Trump will be the Republican nominee

[yardwork]

The assumption that his appeal will fade is wishful thinking on the part of the Republican establishment. He will be the nominee. Trump will win the delegates needed to win the nomination at the Republican Convention.

Trump appeals to a lot of people for reasons that the Republican Party itself created. Now they're going to have to deal with them.

[cantbeserious]

1. If HRC Is The DNC Nominee - Trump Will Become President

eom

[B Calm]

14. LOL, he will be toast.

I wonder who she'll pick for her running mate.

[cantbeserious]

18. Believe That Myth At Your Own Risk

eom

[B Calm]

20. Maybe Julian Castro as her running mate.

Republicans need at the least 30% of the Hispanic vote for it to be even close. Trump will be lucky to get 5%!

[cantbeserious]

22. Not The Big Picture - Trump And he Republicans Will Generate Unlimited Fear - Fear Will Sink HRC

eom

[B Calm]

23. He still needs the Hispanic vote!

[cantbeserious]

27. Fear Mongering Will Drive The Vote Away From HRC So Hispanic Votes Will Be Nullfied

eom

[B Calm]

28. The fear Trump will put out will energize the Hispanic voters to vote

against him.

[cantbeserious]

35. Not Enough Hispanic Voters To Overcome Votes Lost Eslewhere

eom

[B Calm]

37. Whatever, LOL. Like you don't fear a Trump presidency.

[Reter]

52. Yes but a lot of others will never vote for her

She does poor on indies and many of us here simply won't vote for another Clinton. I'm not saying Trump will beat her, I'm saying it's not set in the bag. It's gonna be tough.

[B Calm]

54. When it comes down to the end of the road, you would sit at home

and not vote and allow a Trump presidency? Okay, what is your agenda here?

[Reter]

102. I will never "sit at home"

I have only missed one election since I started voting at 19, and that was an off-year election when I was about 22. Not sure why you would think that.

[Evergreen Emerald]

51. Actually, it will not matter who the democratic nominee is--they will generate unlimited fear

[840high]

80. Hope you're laughing next year. Don't

underestimate Trump's appeal.

[B Calm]

84. If Trump is there nominee (he won't be) I'll be laughing, you can bet on that!

Look for Rubio to win the republican nomination.

[BlindTiresias]

110. LOL

[B Calm]

112. Jesus, that was so last year.

[bowens43]

30. I agree, hell I'd have a hard time choosing between the two.....

that's why I and many, mnay other progressives and liberals will stay home. The only politician that republicans and independents despise more then Obama is hillary. She will never be president.

[ecstatic]

41. Let's be clear, true progressives and liberals would not stay home

Nor do they share your outlandish opinions of Clinton and Obama. Nice try though.

[tabasco]

46. You must be too comfortable to suffer under republican regimes.

Must be nice. Lots of people lose jobs and benefits and many people DIE when republicans rule this country. But you just stay home nice and comfortable and feel really proud of yourself for being so pure.

[Starry Messenger]

67. This.

Must be nice.

[smirkymonkey]

88. +1000

I would like to see Bernie as president, but will definitely vote for Hillary if she is the nominee. Hell, I would vote for any Dem over a republican any day. The Dems may be ineffective, but the republicans are actively out to screw over a majority of people in this country. How can so many people not see that?

[yardwork]

96. Good post. Thanks.

[Cosmocat]

72. jesus christ

you do know Barrack Hussein Obama was elected POTUS twice, right?

And, if all these people hate him more than Hill, that means that, you know, Hillary can win, too?

[yardwork]

40. This thread is posted in GD, not GD-P.

This thread is about Trump, not the Democratic primary.

[MineralMan]

49. That may well be the silliest claim I have

seen on DU for a very long time. It is simply not true. If Trump is the candidate, any Democrat would beat him in a landslide.

[closeupready]

57. Yes, I agree, and also with the OP.

The DNC will be to blame for this result.

[InAbLuEsTaTe]

83. Hope it's tRump...Bernie will mincemeat outta him!

Bernie & Elizabeth 2016!!!

[spanone]

76. bwahahahahahahaaa

[BlueCaliDem]

78. Yeah, because he'll get more than 44% of the Hispanic/Latino vote, the percentage

a Republican presidential candidate needs in order to win from a Democratic presidential candidate.

I mean, Trump's been so strong on immigration - that deportation part, that is - that I'm certain he's endeared himself to that most vital demographic. Oh, and of course, Blacks and Asians just LOVE him.

