yoohoo, over here... if I might have your attention for a second

[nadinbrzezinski]

Last edited Mon Aug 24, 2015, 10:28 PM - Edit history (3)

the stock exchange shed 588 points after the Chinese market had a really bad day... and so did European markets.

They are blaming a slow down in the global economy. It is not yet clear, but this could be very serious.

Forget the politics (yes Mr. Trump I am talking about you, first out of the gate, not surprising), this might signal a systemic change in neo-liberalism and globalization in general... and that will change the dynamic of politics in ways that will be hard to predict at this point. (Yes Mr. Trump, this will make your case even easier... scary but true)

Now I return you to your previously scheduled fights. Me, well the Guardian live blog might give me a few tummy aches. but hell... glutton for punishment and all that.

Edit CNN money link

http://money.cnn.com/data/world_markets/asia/

Remember, to bring TUMMS along.

Definitely bring TUMMS

David Ingles ✔@DavidInglesTV
Asian markets open in the red; Japan still getting hit bad..
Nikkei -2.8%
Topix -3%

http://www.theguardian.com/business/live/2015/aug/25/asian-stock-markets-braced-for-steep-falls-after-wall-street-slump-live

Definitely looks like a correction

Patrick McGee ✔@PatrickMcGee_
Every Asia market ex-China is green now
Topix +0.6%
Hang Seng +1.8%
Taiwan +1.7%
Kospi +0.8%
ASX +2.1%
Jakarta +1.7%
S'pore+1.4%
China -4.6%

[Wellstone ruled]

1. Yes,

[pnwmom]

2. It's true. This will help Trump, I bet. If we have a worldwide depression

it will all be the fault of President Obama and the Dems in the US Congress.

That's what Trump will trumpet.

[nadinbrzezinski]

6. I am not sure it is going to get to that point

but it will help regardless.

What this is pointing to is the final crisis of capitalism... there I said it.

[haikugal]

10. Someone had to.....Thank Nadin!

[nadinbrzezinski]

15. You welcome, but two serious crisis in less than a decade

violate a few economics books if this gets that bad. I have to use the qualifier here. It could be just a think of this week, and that is what analysts are saying right now.

And if it does, the bullets have not been reloaded either, so the usual prescriptions that were used during the great recession will not be available. (Read things like quantitative easing and interest rates that are extremely low)

There are a few that could be used, but a few of them will require... a lot of public spending, to the point of going to debt and the end of austerity... which violates the principles of neo-liberal thinking. This is almost a religion among policy makers by the way. So do not expect them to easily give up on it.

[haikugal]

73. Oh I don't expect anything to be easy especially on the 99%...they aren't going to give us

anything. We'll have to take it from them.

[randys1]

29. How does that make Trump's case better? Trump is the epitome of what is wrong with capitalism

[nadinbrzezinski]

33. Watch and learn

he is blaming DC for this crap and people will believe him. Why? It is the ideology of the self made man.

In fact, next time they have a speech on the TV watch without volume. We did over two months ago... after you do, come back and tell me who he reminds you off... us, we got strong whiffs of Benito Mussolini

[randys1]

34. OK, but he doesnt win the WH, not ever.

[nadinbrzezinski]

36. The difference between you and me

is that I am taking him very seriously, Unlike most media I am not calling him a flash in any pan. If this is a major crisis, this will only strengthen the populist bent of Mr. Trump. And yes, under certain conditions he can indeed become the next president of the united states. At that point... I think looking for a way out of the US will be prudent by the way...especially for an immigrant from Mexico like myself.

[randys1]

38. LIke I already said, were he to actually get 47% of the vote, which means with the voter suppression

and vote switching and stealing already in place, giving him actually 52% (a dem has to get 5% more of the vote to win for these reasons) then EVERYTHING is done.

The livability on the planet is done, the ability to live in America not as a 3rd world person, is done.

So none of this matters at that point, because we all are done.

