting on an article about the heat wave, said that he wasn't concerned about global warming because it is good for the plants.

UGH!