Uh huh.

[yeoman6987]

2. If trump is the nominee, who would be our best candidate to beat him?

That is something we need to think about.

[peacebird]

3. Bernie. He has crossover appeal, and lacks the baggage of the Clintons.

[yeoman6987]

4. Whoever it is needs to prepare for a huge fight

[peacebird]

6. He's already in a big fight, and staying out of the mud. It's actually quite refreshing.

[InAbLuEsTaTe]

85. Exactly! No brainer...Bernie all the way!

Bernie & Elizabeth 2016!!!

[yardwork]

38. This thread is about Trump, and it's posted in GD, not GD-P.

There's a whole forum on DU to discuss the Democratic nominee, and this isn't it. This thread is about Trump.

[BlueJazz]

5. I think trump is going to be a LOT harder to beat than people here on DU think.

His appeal crosses a lot of lines and He'll have the money, the Media and a lot of the older generation.

[Fred Sanders]

8. The only line Trump crosses is the line between sanity and insanity.

If Sanders and Trump compete for the RW vote, how do you think that will work out?

The mythical "crossover" appeal of Sanders to insane RW voters fails to take into account the greater "cross out" of the sane liberal vote!

Appealing to the insane voters of the GOP as if that does no harm with the liberal sane vote is a gross out of logic for me.

[BlueJazz]

17. What you say is certainly true but I would have thought the same thing when Bush was..

..running for a second term. Also, the "machine vote fraud" comes into play.
..and finally, having read your posts, I believe you think the voters are as smart as you are...I seriously doubt that.

[Reter]

53. You do know that the Republican establishment controls "machine vote fraud" right?

Guess who the Republican establishment hates? Trump. They would rather have Clinton.

[BlueJazz]

86. Of course, I hope you're right. I was thinking that maybe Trump's people are aware of that and might

...change the strategy regarding his "Spiel"

[Reter]

103. I was wondering why the establishment hates him so much

Racist? Check. Anti-immigration? Check. Abortion? Gay rights? He's on their side. Rich? That too. Then it clicked. He's anti-war, slams Bush, and is against free-trade deals. The establishment on both sides will never excuse that.

[patricia92243]

93. Have you actually heard someone say that - the repubicans had rather have Hillary

than Trump? That is a pretty huge thing.

[EL34x4]

94. That might be hyperbole

But not by much.

The GOP establishment loathes Trump. He's not taking money from the GOP donor class which means he's not making promises to them behind closed doors. They need a candidate who will take their money so if this candidate wins, they're back in power again.

Trump isn't playing by the rules. He's not one of them.

[Reter]

104. And he's anti-war and anti-trade

This will be interesting.

[enid602]

106. Nixon

Nixon ran in '68 on a platform to end the Vietnam War. Of course, he was in communication with the North Vietnam Government prior to the election, telling them not to accept LBJ's peace proposals, but rather wait for his better offer once he became President. Of course, Nixon expanded the war, and kept it going until '75. So you can't always take candidates rhetoric too seriously.

[Reter]

105. Not the Republican voters

But the Bill Kristol types? They will never support him. I will admit that it was a stretch that they will support Hillary. But they would support a 3rd party bid by a Jim Webb type in a second.

[Cosmocat]

62. He's now joke for sure

I thought this was going to be like the last two presidentials where pretty much everyone in the R clown car had their day in the sun, but it was clear by August that Trump was different.

I still think the biggest threat is Rubio, if any of the actual politicians in the freak show can break through it will be him, and if he is their candidate he is the strongest on the primary.

But, Trump absolutely can win the nomination and also the general.

This country is THAT stupid.

[840high]

82. This country is THAT stupid.

That stupid or that fed up with status quo.

[Cosmocat]

108. S T U P I D

We have no one to blame for the "status quo" than ourselves.

We elect scumbags year, after year, after year, while not even giving air to real, decent, capable people, like a Howard Dean, this year like a Bernie ... We swallow repubilcan bullshit and elect their lunatic, childish idiots time after time.

It isn't THEIR fault, it is ours, we keep rehiring them.

Trump is just that times 100.

We hate what we have done electing jackasses year after year, so we are seriously looking at the possibility of electing an even bigger jackass POTUS?

If that isn't stupid ...

[shanti]

73. unfortunately

you may be right. i was stunned when schwarzenegger won governorship of California TWICE. never saw that coming....people shouldn't underestimate the power of celebrity. i worked with a woman who actually admitted to voting for him, and she was an idiot. she never gave me a reason why either....