[840high]

63. Don't be so sure. He's

appealing to a lot of people.

[jeff47]

46. The same reason the depression made Hitler's case better.

Angry, desperate people are happy to throw blame onto others, especially those with no political power. Politicians can exploit that to come to power when they would otherwise fail.

Remember, the Munich Beer Hall Putsch failed. The Wiemar republic had to get a bit wore off before people were ready to blame the Jews for everything and put the guy who would "get them" and "make Germany great again" into power.

Though I don't think an economic crisis starting today could get deep enough for long enough to make people blame "Mexicans" and flock to Trump in a similar way. I'd be more concerned about 2020/2024 for that.

For 2016, the danger is if an economic downturn starts before the election, that is usually bad for the incumbent party - Carter's economy was actually better than Reagan's. Carter just had the misfortune to have a recession at the end of his term, instead of Reagan having two in the middle of his terms.

[nadinbrzezinski]

51. I think 2016 is possible, but that means a seriousl crisis

people are underestimating Trump at their peril.

Ah two minutes for Nikkei to open...

[daleanime]

3. I know, been keeping an eye on it....

And honestly it's quite scary.

[nadinbrzezinski]

4. I know, real life intrudes in partisan fights

now rude.

They have not set the blog yet... will be a long night am afraid.

[nilesobek]

5. I hope the whole economy tanks.

I've been homeless and penniless for so long that I don't care what kind of suffering this economic collapse causes as long as I'm not the only one. I want to break the system. I am a Wrecker from the Old English version of a "Wrecker."

Capitalism is a total failure. The Nukes are the only thing keeping it in place.

[nadinbrzezinski]

7. Oh imho we are at the point of a final crisis

and I am sorry you are suffering by the way, But some of the ways "out" of this will not be pleasant. Some could be

[nilesobek]

8. You are being very kind and cordial,

as usual,

I want to tell you that the people suffering from the first economic collapse, after 911, are getting used to it. We can live with austerity and total meltdown as long as we hold on, then we are taking over.

[nadinbrzezinski]

9. I have been reading a lot into what is going on at a systemic level

and one of the ways out... is... the rise of fascism and other totalitarian states. That is the not nice way.

Some is truly a transformation of the system... that one will take longer though, and I wonder if we have time for that. But the contradictions are deep... and part of the reason for them is exactly what you and I are typing on... computers.

[randys1]

31. What did Jesus say, something about the meek? I think we might see the rich

suffering and folks like yourself surviving as you are already having to do that.

[nilesobek]

43. Yes. But here is the wyrd thing.

They want us to apologize for losing. No apologies here. Not only that, I have no anger for the people who never had to endure what I did.

[pnwmom]

11. Hitler came to power during a chaotic time. It is just as possible that a crash

could bring great evil.

[A HERETIC I AM]

25. I'm sorry you have had a tough go of it, but I hope you realize something.....

If the whole economy "tanks" as you say, you are hoping for untold misery for literally billions of your fellow humans.

I don't care what kind of suffering this economic collapse causes as long as I'm not the only one.

Great. Nice attitude. You aren't starving to death, are you? Because that's what you are wishing for for entire populations.

For fucks sake, you're on the INTERNET!

[Ed Suspicious]

49. Sounds too big to fail.

[nilesobek]

50. I appreciate your reply.

Maybe we have to break everything in order to fix it. I do acknowledge your legitimate criticisms of my opinion.

I'm on the douchebag internet and I don't care. I'm only here to break this thing, destroy it. How many times have you been homeless?

It must be easy to give your opinion from a position of strength like you're at.

[A HERETIC I AM]

57. "How many times have you been homeless? "

At least twice for periods of up to 3 years.

That OK with you?

Position of strength? I'm a truck driver. I work up to 70 hours a week on a regular basis. I'll have to work till I drop dead, and I don't really expect to live to see my 70th birthday. I just hope I get it to the side of the road before anything bad happens.

But you know what? I have no one but myself to blame for my lot in life.

