No it is not close and no Trump can not steal it.

[Egnever]

Here is what George will no democratic suporter had to say before trump was the nominee.

He will turn to the Republicans now and say, ‘Your problem is the 18 states and the District of Columbia that have voted democratic in six consecutive presidential elections,’" Will said on Fox News Sunday. "Those 18 states, which include New Jersey by the way, have 242 electoral votes. If the Democratic presidential nominee can assume those states, he or she will spend the autumn of 2016 looking for 28 electoral votes, and he or she will find them."

It takes 270 votes to win. The Democrats have 242 sewn up and have had them sewn up no matter who the nominee was for 6 presidential elections. That brings us all the way back to Bill Clinton. We have taken those states election after election.

That leaves 28 votes to pick up from states that aren't solidly blue.

Florida all by itself could do it with 29.

Current polls in Florida

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/fl/florida_trump_vs_clinton-5635.html

Clinton clearly has a 2 point lead in florida. Certainly tighter than you would want but we have not had the debates yet and also have had a couple of weeks of email nonsense dragging her down. Still she is winning Florida if she takes florida the game is over for trump.

If by some miracle he doesn't get completely destroyed in the debates and Florida remains even a little questionable.

She still has a ton of other options.

Lets just use the map from Bush v Kerry



Notice Kerry has 250 EV in that map and those states are highly unlikely to go for Trump. So that leaves us needing to pick up 20 votes out of the rest of the map.


Here is the map as it stands today http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/2016_elections_electoral_college_map.html

Now by that map clinton has 229 EV in her column and they are unwilling to call the rest for her but if you look at the numbers a little closer, Pennsylvania for example is seen as a toss up but Trump has never once been ahead http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/pa/pennsylvania_trump_vs_clinton-5633.html

That is 20 EV right there which brings her to 249 again putting her within 21 points of winning.

Again Florida by itself could finish it off and likely will but if you discount Florida, Ohio has 18 and again Trump has never lead once there.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/oh/ohio_trump_vs_clinton-5634.html

That brings her down to 3 needed.

Hopefully you are getting the idea here, Hillary has multiple paths to 270 and likely will end up in the 300s at the end. By contrast for trump to win he has to run them all. Every single one of them. It just is not going to happen.

Here is the electoral map if you make the states they call toss ups take the color they poll at today.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/2016_elections_electoral_college_map_no_toss_ups.html

That my friends is a blowout. The debates are only going to make that look worse for Trump.

If he has proven anything over the last two weeks it is that when he has no script to read from he is a disaster for everyone but the racist base. Even with a script to read from he is damaging himself. In the debates he faces Hillary with no script and Hillary is about as practiced at Presidential debates as anyone on the planet. The difference will be striking and hard to ignore for even Trump supporters.

Yes something insane could happen it is possible Hillary has been torturing puppies for years and we will find out about it. That said the level of scrutiny she has been under for the last three decades makes something like that very unlikely.

Trump on the other hand has loads of controversy that can still be pointed out.

By all means get out the vote. Do not take it as given, get out there and VOTE! That said short of people staying home in droves this thing is in the bag and has been for a long time. What we really should be concentrating on is down ticket races. Those are very important and much more malleable.

[roamer65]

1. I agree 100 percent.

Regardless of national polls, we select a president by states and their electoral votes.

I don't see anyway that Drumpf can get to 270. His only hope is to somehow hold Hillary under 270 and fight it out in the H of Reps.

[FigTree]

2. Brexit polls were consistently favorable by an average of 5% until June 11th.

Or 10 days before the vote.

[Egnever]

3. Completely different thing

That was an up or down vote.

The presidential election is a state by state vote. With winner take all rules in all but two states.

This vote is structured completely different.