[UTUSN]

7. Fine, so long as our nominee beats him. His contribution to humanity will have been

bringing the fall of the house of BUSH.

[randome]

9. I predict a floor fight at the GOP nominating convention.

It will be interesting.
[hr][font color="blue"][center]The truth doesn’t always set you free.
Sometimes it builds a bigger cage around the one you’re already in.[/center][/font][hr]

[Timmy5835]

10. Now that's just plain stupid

If Trump becomes the Republican nominee that would be a God send for ANY Democratic nominee. He's been successful with his base, which are basically uninformed people and he's been able to control that process. Once he get to the General he loses all control. The media and public focuses on policy rather then style. Once that process begins, he's toast.

[ananda]

34. Agree! Trump is my dream nominee.

Any Dem will beat him handily.

[yardwork]

42. My post is stupid?

[Cosmocat]

63. He's no joke in the general

this country is THAT stupid.

And, while Trump would not be the Rs first choice, general elections get framed to prop up the R and attack the D.

Also, I know my share of the same type of demographic with Rs that are Ds that like him, too ...

[saltpoint]

12. Possibly. It would put Republican

Party establishment types in an impossible situation, which would be kind of entertaining to watch.

On the other hand, Trump is a bigoted jerk, and most of us couldn't stomach him for longer than ten minutes in any venue.

As nuts as Trump is, I don't think he's as far off the rails as Carson. Carson is eerie when he makes those constant Hitler references and insists on multiple re-tellings of his "I stabbed a guy when I was a kid" tale.

If Trump and Carson stumble, the guy who could walk into the convention with a lot of delegates is Ted Cruz.

[EL34x4]

29. Rubio is the guy I'd keep my eye on.

I don't think Cruz is going to break out of the single digits, maybe low teens at the most.

Despite his conservative bonafides, he just can't close the deal with Republican primary voters beyond Free Republic.

[yardwork]

43. Rubio might be the VP - that would be bad for us.

[EL34x4]

95. Not if Trump's the nominee

He's talked too much shit about Rubio to walk it back.

I think he'll pick a woman as his running mate.

[Marrah_G]

13. Good news then

My conservative friend who has never voted democrat said he would pick Sanders over Trump due to our conversations and suggestions that he look into bernie's views.

[Beausoir]

15. No he won't. EOM.

[Motown_Johnny]

16. That seems unlikely

His numbers seem to peak at about 30%. I think there may be a brokered convention but I think Trump gets shut out at the end. He is just too crazy, even for them.

If he does win the GE will be entertaining but terrifying.

[EL34x4]

26. If a brokered convention shuts out Trump

And saddles the GOP with an establishment candidate like Jeb, I think there will be millions of pissed-off Republican voters who stay home on election day.

The message they're sending loud and clear is that they don't want an establishment candidate. This message is scaring the hell out of the GOP donor class.

[Cosmocat]

64. YEP

This one of two scenarios that possibly could lose the house for them (dr doze being the nominee being the other).

[oberliner]

19. No chance

He will be out of the race after losing both Iowa and NH (if he makes it that far).

[EL34x4]

24. He can afford to lose Iowa.

It's kinda like losing a pre-season game.

Lose NH, it's over.

[oberliner]

36. He hates losing

I think he drops out if he thinks he hasn't got a shot.

I honestly don't think he wants the job anyway.

[EL34x4]

50. I think he wants it.

When you've accomplished all your business goals in life, what's left? Run a country!

But you're right, Trump hates losing. If he loses Iowa (likely to Carson), he'll view it as winning strategically, reminding voters that the past winners of Iowa; Santorum and Huckabee, were actually losers.

If he's running out of steam past Iowa and NH looks to be slipping away, he'll know it and so will the voters. At that point, he'll toss in the towel once he can figure out a way to exit gracefully.

[oberliner]

58. It will be interesting to see how it plays out

It still amazes me that people take him seriously as a candidate - although I feel the same way about Carson and Cruz.

[Gothmog]

21. Nate Silver makes some good points about the Trump candidancy

We are in only the first stage of the process http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/donald-trumps-six-stages-of-doom/ I agree with Nate that when people get closer to voting, you will see voters decide that Trump is not the best GOP candidate

[Maeve]

25. I think we're already seeing Trump-weariness

His bombastic style, his lack of depth, his massive ego--all are beginning to wear on people. His popularity among Republicans appears to be stalling. And I suspect a real campaign is more than he wants--too much work for too long. He's won a lot so far--as gamblers sometimes do--but it's an uphill slog from here and I don't see The Duce as much of a slogger.