[nilesobek]

71. From what you said,

I think you are awesome. I'm quite ok with what you said. There's only a few of us really homeless who understand. I never made it back on "the grid."

When you have your back to the wall the only way to come out is to scratch like a kitty cat.

[JoePhilly]

12. Socialist Utopia, or Fascist Theocracy

Those hoping for total collapse assume their version of society will arise from the ashes.

[nadinbrzezinski]

16. Or both

which is what a few analysts have actually said is possible. If you will.. 1930s redux

There is a third possibility, but that will take longer and will require a change in how many people think.

[JoePhilly]

18. The reality is neither.

Nothing rises from the ashes.

The US becomes a 3rd world nation.

An impotent government at the federal level.

The collapse of social services.

America is a military for hire.

[nadinbrzezinski]

19. Well if you only look at this as to how it affects the US

if that is what happens, it is pretty much self inflicted...

[JoePhilly]

20. With the far right and far left cheering

They seem to want the same thing on the short term believing what happens next favors them in the long term.

It doesn't.

[nadinbrzezinski]

23. Myself, the crisis is here and it is partly due to hyper partisanship

the he said, she said game in DC has created a very dysfunctional government.

I am not cheering, but something will have to give. And it is not the center that will offer any frackling solutions either. Why? They are part of the damn problem.

Me. just fear for the future, but keep blaming the far right and the far left. I blame all, including the Third Way, which has pushed neoliberalism

[JoePhilly]

26. Far right center far left ??

You left out the moderate left.

There is no moderate right anymore.

If we blow it up, the only people who survive are those who are already well off.

The global rich can live in the green zones.

The living standard in the US increased with our economic standing in the world.

Remove that, and the standard of living crashes. Internal US politics will be meaningless.

A total crash of the US economy does not lead to an increase down the road.

[nadinbrzezinski]

28. So you are clear

I blame the whole political system which has become so partisan that they cannot find their ass with both hands and a mirror.

And Joe please point to me cheering a collapse of the system, But DC is so damn ineffective that yes, I could see that. They will not be able to do squat as they discuss the number of angels, and how to cancel medicare to pay for any form of stimulus

So have a wonderful day in that fantasy that the center will save all. As to internal politics, we are not even close to that point YET. I am far from worst casing this for the United States, but now I will. Worst case scenario I can foresee the US breaking into at least 3 possibly 7 nations, some of which will have armed troops at the border.

[ozone_man]

64. Depends if you consider FDR a phoenix.

If we descend into a depression, then it is much more likely that we see a phoenix rise from the ashes.
If the U.S. goes down, you can be sure that the rest of the world will follow. It is a global economy now. Or, if China goes down, or the EU, so will we.
So, who is best positioned to deal with the ashes? Another status quo politician?

[hunter]

13. In the nearer future, and once again, they'll find enough straw to cover the poop.

But they will eventually run out of straw.

[nadinbrzezinski]

17. If you read a few, they ran out of straw already

[nilesobek]

14. 2024 is our target year.

We are just trying to hold the center until then. There is a new candidate for that time, one who will change America. He's running as a Democrat and it won't matter.

I've been toiling at this task for a long time.

The economy tanking only plays into my excellent hand. As a matter of fact...we can't win without an economy collapse.

[Agnosticsherbet]

21. If this is really another disaster, people are most likely to blame Democrats

because it happened under the Obama administration.

Add that to the third term curse, and it gives Trump, or any (R) a hell of an advantage. And if people are frightened enough, look for long coat tails.

The question is more complex looking at the world stage. Each nation will pick someone to take the blame, whether the blame is deserved or not.

[randys1]

32. Dems always get blamed and the fault is always the cons

[PatrickforO]

42. Everybody BUT who is ACTUALLY to blame - the oligarchs.

[Agnosticsherbet]

65. True but irrelavant. It is easier to paint fail on the forehead of

The President and his party than to sell shadowy oligarchs as the problem.

