General Discussion
Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsLet's talk about the Senate
There are 3 probable D pickups in the Senate:
IL
WI
IN
Of these 3, IN is the most likely to stay red, then WI, and then IL.
Then there are 3 toss up states, in no particular order.
PA
NH
NV
Since NV is blue, and assuming Kaine wins VP and a Democrat is appointed to replace him, the Democrats must win 2 of these 3 seats to take back the Senate, assuming no other flips.
After this, in no particular order these seats are competitive but lean GOP currently
FL
NC
MO
OH
AZ
Thoughts?
CincyDem
(6,419 posts)At some point the state dem party will get the message that reaching for these old farts (i.e. my age) with a lot of perceived baggage (deserved or not) is NOT a winning strategy. I'm amazed that even Sherrod Brown has been invisible in his support for Strickland.
I continue to shake my head in wonderment that the same electorate gives us both Portman and Brown. Of course Brown is such a strong candidate and personality that he might just be carrying his elections in spite of the state dem party rather than because of it.
Grey Lemercier
(1,429 posts)we will have 10 or 11 very hard races, all defending seats, all in an off year, 3rd consecutive term of Dem POTUS
FL Bill Nelson
IN Joe Donnelly
MI Debbie Stabenow
MO Claire McCaskill
MT Jon Tester
ND Heidi Heitkamp
NJ Bob Menendez (due to criminal case)
PA Bob Casey
VA Tim Kaine (will be another Dem, due to VP)
WI Tammy Baldwin
WV Joe Manchin
only main Rethug seat we can realistically flip is
NV Dean Heller
Grey Lemercier
(1,429 posts)NV is probably Dem, although the latest polls are not so good
NC probably Rep (Burr is up 3 to 8 points in latest polls, Ross is running a bad campaign lately)
2 weeks ago I would have said PA, NH, and MO are going to go Dem
NH is now a dead heat with momentum for Hassan
Toomey is pulling a away a wee bit in PA
MO is is impossible to call, although slightest edge in momentum to Kander
If the Rethugs sweep those last 3, and the other 8 go the way I say, they maintain control 51 to 49, 52 to 48 if we lose NV
I think we take NH and MO
PA, total coin toss due to ticket splitting
gun to my head, I say Dems 51, Rethugs 49
GOTV GOTV GOTV!
JCMach1
(27,591 posts)Means control of Senate and probably the House. The Republican apathy (which I am seeing in TX) is very real.