[Gothmog]

100. We are still in the free for all stage which is where Trump will do the best

It is the later stages of the cycle where Trump is likely to have issues and where the GOP voters will move to less insane candidates

[emulatorloo]

31. I think the big money and establishment have settled on Rubio as the Trump killer.

I have no idea what will happen. But seems like big donors are going his way now. Last I heard, Koch Bros were considering purchasing Rubio.


Agreed that Trump is not going to fade away. Much talk about how he was terrible at the debate, but the last post-debate poll I saw showed him out ahead of Carson.

[B Calm]

32. Rubio is their only chance.

[Cosmocat]

66. agreed on both points

I have felt for a while that Rubio was the most likely of the R pols to get it, and this last debate absolutely seals it.

I also think he is a VERY threatening general election candidate - he has the looks and while not bright isn't a complete moron like most of them, which is enough for them to pretty him up in a general, where the Rs and their media whores will breathlessly chant how much of a STAR he is ... He is an establishment guy, but has the veneer to him that the tea party types would be OK with him.

But, Trump still is the hurdle he has to get past, and while not as a strong a general election threat, he still could absolutely win if it gets the nomination.

[flamingdem]

79. Yep, the Kochs are pooring dough on Rubio, he's able to get some Latino votes (a few)

Rubio's the one so it appears.

[CanonRay]

33. He'll never get above 30%

of the Repugs. And he'll never be an acceptable compromise candidate. Of course, I said the country would never elect a has-been actor as President.

[Cosmocat]

68. There are over a dozen candidates

he does not need to get above 30% ...

[CanonRay]

89. Then it is a brokered convention

and he'd need to be the compromise candidates. Never gonna happen. The evangelicals and the big money will never agree to him.

[Jim Lane]

91. Not necessarily brokered because some GOP primaries are winner-take-all

If Trump holds at 30% or so, and especially if Carson keeps drawing well, then it could be that no Republican establishment type can beat Trump in those later primaries (where winner-take-all is allowed and is actually implemented in some states). Trump's 30% of the votes could be good for ALL the delegates.

For example, consider this poll of Florida from late September: Trump 24%, Bush 17%, then Fiorina-Carson-Rubio each with about 15%. If the actual voting goes that way, then Trump will win Florida and get all of its 99 delegates, shutting out both Bush and Rubio in their home state.

If the party establishment coalesces behind one candidate in a big stop-Trump movement, that could change. The establishment's problem is that more than one non-Trump candidate will have the money to keep fighting and will be reluctant to withdraw.

[Cosmocat]

109. No, it doesn't...

mean a brokered convention.

It all depends on how he runs the actual states.

30 percent in a primary in a state with that many candidates means he can win a lot of states and EVs ...

That said, if he is the clear winning going into their convention and he does not get the nomination, they will have an absolute insurrection within their party, and lose and lose BIG in November, not just POTUS, but the Senate and very likely the House, and they will see that ...

[BlindTiresias]

113. Woops

[CanonRay]

114. Yeah, me and most everybody else

even I didn't think the Rethugs were this nuts. Que sara, sara.

[tularetom]

39. As Thom Hartmann always says

The difference in American politics is no longer between Democrats and republicans. It isn't between "liberals" and "conservatives". Rather it is between insiders and outsiders. Trump is the ultimate outsider. Bernie Sanders is an outsider. Jeb Bush and Hillary Clinton are stereotypical insiders.

Voters are sick and tired of the same old shit. Many potential Sanders voters will vote for Trump or sit out the election if the choice is between two more tweedledee and tweedledum candidates.

[B Calm]

47. I don't see Sander voters voting for Trump, you do?

[Erich Bloodaxe BSN]

77. Not most of them.

But possibly whatever small sliver of them actually do 'hate Hillary'. I'd guess that far more simply won't show up to vote if Bernie's not on the ballot. We'll wind up with the same old same old folks who still vote and lose all the new voters Bernie would have brought into the Party.

[tblue37]

44. Probably Rubio. nt

[bvf]

45. No he won't. Some truly rich fucks will see to that.

[ecstatic]

60. Lol! Nt

[DFW]

48. I think it's the other way around.

The assumption that the Republican establishment will fade is wishful thinking on the part of the Trump campaign.

Who holds the nominating convention after all?