[MFrohike]

22. Quite probably

Between the too-meager stimulus and the economically stupid sequester, the miracle is we've managed to stay out of recession.

[nadinbrzezinski]

24. Add to that the downward pressure on German wages

the Greek crisis, the automatization of production in China. this is not just one country. This has the potential, if bad enough, to blow the EU to kingdom come. Of course I am playing worst case scenarios right now.

On the plus side,. this might just kill globalization as well. Which could have some really nasty consequences short term.

[MFrohike]

35. I don't think it's that big

An official recession in America next year would not surprise me. All the numbers agree that we've been teetering for years now.

[nadinbrzezinski]

37. I do not think it is that bad either

and worst cases tend to not become reality, but a major recession will also violate the normal cycle of economics in most textbooks. But what is driving these fears is the anemic global growth, not just the United States.

[MFrohike]

58. Yeah

We're seeing a modern re-run of pre-Depression economic thinking. We have the stupid idea that federal deficits are automagically bad (despite centuries of evidence to the contrary), the loony idea that exports are the key to economic growth (as long as you don't look at the effect on wages, as you pointed out earlier), and the morally offensive idea that EVERYTHING can be fixed by offering yet another sacrifice to the almighty market (education, defense, health care, you name it). It's as though people like Keynes and Kalecki never existed. Well, until it comes time to justify yet another tax cut for the wealthy, then everybody becomes a Keynesian (though not in name).

I could rant on, and I was until I deleted most of it, but you are correct. Growth is weak because we're stuck in a period where our leaders think money is a scarce resource, rather than just a marker used to obtain resources. It's not a shock, given that the vast majority of economists cannot and do not account for money in their models, but it's still both unnecessary and sad.

[nadinbrzezinski]

61. We game, and the sacrifice brought a line from Warhammer

fantasy, another sacrifice for the blood god.

Now I have to go find the damn twitter feed on this... should be a LLLLOOOONNNNNGGGG night.

I also notice that Hayes did not open with this.

[JoePhilly]

27. DU common wisdom predicted ...

... a new recession every summer of Obama's first term.

Even at 15k, the DOW would be double what it was on Obama's first day.

[MFrohike]

30. Cool

Good to know that a reflection of share buybacks with free money courtesy of the Fed is an indicator of economic strength.

[GoneFishin]

44. Aww. Now you did it. You looked behind the curtain.

[Beta Male]

39. But what of Vladimir? What of Vladimir? (Original Star Trek nerds like me will get that.)

Oil is plummeting.

Oil has been holding up the Russian economy, thus...

Oil has been keeping Putin popular among Russians.

Seems that's about to change.

We are about to live in Interesting Times, as the old imprecation goes.

[PatrickforO]

40. I was thinking that this morning when the Dow opened down 1,000.

People are already mad. When the layoffs begin...

[nadinbrzezinski]

41. 15 minutes for the Nikkei to open

should be ahem, fun...

Stock exchanges are not the economy and at times they do this and things keep chugging along, like 1988. But in this case the IMF has issued warnings of weak global growth.

[ToxMarz]

45. Depending on what happens, it may teach the billionaires and bankster s

That in the end it's cheaper to pay your taxes, keep your money closer to home and invest in your own economy. I don't believe in a "protectionist" policy per se, but I see nothing wrong with protecting our own economy somewhat (China does theirs for all the good it's doing). And forget about the TPP.

[nadinbrzezinski]

47. In the medium to long term globalization could very much

be at risk. (Not that many of us mind)

[Ed Suspicious]

52. I think we could adjust and get on quite well in a more isolationist environment.

[brush]

48. Still too early to panic

In 2008 the Dow Jones high was over 13,000.

It fell to 8600 or so and the steepest one day decline was close to 800.

Today we dropped 588 from 16,459 to 15.871.

It was down quite a bit more but rallied late.

Let's see what happens in the next few days.