[rug]

55. It will be hilarious.

http://www.politifact.com/florida/statements/2015/jul/21/carlos-curbelo/clintons-really-did-attend-donald-trumps-2005-wedd/

And she'll wipe the ballroom floor with him.

[Agnosticsherbet]

56. Republicans let the crazies out at the beginning of every primary.

By March First we will see enough elections to know what the Republican electorate actually thinks.

[Freelancer]

59. He has the perfect mix of wealth worshipers and process saboteurs

Saying that Trump won't survive the nominating process sounds intelligent, but can anybody point to an argument they've had over politics lately with a Republican, where facts or intelligence was a deciding factor? There is nothing you can say to move most of them one iota. Republicans generally equate wealth with intelligence and leadership. Those who have been looking for an object to thrust into the gears in order to sabotage both government and the RNC have found their perfect tool -- Donald Trump.

It would make a good yard sign:

DONALD TRUMP
A Perfect Tool

[librechik]

61. Trump will throw a tantrum and quit at some point

he's not a serious person. he hasn't learned to separate himself from the character he plays on TV. And real criticism will one day have an effect on his natural cowardice.

It will be spectacular.

Or he'll be the candidate and female voters will slaughter him.

[Cosmocat]

69. I don't think so

I think he wasn't really serious initially.

Then when he took the lead got serious, and once he held the lead for a while, he actually thinks he can win.

Only way he quits is if he take a pretty big dip.

[HassleCat]

65. Chickens coming home to roost and all that

It is true that Trump would be the ideal leader for a government where Congress is well stocked with members who spend all their time trying to out-crazy each other to get noticed by Fox News. He has enormous appeal to all the old, retired people who believe they deserve a free ride in their golden years. His cranky outbursts and blustery pronouncements fit perfectly with the Zeitgeist of every senior trailer park in the country.

[moondust]

70. Potential wild card

is immigration/migration/refugees. Trump's base could potentially grow along with the rise of the xenophobes in Europe and elsewhere, especially if there are clashes or a major incident of some kind.

Heaven help us all.

[EL34x4]

97. Trump's "Mexico sends us rapists" comments

Should've buried his campaign. And then Kate Steinle was murdered.

He's been in the lead almost ever since.

[Logical]

71. Wrong and bookmarked! nt

[ileus]

74. Trump is going to hand the oval office to HRC, he's just playing them for the fools they are.

[ZX86]

75. Trump should be their nominee.

He's the only one who doesn't owe allegiance to anyone other than the people who voted for him.

Same goes for Bernie.

F#*k corporate donors and the horses they rode in on.

[valerief]

81. Trump is horrible but, at the same time, is the least frightening of the GOP candidates.

However, Trump has a better chance of winning than the others in the general election, so I have mixed feelings about him. Of course, I hate him, as I do all Republicans. They hate me and want me dead. Their policies tell me this. If only their were a war on the GOP.

That's why I want Bernie for President. He knows who are enemies are and tells us.

[womanofthehills]

87. After the last debate

Many think it's Rubio

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/10/30/us/politics/critics-early-take-on-gop-debate-rubio-won-and-cnbc-lost.html?_r=0

http://dailycaller.com/2015/10/30/analysis-why-rubio-seems-best-positioned-to-win-the-republican-nomination/

[Vinca]

90. Rubio barely escaped an indictment for using the GOP Party credit card

for things such as flooring for his home and transportation to a family reunion. He got a giant pile of money to write a book and blew threw it so fast he had to liquidate his retirement fund to make ends meet (at a large penalty). Then there's the bankruptcy and his dislike for working at all. The opposition ads will write themselves if he's the nominee.

[eridani]

92. Appeal is one thing. An organization to GOTV is quite another

If he gets the latter done, I'd agree with you. But I really don't see any evidence of it.

[tavernier]

98. Gosh, I hope you're right!

Because of course all Latinos will choose to stay away from the polls that day, as well people of color and intellect, and a few women who aren't in his beauty contests. And of course the the Christian coalition who don't really believe that his cracker and a Bible "trumps" (pun intended) his lifestyle of casinos and trophy wives.

[Stuart G]

99. Please ..the future is cloudy..After all, this is November 1, 2015

The Republican nomination convention is 8 months away, or is it 9 months?? Anything can happen in that time. too soon in my honest opinion to say who will win the Republican race for nomination.

[RandySF]

101. Nope

Bush, Rubio or Kasich.

[davidpdx]

107. I hope so, because if Hillary Clinton is the nominee on our side

it's going to be an interesting contest. People thought GW as president was bad, Trump is going to be ten times worse.