[nadinbrzezinski]

55. So far we are in correction, overdue by the way, territory

But the IMF is indeed worried about weak global growth

[SoapBox]

53. Maybe we could help China...

By shipping them more jobs? Or making them better deals to buy up property here?



Oh, forgot...maybe we could rush the TPP!

2 x

(I hope no one planned to withdraw retirement funds today)

[Codeine]

54. Nobel-prize winning economist Paul Samuelson said it best:

"Wall Street indexes predicted nine out of the last five recessions."

[Xipe Totec]

56. Would this be a good time to remind everyone that privatizing Social Security is a bad idea? nt

[ozone_man]

67. Yes, it would be an excellent time!

Since 2000, treasury bonds have way outperformed the stock market, considering the crashes, and who really wants their SS savings to crash when they might need it?

[PatrickforO]

59. I did have another thought on this...

What if the oligarchs are getting concerned about running against Bernie? Well, if there's a recession during the last year of Obama's presidency, the corporate-owned GOP can blame Obama for it. This means, traditionally, that the Republicans could well win just because...to coin Clinton's term: "It's the economy, stupid!"

So we'll see how it shakes out.

[nadinbrzezinski]

60. This is international

not just the US

[Dont call me Shirley]

62. A good read: The Crash of 2016, Thom Hartmann

[nadinbrzezinski]

66. Nikkei right now close to 3 percent loss

https://www.google.com/finance?q=INDEXNIKKEI:NI225&ei=ZLfbVdHEGMuJiwKW-7jYCw

17,846.89 -693.79 (-3.74%)

[chknltl]

68. Of course this happens while Thom Hartmann is off the airwaves.

I would LOVE to hear his take on this too. Frankly I am far too illiterate in global economics to understand what is going on here but even before this OP I knew enough to be concerned. Thanks. KnR

[nadinbrzezinski]

69. Well so far things are mixed

cannot wait for Hangseng. Analysts are saying this is what will drive this for the rest of the day. So far it still looks like correction territory.

[Darb]

70. Or its a long overdue correction that will pass.

China is still growing at 6 or 7%. Europe is a drag, but that Greece bs didn't help that. Overall though, things are not that bad. Most importantly, stock markets are not economies, there are a lot of scaredy cats in the markets that aren't in the actual economy.

I expect maybe a little more on the downside, but it will find a bottom and we are good to go.

[nadinbrzezinski]

72. well this is good, via the Guardian live feed

It’s going to be difficult to see where markets are going to end up today.

On the up side we have:

Hang Seng now 1.13% after 0.6% fall at the open.
ASX200 up 1.27% at 5,064.
Kospi up 0.36%
But on the downside:

Nikkei is still struggling – down 2.36%
Shanghai Composite down 6.19%

http://www.theguardian.com/business/live/2015/aug/25/asian-stock-markets-braced-for-steep-falls-after-wall-street-slump-live

[annabanana]

74. k&r.....important thread. . . . .n/t

[nadinbrzezinski]

75. And after recovery overnight in Asia

stocks up 350 on opening

[zappaman]

76. Whew!

So it's NOT the end of civilization?
Just like it wasn't the other times you predicted it?

[nadinbrzezinski]

77. Since noting facts is not a prediction

Last edited Tue Aug 25, 2015, 11:36 AM - Edit history (1)

by the way the global economy is indeed slowing down. You might want to go correct the IMF on that. I am sure they would like to get your take on that. And the worries of the Chinese economic slowing down are also very real. Care to go correct them as well? After all facts to you are something that do not exist.


It must be grand to live in a fact free environment.

I said in the OP that this was still correction territory. But I like to work with facts.

The other fact I mentioned over the course of the thread is a very real crisis of the economic system. And I did posit that if we saw a second serious crisis it would signal it even more loudly.

But you live in a shark filled fact free world. You got a reputation for adding nothing of significance to any discussion. Hey it's great I guess.

So I am still insignificant and crashing a political campaign? I think you will have a hard time topping that one!